2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

[USTropics]

NMME June Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies for ASO:


May forecast:

[Shell Mound]

May NMME:



June NMME:


Years with MH hits in South Florida:

[Shell Mound]

NMME June Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies for ASO:
https://i.imgur.com/OmXsWZq.png

May forecast:
https://i.imgur.com/uaQkv5c.png

Interestingly, the June forecast suggests a transition toward a blend of EOF1/2 +AMO. Note that the subtropical warm tongue north of the MDR is projected to cool down relative to the MDR, which concomitantly shows signs of warming. Overall, the +AMO looks stronger on the June vs. the May NMME. Also notable is the fact that the ITCZ, while suppressed, is wetter on the most recent run, which also shows a stronger east-based -ENSO signature, with rising air tending to concentrate a bit more over the MC, with sinking air more solidly established over the C/EPAC. This, along with the +AMO trend and a more southerly ITCZ (implying a somewhat weaker African monsoon) vs. 2020, would definitely favour somewhat higher odds of a hyperactive Atlantic season, given the odds of a more active MDR vs. 2020. What’s more disconcerting is that the June NMME has also trended toward a wetter Southeastern U.S., particularly the Florida peninsula, along with a wetter Caribbean vs. the May NMME. This could suggest that both South-Central Florida and the eastern GoM as well as Central America + Yucatán could be at higher-than-normal risk during peak season. The likelihood of elongated, expansive Western Atlantic Ridging (WAR) on the most recent NMME could suggest long-trackers similar to Irma, Georges (1998), or the 1926 Miami/1947 Fort Lauderdale hurricanes, possibly tracking WNW through the Bahamas into Miami/Fort Lauderdale before heading NW toward SE LA (MS River Delta)/MS/AL/western FL Panhandle.

[SFLcane]

NMME June Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies for ASO:
https://i.imgur.com/OmXsWZq.png

May forecast:
https://i.imgur.com/uaQkv5c.png

Interestingly, the June forecast suggests a transition toward a blend of EOF1/2 +AMO. Note that the subtropical warm tongue north of the MDR is projected to cool down relative to the MDR, which concomitantly shows signs of warming. Overall, the +AMO looks stronger on the June vs. the May NMME. Also notable is the fact that the ITCZ, while suppressed, is wetter on the most recent run, which also shows a stronger east-based -ENSO signature, with rising air tending to concentrate a bit more over the MC, with sinking air more solidly established over the C/EPAC. This, along with the +AMO trend and a more southerly ITCZ (implying a somewhat weaker African monsoon) vs. 2020, would definitely favour somewhat higher odds of a hyperactive Atlantic season, given the odds of a more active MDR vs. 2020. What’s more disconcerting is that the June NMME has also trended toward a wetter Southeastern U.S., particularly the Florida peninsula, along with a wetter Caribbean vs. the May NMME. This could suggest that both South-Central Florida and the eastern GoM as well as Central America + Yucatán could be at higher-than-normal risk during peak season. The likelihood of elongated, expansive Western Atlantic Ridging (WAR) on the most recent NMME could suggest long-trackers similar to Irma, Georges (1998), or the 1926 Miami/1947 Fort Lauderdale hurricanes, possibly tracking WNW through the Bahamas into Miami/Fort Lauderdale before heading NW toward SE LA (MS River Delta)/MS/AL/western FL Panhandle.

This is not a strong signal by any means over Florida.

[SFLcane]

NMME June Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies for ASO:
https://i.imgur.com/OmXsWZq.png

May forecast:
https://i.imgur.com/uaQkv5c.png

Both sst look are meh on the model.

[Kingarabian]

Don't forget guys:
 https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1401923723087822858

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Don't forget guys:
https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1401923723087822858/photo/3

Even then though the overall consensus seems to be -ENSO by ASO, albeit cool-neutral and not so much La Niña.

[Kingarabian]

Don't forget guys:
https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1401923723087822858/photo/3

Even then though the overall consensus seems to be -ENSO by ASO, albeit cool-neutral and not so much La Niña.

The GEOS5 model is skewering the entire SST graphic and rainfall forecast graphic though. The La Nina signal it has would mean a pretty dead EPAC season though. An inactive EPAC season would also increase the odds of an active Atlantic.

[Shell Mound]

NMME June Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies for ASO:
https://i.imgur.com/OmXsWZq.png

May forecast:
https://i.imgur.com/uaQkv5c.png

Interestingly, the June forecast suggests a transition toward a blend of EOF1/2 +AMO. Note that the subtropical warm tongue north of the MDR is projected to cool down relative to the MDR, which concomitantly shows signs of warming. Overall, the +AMO looks stronger on the June vs. the May NMME. Also notable is the fact that the ITCZ, while suppressed, is wetter on the most recent run, which also shows a stronger east-based -ENSO signature, with rising air tending to concentrate a bit more over the MC, with sinking air more solidly established over the C/EPAC. This, along with the +AMO trend and a more southerly ITCZ (implying a somewhat weaker African monsoon) vs. 2020, would definitely favour somewhat higher odds of a hyperactive Atlantic season, given the odds of a more active MDR vs. 2020. What’s more disconcerting is that the June NMME has also trended toward a wetter Southeastern U.S., particularly the Florida peninsula, along with a wetter Caribbean vs. the May NMME. This could suggest that both South-Central Florida and the eastern GoM as well as Central America + Yucatán could be at higher-than-normal risk during peak season. The likelihood of elongated, expansive Western Atlantic Ridging (WAR) on the most recent NMME could suggest long-trackers similar to Irma, Georges (1998), or the 1926 Miami/1947 Fort Lauderdale hurricanes, possibly tracking WNW through the Bahamas into Miami/Fort Lauderdale before heading NW toward SE LA (MS River Delta)/MS/AL/western FL Panhandle.

This is not a strong signal by any means over Florida.

It is stronger than that of any other June NMME run since 2014 except last year’s. For comparison, here are all the June forecasts since 2014, including the latest:

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1401982517230686219



 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1401984244847714306



 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1401990644898349058



 https://twitter.com/dbirch214/status/1401970642732339200

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1402257856494190601

[SFLcane]

That is quite the favorable sst look despite what some say to the Atlantic in late August especially into September.

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1402257856494190601

[AutoPenalti]

Kind of hilarious how we have a tale of two halves.

On one half we have a less active season (compared to 2020) because of the warmer SST's in the sub-tropics which means sinking air over the MDR with average rainfall, on the other half we have warmer SST's in the MDR by ASO with the new NMME forecast which calls for a more active season.

[tolakram]

I was going to comment on one of the tweets above saying the MDR looked to be shutdown in June because it was to cool. I mean, it's June. All good discussions, totally valid observation. but also kind of obvious.

[AutoPenalti]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1402247754915762177




SAL has woken up.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1402262463735795713

[NDG]

I don't like the trends by the NMME for us here in FL.

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1402272956315803651

[SFLcane]

2001 is a solid analog match for the precip.

[SFLcane]

I don't like the trends by the NMME for us here in FL.

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1402272956315803651?s=20

Hmmm. Don’t see any trends. Both of the last two runs have had a weak max near FL. Associated with an October TC of some sort.

[jasons2k]

I love the new SST anomaly maps in 5km resolution. Quite an improvement over the 50km maps:

https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/data_cu ... urrent.png