Take a look at the 200mb wind prog for 00Z this evening (GFS). Very strong ridge developing over the southeast U.S. with 35-45 kt easterly winds across the wave in the eastern Gulf. Not exactly a favorable environment.
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/gom.gif
Checking the satellite loop, I can see what might be a tiny, weak mid-level spin near 24N/83W. Certainly nothing significant. Convection is nearly 100 miles west of there, perhaps because of the increasing easterly winds aloft. Chance of redevelopment is VERY low.
chris remnants thread #8
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Sanibel wrote:I think the swirl you see over water is the mid-level vortex broken free from the weakened overland LLC.
All said, the disturbance still has a circulation.
There's definitely nothing over Cuba. No circulation, no convection. All I see is a wave axis between 85-86W racing westward across the Gulf. Chances of this redeveloping an LLC are slim to none.
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OK, Chris has been in Havana harbor all day taking on fuel. The Castro brothers just turned him loose!
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=23&lon=-82&info=vis&zoom=1&width=2800&height=2000&type=Animation&numframes=8&palette=ir.pal
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=23&lon=-82&info=vis&zoom=1&width=2800&height=2000&type=Animation&numframes=8&palette=ir.pal
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The latest information indicates that Chris is history:
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRIS ARE PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA KEYS. REDEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
Tropical storm development is not expected through Monday.......
Probability of former Chris redeveloping into:
remaining a wave........99%
a depression...........10 %
a tropical storm ..........1 %
a hurricane...........practically zero
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRIS ARE PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA KEYS. REDEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
Tropical storm development is not expected through Monday.......
Probability of former Chris redeveloping into:
remaining a wave........99%
a depression...........10 %
a tropical storm ..........1 %
a hurricane...........practically zero
Last edited by kenl01 on Sun Aug 06, 2006 2:57 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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wxman57
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kenl01 wrote:The latest information indicates that Chris is history:
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRIS ARE PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA KEYS. REDEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
Tropical storm development is not expected through Monday.......
Probability of former Chris redeveloping into:
remaining a wave........100%
a depression...........10 %
a tropical storm ..........1 %
a hurricane...........practically zero
If it has 100% chance of remaining a wave, then it cannot have any chance of becoming anything else. Now it could have 100% chance of being a wave (as it is one now), and have additional probabilities. But not 100% of remaining a wave.
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