2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

[Ianswfl]

Even if it's just a weak TS, the fact that we're tracking the possibility of a storm forming in the MDR in June in a robust El Nino year is quite alarming. This isn't something you see in every El Nino year, let alone many Atlantic hurricane seasons in general regardless of ENSO state.

Personally, I'm thinking like 2004 but a bit more active. I mean, like 16-17 named storms, 5 majors. Not hyper active due to El Nino late in the season. Wouldn't be shocked if 3 of the majors became cat5 due to the heat.

I also think the Eastern Gulf is at high risk once again this season. Due to this strange westerly flow. Wouldn't shock me if we have another strike on the west coast of FL. Also, summer in 2004 started off cool too. This summer here in SWFL it's been VERY dry lately due to the flow.

This is why I'm pointing to 2004 which was a Florida heavily titled season. Why I think 2004 a good analog.

Makes you wonder would we see a July monster like Dennis?

[Hurricaneman]

Interesting how the northeast Gulf has been below normal.

Arlene sat out there in the eastern GOM for a few days dropping the temps there

[Hurricaneman]

The Atlantic ssta’s are going to counteract the El Niño if the ENSO is below +1.5 due to the Atlantic being ludicrously warm which may make this season behave more like a neutral season rather than the normal El Niño season

To which I have to ask, could we be talking about a hurricane season like 2004 or 1969 or are we talking a season like 2002

[JetFuel_SE]

Interesting how the northeast Gulf has been below normal.

Eh, pretty shallow waters there, can fluctuate quite quickly.

[SFLcane]

Truly believe its going to be a much busier season then most think we can see some of the elements already. For who well that is impossible to predict 2 months out lots of variables sal, dry air even were genesis takes place.

[zzzh]

Rare to see tropical waves get lifted to the north of the Caribbean in June. Maybe we will see a big recurve season?

[SFLcane]

[St0rmTh0r]

more signs pointing to a heavy east coast year. lots of recurving storms though this year could be a 2004/2010 mix

[Ianswfl]

Interesting how the northeast Gulf has been below normal.

Arlene sat out there in the eastern GOM for a few days dropping the temps there

The spring like flow is causing it. Mark talked about it in his video today! Also why the sea breeze storms all on the east coast. If this flow continues it i favorable for Gulf landfalls. That's what got Charley into SWFL that cool summer.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PKZx70c3l1A

[zzzh]

[Category5Kaiju]

The Atlantic Ocean sure is trying its absolute hardest to impress us Atlantic hurricane season trackers in the face of an impending El Nino

[Cpv17]

The warming in the MDR has came to a stop for now. There’s even been some slight cooling in the past few days.

[toad strangler]

The warming in the MDR has came to a stop for now. There’s even been some slight cooling in the past few days.

Here is some context. SST's are still way, way, WAY warmer than historical average since 1981

[Cpv17]

The warming in the MDR has came to a stop for now. There’s even been some slight cooling in the past few days.

Here is some context. SST's are still way, way, WAY warmer than historical average since 1981

http://i.ibb.co/FHDTB9b/Capture.jpg

Most definitely 100% agree. This hurricane season is really intriguing.

[SFLcane]

Sure El Niño coming? lol Complete opposite of what you’d expect.

 https://twitter.com/michaelrlowry/status/1669432095133913104

[SFLcane]

We are begging for trouble with those extreme ssts.

[SFLcane]

Looks interesting for Florida and Carolinas and even in the GOM.

 https://twitter.com/WorldClimateSvc/status/1669719953677725696

[Woofde]

This is definitely going to be a interesting season. Very warm waters, with less dry air right now, we'll see. El nino trying to make it more difficult at the same time. Also interesting that the Atlantic "Enso" region does appear to be cooling a bit while the rest of the atlantic is very warm. No one season is the same as previous, which is partially why I love tracking the tropics so much.

[Category5Kaiju]

This is definitely going to be a interesting season. Very warm waters, with less dry air right now, we'll see. El nino trying to make it more difficult at the same time. Also interesting that the Atlantic "Enso" region does appear to be cooling a bit while the rest of the atlantic is very warm. No one season is the same as previous, which is partially why I love tracking the tropics so much.

I share a similar sentiment. 2023's shaping up to be a season that keeps trackers at the edge of their seats, it seems!

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1669889856389156865