Central Caribbean Wave (Gulf Development?) (Is Invest 92L)

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Will this system become a tropical cyclone?

Poll ended at Wed Aug 14, 2013 6:28 pm

Yes - on Wednesday
1
1%
Yes - on Thursday
27
26%
Yes - on Friday
41
40%
Yes - on Saturday or later
17
17%
No - it will not develop
17
17%
 
Total votes: 103

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perk
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Re: Any thoughts on chances of homegrown in the Gulf?

#61 Postby perk » Sun Aug 11, 2013 9:47 am

wxman57 wrote:I'm tracking down the feature that the models are developing later this week and it seems to be the wave in the eastern Caribbean (Pouch #16). Development may occur as early as Thursday/Friday, which is well within the NHC's 5-day outlook.



Wxman any chance Texas might get some rain out of this system.
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Re: Any thoughts on chances of homegrown in the Gulf?

#62 Postby ROCK » Sun Aug 11, 2013 10:07 am

well if the FIM run verified we would see plenty of rain,wind.... :wink:

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Re: Any thoughts on chances of homegrown in the Gulf?

#63 Postby ROCK » Sun Aug 11, 2013 10:12 am

the FIM has this missing the trof and then it rides the backside of the high up into Texas.....which is not totally out of the question since an August trof is not going to stick around very long, It is not even supposed to back door SE Texas. Also take into account if track is over Yucatan, and into the BOC...weakening could lead to lessen poleward push as it reorganized...just enoug time to for ridging to build back in

JMO...
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#64 Postby hurricanekid416 » Sun Aug 11, 2013 10:17 am

Anyone think that this will be like dolly in 2008 or Alex in 2010
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Re: Any thoughts on chances of homegrown in the Gulf?

#65 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Sun Aug 11, 2013 11:03 am

I don't know ROCK. Think there will be a pretty substantial weakness in the central/northern gulf between the Texas high moving west into the desert sw and the Bermuda high moving east all thanks to our permanent summertime guest, the east coast trough, that will be digging down once again :D
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#66 Postby Rgv20 » Sun Aug 11, 2013 11:04 am

Here is this morning discussion out of the NWS in Brownsville mentioning this possible disturbance..

AS NEXT WEEKEND APPROACHES THE MID LEVEL RIDGE RETROGRADES FARTHER
WEST INTO ARIZONA. A LARGE SCALE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND MIDWEST AND EVENTUALLY DIGS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THIS
SCENARIO HAS PLAYED OUT SEVERAL TIMES THIS SUMMER. DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS WILL BE PLACED ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND THE WEST
SIDE OF THE TROUGH NOT THE BEST FOR RAINFALL BUT A WEAKNESS DOES
EVOLVE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. GFS HAS ALSO BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A
TROPICAL FEATURE OF SOME SORT DEVELOPING OR MOVING INTO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE ALTHOUGH THE PLACEMENT OR EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE
REMAINS UNSURE AT THIS POINT IN TIME. MOISTURE CHARTS DO TREND HIGHER
IN MEAN RH AND BEGIN TO INCREASE THE RAIN CHANCES OVER THE GULF
WATERS WITH A THE GENERAL EASTERLY FLOW PUSHING SOME OF THIS
MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION. AM NOT TOTALLY CONVINCED ON THIS TREND
BUT GFS DID A HECK OF THE JOB WITH THIS CURRENT SYSTEM SO WILL GO
AHEAD AND BEGIN TO INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
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#67 Postby gatorcane » Sun Aug 11, 2013 11:10 am

Looks like the 12Z GFS which is running now is sending the system more NW in the GOM on this run. The 123 hour and 138 hour graphics shown below so you can see the northern movement after it emerges from the Yucatan:

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Last edited by gatorcane on Sun Aug 11, 2013 11:15 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Any thoughts on chances of homegrown in the Gulf?

