TD 24,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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Derek Ortt

#61 Postby Derek Ortt » Sat Oct 15, 2005 5:53 pm

Most of Miami's hurricanes come form the south or SW
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LAwxrgal
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#62 Postby LAwxrgal » Sat Oct 15, 2005 5:54 pm

x-y-no wrote:
LAwxrgal wrote: :eek:

Is that showing a major cane hit on Miami... from the SOUTHWEST????


Well, it's showing a hurricane hitting Miami from the SW. Doesn't show a major, but as I said earlier the GFS doesn't model mesoscale cyclone dynamics at all so intensity is generally way off.


K gotcha. Thanks.
Last edited by LAwxrgal on Sat Oct 15, 2005 5:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#63 Postby JamesFromMaine2 » Sat Oct 15, 2005 5:54 pm

IMO its going to be atleast 35mph at 11pm recon is finding enough 35+ winds to increase it at 11pm!
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#64 Postby x-y-no » Sat Oct 15, 2005 5:54 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:Most of Miami's hurricanes come form the south or SW


Yep.

Strange that most people's perception is different than that.
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#65 Postby tracyswfla » Sat Oct 15, 2005 5:59 pm

ChaserUK wrote:I think we will have a major before then to be honest. 5 days max. Not sure GFDL has the speed and evolution spot on.




Brilliant.... :eek:
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#66 Postby LAwxrgal » Sat Oct 15, 2005 6:02 pm

I posted this in another thread: From the looks of it potential "Wilma" could be a fairly large hurricane, not Rita/Katrina big but still fairly large. Not only large but dangerous. Everybody (especially in the E Gulf) needs to keep an eye on this system.
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#67 Postby Brent » Sat Oct 15, 2005 6:04 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:Most of Miami's hurricanes come form the south or SW


Yep...
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#68 Postby mtm4319 » Sat Oct 15, 2005 6:08 pm

x-y-no wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:Most of Miami's hurricanes come form the south or SW


Yep.

Strange that most people's perception is different than that.


It's not to me. When most people think of a south Florida hurricane, they think of Andrew, and that hit from the east.
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truballer#1

#69 Postby truballer#1 » Sat Oct 15, 2005 6:12 pm

has jb said anything about td 24?
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CHRISTY

#70 Postby CHRISTY » Sat Oct 15, 2005 6:13 pm

is a south florida landfall that likely?is that upcoming front going to be that strong?
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#71 Postby x-y-no » Sat Oct 15, 2005 6:15 pm

truballer#1 wrote:has jb said anything about td 24?


Well, some folks posted a few days ago that he was calling for western Caribbean development which would eventually become a Florida threat.

Good call, I'd say.
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#72 Postby mike815 » Sat Oct 15, 2005 6:15 pm

yes definently
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#73 Postby Noah » Sat Oct 15, 2005 6:15 pm

so many people are saying eastern gulf, they talking west florida somewhere? Is this something to really gt concerned about here is sarasota? Im 75 miles south of tampa.. considered part of the bay area. Im getting nervous. :(
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truballer#1

#74 Postby truballer#1 » Sat Oct 15, 2005 6:16 pm

when the new gfdl comin out?
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#75 Postby x-y-no » Sat Oct 15, 2005 6:16 pm

CHRISTY wrote:is a south florida landfall that likely?is that upcoming front going to be that strong?


Six to seven days out - everything is highly uncertain at this point.
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#76 Postby x-y-no » Sat Oct 15, 2005 6:17 pm

Noah wrote:so many people are saying eastern gulf, they talking west florida somewhere? Is this something to really gt concerned about here is sarasota? Im 75 miles south of tampa.. considered part of the bay area. Im getting nervous. :(


I'm about equally concerned for your area as I am for mine at this point.
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CHRISTY

#77 Postby CHRISTY » Sat Oct 15, 2005 6:18 pm

that gfs image shows a monster coming towards the north... anybody has info on this trough?
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#78 Postby SkeetoBite » Sat Oct 15, 2005 6:31 pm

Floater now on TD #24

Visible | IR Channel | Water Vapor
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#79 Postby MzShell » Sat Oct 15, 2005 6:38 pm

x-y-no wrote:
truballer#1 wrote:has jb said anything about td 24?


Well, some folks posted a few days ago that he was calling for western Caribbean development which would eventually become a Florida threat.

Good call, I'd say.


I remember BigMike posting a thread that JB forcasted a FL cane in the near future. Everyone was bashing JB. Guess he was right afterall. :)
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CHRISTY

#80 Postby CHRISTY » Sat Oct 15, 2005 6:40 pm

that guy is something else!!!
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