Central Caribbean Wave (Gulf Development?) (Is Invest 92L)

[perk]

I'm tracking down the feature that the models are developing later this week and it seems to be the wave in the eastern Caribbean (Pouch #16). Development may occur as early as Thursday/Friday, which is well within the NHC's 5-day outlook.

Wxman any chance Texas might get some rain out of this system.

[ROCK]

well if the FIM run verified we would see plenty of rain,wind....



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[ROCK]

the FIM has this missing the trof and then it rides the backside of the high up into Texas.....which is not totally out of the question since an August trof is not going to stick around very long, It is not even supposed to back door SE Texas. Also take into account if track is over Yucatan, and into the BOC...weakening could lead to lessen poleward push as it reorganized...just enoug time to for ridging to build back in

JMO...

[hurricanekid416]

Anyone think that this will be like dolly in 2008 or Alex in 2010

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I don't know ROCK. Think there will be a pretty substantial weakness in the central/northern gulf between the Texas high moving west into the desert sw and the Bermuda high moving east all thanks to our permanent summertime guest, the east coast trough, that will be digging down once again

[Rgv20]

Here is this morning discussion out of the NWS in Brownsville mentioning this possible disturbance..

AS NEXT WEEKEND APPROACHES THE MID LEVEL RIDGE RETROGRADES FARTHER
WEST INTO ARIZONA. A LARGE SCALE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND MIDWEST AND EVENTUALLY DIGS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THIS
SCENARIO HAS PLAYED OUT SEVERAL TIMES THIS SUMMER. DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS WILL BE PLACED ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND THE WEST
SIDE OF THE TROUGH NOT THE BEST FOR RAINFALL BUT A WEAKNESS DOES
EVOLVE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. GFS HAS ALSO BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A
TROPICAL FEATURE OF SOME SORT DEVELOPING OR MOVING INTO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE ALTHOUGH THE PLACEMENT OR EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE
REMAINS UNSURE AT THIS POINT IN TIME. MOISTURE CHARTS DO TREND HIGHER
IN MEAN RH AND BEGIN TO INCREASE THE RAIN CHANCES OVER THE GULF
WATERS WITH A THE GENERAL EASTERLY FLOW PUSHING SOME OF THIS
MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION. AM NOT TOTALLY CONVINCED ON THIS TREND
BUT GFS DID A HECK OF THE JOB WITH THIS CURRENT SYSTEM SO WILL GO
AHEAD AND BEGIN TO INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

[gatorcane]

Looks like the 12Z GFS which is running now is sending the system more NW in the GOM on this run. The 123 hour and 138 hour graphics shown below so you can see the northern movement after it emerges from the Yucatan:

[Nikki]

This coastal Texas gal is right here, paying attention I don't know enough to post any thoughts so I just lurk!

[ROCK]

I don't know ROCK. Think there will be a pretty substantial weakness in the central/northern gulf between the Texas high moving west into the desert sw and the Bermuda high moving east all thanks to our permanent summertime guest, the east coast trough, that will be digging down once again

If its stuck down on the BOC it ain't going to catch no trof in August...the trof is not supposed to clear the Texas coast...of anything it might just go right into MX....

[Dean4Storms]

Looks more northerly to me Gatorcane.

[Dean4Storms]

Yep, GFS 12z starts sending the Low NNE in the central Gulf.

Heading toward Pensacola and deepening.

[ROCK]

Depends on where it comes off the Yucatan really...and how deep this summertime August trof is...

[cycloneye]

Surely much more north than past runs.

[gatorcane]

Look out northern GOM:

[Rgv20]

12zGFS looks like a copy of the 0zCMC...



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[gatorcane]

Yep, GFS 12z starts sending the Low NNE in the central Gulf.

Heading toward Pensacola and deepening.

Yep Florida panhandle / Alabama area this run:

[Rgv20]

Its going to be crucial as to where this disturbance comes off the Yucatan, Northern Tip will head like the GFS and CMC, Western Tip will have a more westward path. Fun times ahead!

[jeff]

I don't know ROCK. Think there will be a pretty substantial weakness in the central/northern gulf between the Texas high moving west into the desert sw and the Bermuda high moving east all thanks to our permanent summertime guest, the east coast trough, that will be digging down once again

If its stuck down on the BOC it ain't going to catch no trof in August...the trof is not supposed to clear the Texas coast...of anything it might just go right into MX....

It is very possible that the end of the week trough does in fact push a "cool" front off the TX coast. In fact the latest GFS is suggesting mid 60 degree dewpoints in SE TX next weekend. It would be hard for a Gulf system to miss that trough, but there is a lot of time between now and then and the models may be too strong with the trough and front as can be the case this time of year. IT does look like the TX ridge will get pushed fairly far W which helps develop the downstream trough over the MS valley. There looks to be a good break between the SW US ridge and the sub-tropical ridge along the Gulf coast between TX and AL/FL

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

I'd put the odds at 70% we get a system, 30% we don't. Things look favorable, with low-basin pressure right off the bat. Sea surface temperatures are very warm, the Gulf should feature expansive upper-level ridging, and this won't be a quick-mover, giving it time to organize.

[ROCK]

agree...of it sticks to the BOC solution then the trof will not take it..Good thing is if it does go NE the great GFS only has a 1007mb TS if that...