#68 Postby Nikki » Sun Aug 11, 2013 11:14 am

This coastal Texas gal is right here, paying attention :) I don't know enough to post any thoughts so I just lurk! :lol:
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Re: Any thoughts on chances of homegrown in the Gulf?

#69 Postby ROCK » Sun Aug 11, 2013 11:15 am

CYCLONE MIKE wrote:I don't know ROCK. Think there will be a pretty substantial weakness in the central/northern gulf between the Texas high moving west into the desert sw and the Bermuda high moving east all thanks to our permanent summertime guest, the east coast trough, that will be digging down once again :D


If its stuck down on the BOC it ain't going to catch no trof in August...the trof is not supposed to clear the Texas coast...of anything it might just go right into MX....
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#70 Postby Dean4Storms » Sun Aug 11, 2013 11:15 am

Looks more northerly to me Gatorcane.
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#71 Postby Dean4Storms » Sun Aug 11, 2013 11:17 am

Yep, GFS 12z starts sending the Low NNE in the central Gulf.

Heading toward Pensacola and deepening.
Last edited by Dean4Storms on Sun Aug 11, 2013 11:18 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Any thoughts on chances of homegrown in the Gulf?

#72 Postby ROCK » Sun Aug 11, 2013 11:17 am

Depends on where it comes off the Yucatan really...and how deep this summertime August trof is...
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Re: Any thoughts on chances of homegrown in the Gulf?

#73 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 11, 2013 11:18 am

Surely much more north than past runs.

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#74 Postby gatorcane » Sun Aug 11, 2013 11:18 am

Look out northern GOM:

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#75 Postby Rgv20 » Sun Aug 11, 2013 11:19 am

12zGFS looks like a copy of the 0zCMC...

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Re:

#76 Postby gatorcane » Sun Aug 11, 2013 11:21 am

Dean4Storms wrote:Yep, GFS 12z starts sending the Low NNE in the central Gulf.

Heading toward Pensacola and deepening.


Yep Florida panhandle / Alabama area this run:

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Last edited by gatorcane on Sun Aug 11, 2013 11:27 am, edited 4 times in total.
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#77 Postby Rgv20 » Sun Aug 11, 2013 11:22 am

Its going to be crucial as to where this disturbance comes off the Yucatan, Northern Tip will head like the GFS and CMC, Western Tip will have a more westward path. Fun times ahead!
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Re: Any thoughts on chances of homegrown in the Gulf?

#78 Postby jeff » Sun Aug 11, 2013 11:23 am

ROCK wrote:
CYCLONE MIKE wrote:I don't know ROCK. Think there will be a pretty substantial weakness in the central/northern gulf between the Texas high moving west into the desert sw and the Bermuda high moving east all thanks to our permanent summertime guest, the east coast trough, that will be digging down once again :D


If its stuck down on the BOC it ain't going to catch no trof in August...the trof is not supposed to clear the Texas coast...of anything it might just go right into MX....


It is very possible that the end of the week trough does in fact push a "cool" front off the TX coast. In fact the latest GFS is suggesting mid 60 degree dewpoints in SE TX next weekend. It would be hard for a Gulf system to miss that trough, but there is a lot of time between now and then and the models may be too strong with the trough and front as can be the case this time of year. IT does look like the TX ridge will get pushed fairly far W which helps develop the downstream trough over the MS valley. There looks to be a good break between the SW US ridge and the sub-tropical ridge along the Gulf coast between TX and AL/FL
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#79 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Sun Aug 11, 2013 11:24 am

I'd put the odds at 70% we get a system, 30% we don't. Things look favorable, with low-basin pressure right off the bat. Sea surface temperatures are very warm, the Gulf should feature expansive upper-level ridging, and this won't be a quick-mover, giving it time to organize.
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Re: Any thoughts on chances of homegrown in the Gulf?

#80 Postby ROCK » Sun Aug 11, 2013 11:26 am

:uarrow: agree...of it sticks to the BOC solution then the trof will not take it..Good thing is if it does go NE the great GFS only has a 1007mb TS if that...
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