chris remnants thread #8

[wxman57]

Take a look at the 200mb wind prog for 00Z this evening (GFS). Very strong ridge developing over the southeast U.S. with 35-45 kt easterly winds across the wave in the eastern Gulf. Not exactly a favorable environment.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/gom.gif

Checking the satellite loop, I can see what might be a tiny, weak mid-level spin near 24N/83W. Certainly nothing significant. Convection is nearly 100 miles west of there, perhaps because of the increasing easterly winds aloft. Chance of redevelopment is VERY low.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

HIS TO RY!!!

[Sanibel]

I think the swirl you see over water is the mid-level vortex broken free from the weakened overland LLC.

All said, the disturbance still has a circulation.

[wxman57]

I think the swirl you see over water is the mid-level vortex broken free from the weakened overland LLC.

All said, the disturbance still has a circulation.

There's definitely nothing over Cuba. No circulation, no convection. All I see is a wave axis between 85-86W racing westward across the Gulf. Chances of this redeveloping an LLC are slim to none.

[Stormavoider]

What do you make of that micro swirl right on the coast near Havana.

[wxman57]

What do you make of that micro swirl right on the coast near Havana.

Looks to be a weakening mid-level vorticity center that's accelerating to the east with increasingly strong easterlies aloft.

[Stormavoider]

OK, Chris has been in Havana harbor all day taking on fuel. The Castro brothers just turned him loose!

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=23&lon=-82&info=vis&zoom=1&width=2800&height=2000&type=Animation&numframes=8&palette=ir.pal

[kenl01]

The latest information indicates that Chris is history:

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRIS ARE PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA KEYS. REDEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

Tropical storm development is not expected through Monday.......


Probability of former Chris redeveloping into:
remaining a wave........99%
a depression...........10 %
a tropical storm ..........1 %
a hurricane...........practically zero

[kenl01]

Now, can we please just forget about "tropical wave Chris ??"

[Stormavoider]

Unexpected things do happen. If not we would only need one link.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

[kenl01]

That's why I still hold a 10 % chance for a tropical depression.......

[wxman57]

The latest information indicates that Chris is history:

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRIS ARE PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA KEYS. REDEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

Tropical storm development is not expected through Monday.......


Probability of former Chris redeveloping into:
remaining a wave........100%
a depression...........10 %
a tropical storm ..........1 %
a hurricane...........practically zero

If it has 100% chance of remaining a wave, then it cannot have any chance of becoming anything else. Now it could have 100% chance of being a wave (as it is one now), and have additional probabilities. But not 100% of remaining a wave.

[Bailey1777]

If it remains a wave who gets the rain?

[Wx_Warrior]

WOW...some of you guys should run for office!

[kenl01]

Anyone care to bet money on Chris's future development prospects ?

[Stormavoider]

If there was redevelopment along this wave would it retain the name Chris?

[jhamps10]

yes it would remain the name chris.

[Stormavoider]

Anyone care to bet money on Chris's future development prospects ?

I'm in for ten bucks on your tropical storm odds. Unless you want to quantify "practically zero".

[Jim Cantore]

I cant find one model thats the least bit intrested in it.

[crazycajuncane]

Well it looks like those people who voted Alive on my Dead or Alive poll may have just lost!