TD 24,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Locked
Message
Author
User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 11162
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Pensacola

#661 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Oct 16, 2005 5:24 pm

sunday :eek: :eek:

Image
0 likes   
Top
JTD
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1558
Joined: Sun Nov 02, 2003 6:35 pm

#662 Postby JTD » Sun Oct 16, 2005 5:25 pm

I notice that this new run of the GFS seems to indicate a considerably weaker cyclone.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Trader Ron
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 928
Joined: Tue Jul 22, 2003 7:25 pm
Location: Naples,Fl
Contact:
Contact Trader Ron

#663 Postby Trader Ron » Sun Oct 16, 2005 5:26 pm

It looks like it's moving WNW from Friday to Saturday.
0 likes   
Top
Matt-hurricanewatcher

#664 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun Oct 16, 2005 5:27 pm

N/m
Last edited by Matt-hurricanewatcher on Sun Oct 16, 2005 5:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145862
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#665 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 16, 2005 5:28 pm

jason0509 wrote:I notice that this new run of the GFS seems to indicate a considerably weaker cyclone.


And also hitting the Yucatan Penninsula.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
floridahurricaneguy
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 312
Joined: Tue Jul 19, 2005 10:37 pm
Location: Tampa,FL
Contact:
Contact floridahurricaneguy

#666 Postby floridahurricaneguy » Sun Oct 16, 2005 5:28 pm

I am so confused. So basically no trough. And a weak system.

matt
0 likes   
Top
fasterdisaster
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1868
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2005 4:41 pm
Location: Miami, Florida

#667 Postby fasterdisaster » Sun Oct 16, 2005 5:29 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:All I went is it to become a 40 mph tropical storm Wilma. That is all...But I guest I will have to wait 80 years to see it beat.


Uh...no. I disagree. It's going to strengthen and it's going to become Wilma. Have you not noticed the pressure's falling faster than before?! Down to 1000.5 mb.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 11162
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Pensacola

#668 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Oct 16, 2005 5:29 pm

floridahurricaneguy wrote:I am so confused. So basically no trough. And a weak system.

matt


the run is still not done
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
fci
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3324
Joined: Tue Sep 14, 2004 10:29 am
Location: Lake Worth, FL

#669 Postby fci » Sun Oct 16, 2005 5:29 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:All I went is it to become a 40 mph tropical storm Wilma. That is all...But I guest I will have to wait 80 years to see it beat.


40 mph TS Wilma briefly.

and then a new system to be a fish named
A L P H A !!!!!
0 likes   
Top
Stratosphere747
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3772
Joined: Thu Sep 11, 2003 8:34 pm
Location: Surfside Beach/Freeport Tx
Contact:
Contact Stratosphere747

#670 Postby Stratosphere747 » Sun Oct 16, 2005 5:29 pm

floridahurricaneguy wrote:I am so confused. So basically no trough. And a weak system.

matt


Looks like it misses the trough.

But remember this is only a model...
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 11162
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Pensacola

#671 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Oct 16, 2005 5:30 pm

later sunday

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23692
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#672 Postby gatorcane » Sun Oct 16, 2005 5:30 pm

Looks like it misses the trough.

But remember this is only a model...


I think it's wrong. It's such a weak system right now, we shouldn't trust the GFS model.

It has to make a NE turn in the GOM somewhere. Climatology says so.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 11162
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Pensacola

#673 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Oct 16, 2005 5:31 pm

were 7 days out....everyone take whatever comes out with a grain of salt
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Weatherfreak14
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1383
Joined: Sat Sep 24, 2005 3:40 pm
Location: Beaufort, SC
Contact:
Contact Weatherfreak14

#674 Postby Weatherfreak14 » Sun Oct 16, 2005 5:33 pm

OK confused. :?: Is this torm to be strong as they say it will be?
0 likes   
Top
Stratosphere747
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3772
Joined: Thu Sep 11, 2003 8:34 pm
Location: Surfside Beach/Freeport Tx
Contact:
Contact Stratosphere747

#675 Postby Stratosphere747 » Sun Oct 16, 2005 5:34 pm

boca_chris wrote:
Looks like it misses the trough.

But remember this is only a model...


I think it's wrong. It's such a weak system right now, we shouldn't trust the GFS model.

It has to make a NE turn in the GOM somewhere. Climatology says so.


Key phrases....

"looks like it misses the trough" "remember this is only a model"

Scott
0 likes   
Top
jhamps10

#676 Postby jhamps10 » Sun Oct 16, 2005 5:36 pm

<a href="http://s4m.us" target="_blank"><img alt="Image Hosted by S4M.us Image Hosting" src="http://s4m.us/uploads/bff8728315.gif" /></a>

This is 100% unoffical, and not the opinion of storm2k. This is merely the opinion of the poster and please refer to NHC, NWS, and local media for offical statements, advisories and warnings.

This is open to complete critqueing and I mean it.

I think that this is most defentaly the time of year that a cold front can come down and turn a storm right into Tampa Bay. This season has been big city year, and I'm afraid that we aren't done with the big city hits this year.
Last edited by jhamps10 on Sun Oct 16, 2005 5:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
krysof

#677 Postby krysof » Sun Oct 16, 2005 5:37 pm

that is 7 days out, does anyone have any idea how much it will change only tomorrow, remember this is the same model that had nothing develop-models do not know much what it's going to do
0 likes   
Top
Matt-hurricanewatcher

#678 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun Oct 16, 2005 5:37 pm

Weatherfreak14 wrote:OK confused. :?: Is this torm to be strong as they say it will be?


Its very hard to say...Almost everything is going for it...
1# Outflow Jets
2# Strong upper level Anticyclone
3# Warm water
4# deep layered TCHP

But it is not strengthing with all that. So it may not get to strong over the next few days.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Weatherfreak14
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1383
Joined: Sat Sep 24, 2005 3:40 pm
Location: Beaufort, SC
Contact:
Contact Weatherfreak14

#679 Postby Weatherfreak14 » Sun Oct 16, 2005 5:39 pm

Thanks for the clear up. :)
0 likes   
Top
krysof

#680 Postby krysof » Sun Oct 16, 2005 5:40 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:
Weatherfreak14 wrote:OK confused. :?: Is this torm to be strong as they say it will be?


Its very hard to say...Almost everything is going for it...
1# Outflow Jets
2# Strong upper level Anticyclone
3# Warm water
4# deep layered TCHP

But it is not strengthing with all that. So it may not get to strong over the next few days.


it's not strenghtening right now because of dry air to the northwest of it
0 likes   
Top
Locked

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: pepecool20 and 38 guests