Category5Kaiju wrote:Even if it's just a weak TS, the fact that we're tracking the possibility of a storm forming in the MDR in June in a robust El Nino year is quite alarming. This isn't something you see in every El Nino year, let alone many Atlantic hurricane seasons in general regardless of ENSO state.
Personally, I'm thinking like 2004 but a bit more active. I mean, like 16-17 named storms, 5 majors. Not hyper active due to El Nino late in the season. Wouldn't be shocked if 3 of the majors became cat5 due to the heat.
I also think the Eastern Gulf is at high risk once again this season. Due to this strange westerly flow. Wouldn't shock me if we have another strike on the west coast of FL. Also, summer in 2004 started off cool too. This summer here in SWFL it's been VERY dry lately due to the flow.
This is why I'm pointing to 2004 which was a Florida heavily titled season. Why I think 2004 a good analog.
Makes you wonder would we see a July monster like Dennis?