TD 24,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Locked
Message
Author
Derek Ortt

#61 Postby Derek Ortt » Sat Oct 15, 2005 5:53 pm

Most of Miami's hurricanes come form the south or SW
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
LAwxrgal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1763
Joined: Tue Jul 06, 2004 1:05 pm
Location: Reserve, LA (30 mi west of NOLA)

#62 Postby LAwxrgal » Sat Oct 15, 2005 5:54 pm

x-y-no wrote:
LAwxrgal wrote: :eek:

Is that showing a major cane hit on Miami... from the SOUTHWEST????


Well, it's showing a hurricane hitting Miami from the SW. Doesn't show a major, but as I said earlier the GFS doesn't model mesoscale cyclone dynamics at all so intensity is generally way off.


K gotcha. Thanks.
Last edited by LAwxrgal on Sat Oct 15, 2005 5:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Andrew 92/Isidore & Lili 02/Bill 03/Katrina & Rita 05/Gustav & Ike 08/Isaac 12 (flooded my house)/Harvey 17/Barry 19/Cristobal 20/Claudette 21/Ida 21 (In the Eye)/Francine 24
Wake me up when November ends
Top
User avatar
JamesFromMaine2
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 989
Joined: Tue Jul 19, 2005 1:38 am
Location: Portland Maine USA
Contact:
Contact JamesFromMaine2

#63 Postby JamesFromMaine2 » Sat Oct 15, 2005 5:54 pm

IMO its going to be atleast 35mph at 11pm recon is finding enough 35+ winds to increase it at 11pm!
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
x-y-no
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8359
Age: 65
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2004 12:14 pm
Location: Fort Lauderdale, FL

#64 Postby x-y-no » Sat Oct 15, 2005 5:54 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:Most of Miami's hurricanes come form the south or SW


Yep.

Strange that most people's perception is different than that.
0 likes   
Top
tracyswfla
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 792
Joined: Tue May 18, 2004 1:19 pm
Location: Rochester, NY

#65 Postby tracyswfla » Sat Oct 15, 2005 5:59 pm

ChaserUK wrote:I think we will have a major before then to be honest. 5 days max. Not sure GFDL has the speed and evolution spot on.




Brilliant.... :eek:
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
LAwxrgal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1763
Joined: Tue Jul 06, 2004 1:05 pm
Location: Reserve, LA (30 mi west of NOLA)

#66 Postby LAwxrgal » Sat Oct 15, 2005 6:02 pm

I posted this in another thread: From the looks of it potential "Wilma" could be a fairly large hurricane, not Rita/Katrina big but still fairly large. Not only large but dangerous. Everybody (especially in the E Gulf) needs to keep an eye on this system.
0 likes   
Andrew 92/Isidore & Lili 02/Bill 03/Katrina & Rita 05/Gustav & Ike 08/Isaac 12 (flooded my house)/Harvey 17/Barry 19/Cristobal 20/Claudette 21/Ida 21 (In the Eye)/Francine 24
Wake me up when November ends
Top
Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38100
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:
Contact Brent

#67 Postby Brent » Sat Oct 15, 2005 6:04 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:Most of Miami's hurricanes come form the south or SW


Yep...
0 likes   
#neversummer
Top
mtm4319
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1537
Joined: Sun Sep 12, 2004 2:47 am
Location: Mobile, AL

#68 Postby mtm4319 » Sat Oct 15, 2005 6:08 pm

x-y-no wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:Most of Miami's hurricanes come form the south or SW


Yep.

Strange that most people's perception is different than that.


It's not to me. When most people think of a south Florida hurricane, they think of Andrew, and that hit from the east.
0 likes   
Top
truballer#1

#69 Postby truballer#1 » Sat Oct 15, 2005 6:12 pm

has jb said anything about td 24?
0 likes   
Top
CHRISTY

#70 Postby CHRISTY » Sat Oct 15, 2005 6:13 pm

is a south florida landfall that likely?is that upcoming front going to be that strong?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
x-y-no
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8359
Age: 65
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2004 12:14 pm
Location: Fort Lauderdale, FL

#71 Postby x-y-no » Sat Oct 15, 2005 6:15 pm

truballer#1 wrote:has jb said anything about td 24?


Well, some folks posted a few days ago that he was calling for western Caribbean development which would eventually become a Florida threat.

Good call, I'd say.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
mike815
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1460
Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 8:21 am
Location: palm bay fl

#72 Postby mike815 » Sat Oct 15, 2005 6:15 pm

yes definently
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Noah
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 541
Joined: Fri Sep 24, 2004 10:41 am
Location: Sarasota FL

#73 Postby Noah » Sat Oct 15, 2005 6:15 pm

so many people are saying eastern gulf, they talking west florida somewhere? Is this something to really gt concerned about here is sarasota? Im 75 miles south of tampa.. considered part of the bay area. Im getting nervous. :(
0 likes   
Top
truballer#1

#74 Postby truballer#1 » Sat Oct 15, 2005 6:16 pm

when the new gfdl comin out?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
x-y-no
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8359
Age: 65
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2004 12:14 pm
Location: Fort Lauderdale, FL

#75 Postby x-y-no » Sat Oct 15, 2005 6:16 pm

CHRISTY wrote:is a south florida landfall that likely?is that upcoming front going to be that strong?


Six to seven days out - everything is highly uncertain at this point.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
x-y-no
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8359
Age: 65
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2004 12:14 pm
Location: Fort Lauderdale, FL

#76 Postby x-y-no » Sat Oct 15, 2005 6:17 pm

Noah wrote:so many people are saying eastern gulf, they talking west florida somewhere? Is this something to really gt concerned about here is sarasota? Im 75 miles south of tampa.. considered part of the bay area. Im getting nervous. :(


I'm about equally concerned for your area as I am for mine at this point.
0 likes   
Top
CHRISTY

#77 Postby CHRISTY » Sat Oct 15, 2005 6:18 pm

that gfs image shows a monster coming towards the north... anybody has info on this trough?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
SkeetoBite
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 515
Age: 59
Joined: Fri Sep 03, 2004 8:25 am
Contact:
Contact SkeetoBite

#78 Postby SkeetoBite » Sat Oct 15, 2005 6:31 pm

Floater now on TD #24

Visible | IR Channel | Water Vapor
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
MzShell
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 24
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 8:08 pm
Location: Columbia, SC

#79 Postby MzShell » Sat Oct 15, 2005 6:38 pm

x-y-no wrote:
truballer#1 wrote:has jb said anything about td 24?


Well, some folks posted a few days ago that he was calling for western Caribbean development which would eventually become a Florida threat.

Good call, I'd say.


I remember BigMike posting a thread that JB forcasted a FL cane in the near future. Everyone was bashing JB. Guess he was right afterall. :)
0 likes   
Top
CHRISTY

#80 Postby CHRISTY » Sat Oct 15, 2005 6:40 pm

that guy is something else!!!
0 likes   
Top
Locked

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Blown Away, Cpv17, Google Adsense [Bot], HurricaneFan, TomballEd and 59 guests