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Ivanhater
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#661 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Oct 16, 2005 5:24 pm

sunday :eek: :eek:

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#662 Postby JTD » Sun Oct 16, 2005 5:25 pm

I notice that this new run of the GFS seems to indicate a considerably weaker cyclone.
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#663 Postby Trader Ron » Sun Oct 16, 2005 5:26 pm

It looks like it's moving WNW from Friday to Saturday.
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#664 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun Oct 16, 2005 5:27 pm

N/m
Last edited by Matt-hurricanewatcher on Sun Oct 16, 2005 5:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#665 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 16, 2005 5:28 pm

jason0509 wrote:I notice that this new run of the GFS seems to indicate a considerably weaker cyclone.


And also hitting the Yucatan Penninsula.
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#666 Postby floridahurricaneguy » Sun Oct 16, 2005 5:28 pm

I am so confused. So basically no trough. And a weak system.

matt
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#667 Postby fasterdisaster » Sun Oct 16, 2005 5:29 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:All I went is it to become a 40 mph tropical storm Wilma. That is all...But I guest I will have to wait 80 years to see it beat.


Uh...no. I disagree. It's going to strengthen and it's going to become Wilma. Have you not noticed the pressure's falling faster than before?! Down to 1000.5 mb.
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#668 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Oct 16, 2005 5:29 pm

floridahurricaneguy wrote:I am so confused. So basically no trough. And a weak system.

matt


the run is still not done
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#669 Postby fci » Sun Oct 16, 2005 5:29 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:All I went is it to become a 40 mph tropical storm Wilma. That is all...But I guest I will have to wait 80 years to see it beat.


40 mph TS Wilma briefly.

and then a new system to be a fish named
A L P H A !!!!!
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#670 Postby Stratosphere747 » Sun Oct 16, 2005 5:29 pm

floridahurricaneguy wrote:I am so confused. So basically no trough. And a weak system.

matt


Looks like it misses the trough.

But remember this is only a model...
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#671 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Oct 16, 2005 5:30 pm

later sunday

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#672 Postby gatorcane » Sun Oct 16, 2005 5:30 pm

Looks like it misses the trough.

But remember this is only a model...


I think it's wrong. It's such a weak system right now, we shouldn't trust the GFS model.

It has to make a NE turn in the GOM somewhere. Climatology says so.
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#673 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Oct 16, 2005 5:31 pm

were 7 days out....everyone take whatever comes out with a grain of salt
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#674 Postby Weatherfreak14 » Sun Oct 16, 2005 5:33 pm

OK confused. :?: Is this torm to be strong as they say it will be?
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#675 Postby Stratosphere747 » Sun Oct 16, 2005 5:34 pm

boca_chris wrote:
Looks like it misses the trough.

But remember this is only a model...


I think it's wrong. It's such a weak system right now, we shouldn't trust the GFS model.

It has to make a NE turn in the GOM somewhere. Climatology says so.


Key phrases....

"looks like it misses the trough" "remember this is only a model"

Scott
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#676 Postby jhamps10 » Sun Oct 16, 2005 5:36 pm

<a href="http://s4m.us" target="_blank"><img alt="Image Hosted by S4M.us Image Hosting" src="http://s4m.us/uploads/bff8728315.gif" /></a>

This is 100% unoffical, and not the opinion of storm2k. This is merely the opinion of the poster and please refer to NHC, NWS, and local media for offical statements, advisories and warnings.

This is open to complete critqueing and I mean it.

I think that this is most defentaly the time of year that a cold front can come down and turn a storm right into Tampa Bay. This season has been big city year, and I'm afraid that we aren't done with the big city hits this year.
Last edited by jhamps10 on Sun Oct 16, 2005 5:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#677 Postby krysof » Sun Oct 16, 2005 5:37 pm

that is 7 days out, does anyone have any idea how much it will change only tomorrow, remember this is the same model that had nothing develop-models do not know much what it's going to do
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#678 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun Oct 16, 2005 5:37 pm

Weatherfreak14 wrote:OK confused. :?: Is this torm to be strong as they say it will be?


Its very hard to say...Almost everything is going for it...
1# Outflow Jets
2# Strong upper level Anticyclone
3# Warm water
4# deep layered TCHP

But it is not strengthing with all that. So it may not get to strong over the next few days.
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#679 Postby Weatherfreak14 » Sun Oct 16, 2005 5:39 pm

Thanks for the clear up. :)
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krysof

#680 Postby krysof » Sun Oct 16, 2005 5:40 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:
Weatherfreak14 wrote:OK confused. :?: Is this torm to be strong as they say it will be?


Its very hard to say...Almost everything is going for it...
1# Outflow Jets
2# Strong upper level Anticyclone
3# Warm water
4# deep layered TCHP

But it is not strengthing with all that. So it may not get to strong over the next few days.


it's not strenghtening right now because of dry air to the northwest of it
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