LLC Developing just East of Belize?? (Is invest 94L)

[fci]

12z GFS is rather interesting..

Looks like 12z GFS also prompted JB to tweet:
“@BigJoeBastardi: Letting people know in se Fla, Bahamas they should keep an eye on this system as it is now "next week" and id'd or not, will be player”

[SouthDadeFish]

The shear axis does shift, but there won't be a low there in the first place with that kind of wind shear.... at least in my opinion.

it looks lightly not tropical at first. so the surface low would be able to deepen.

It does appear to be a subtropical set-up, but this is suspicious to me since the GFS is feeding off of the 850mb vorticity that came from the Caribbean, which is not a subtropical set up.

[Aric Dunn]

The shear axis does shift, but there won't be a low there in the first place with that kind of wind shear.... at least in my opinion.

it looks lightly not tropical at first. so the surface low would be able to deepen.

It does appear to be a subtropical set-up, but this is suspicious to me since the GFS is feeding off of the 850mb vorticity that came from the Caribbean, which is not a subtropical set up.

Yeah its possible that we just a series of reformations within this very large area as if shifts northerly. Also is timing... the short wave that is swinging through is supposed to pick up this whole mess then leaves it behind. but if it takes longer to pick it up then it will leave it behind sooner and then things change. only time will tell.

[SouthDadeFish]

Aric my suspicion is that we may very well see development in the NW Caribbean if the disturbance can remain in this area of another 36 hours or so. Check out how the 12Z GFS relaxes the 200mb winds in the NW Caribbean in only 36 hours:



200mb winds throughout the NW Caribbean are less than 20 knots. What do you think?

[Aric Dunn]

Aric my suspicion is that we may very well see development in the NW Caribbean if the disturbance can remain in this area of another 36 hours or so. Check out how the 12Z GFS relaxes the 200mb winds in the NW Caribbean in only 36 hours:

[img]http://img12.imageshack.us/img12/2393/gfsatlantic036200wndht.gif[/mg]

200mb winds throughout the NW Caribbean are less than 20 knots. What do you think?

Yeah I just wrote above that if the shortwave does not pick this energy up as quick then the environment would improve quite a bit.

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

The trough continues to linger...and I think it is fair to say we could see some slow development out of this.

But it's going to be a slow process for a few reasons:

1. There is alot of mid-level dry air lurking just to the NW across the Southern GOM as seen on the WV loops.

2. SW Shear looks like it will only allow condtions to be marginally conducive at least for the next several days

3. The low pressure area is tilted, elongated, and lacking convection so it will take time to consolidate.

That said I think it will be given code yellow classification by the NHC within the next 24-48 hours.

[Aric Dunn]

Lets add the UKMET to the new solution that the 12z GFS started with.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ukm ... 12/53.html

[northjaxpro]

Observing the visible satellite imagery, it appears to me that a circulation center may be trying to organize a bit farther north to the southwest of the Isle of Youth.

[Aric Dunn]

Observing the visible satellite imagery, it appears to me that a circulation center may be trying to organize a bit farther north just to the southwest of the Isle of Youth.

[img]http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/vis-l.jpg[img]

well just from a rotational dynamics point of view it would favor the south vort but not till it swings farther east when it meets the strong southerly flow off the Honduras coast and just like yesterday the northern low will lose the dynamics as it rotates SW later. this process keeps happening because convection will not maintain over any of the vorts because the northern half is to highly sheared. but now that the southern half has much lower shear so tonight it may take over if convection build around it.

[northjaxpro]

Observing the visible satellite imagery, it appears to me that a circulation center may be trying to organize a bit farther north just to the southwest of the Isle of Youth.

[img]http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/vis-l.jpg[img]

well just from a rotational dynamics point of view it would favor the south vort but not till it swings farther east when it meets the strong southerly flow off the Honduras coast and just like yesterday the northern low will lose the dynamics as it rotates SW later. this process keeps happening because convection will not maintain over any of the vorts because the northern half is to highly sheared. but now that the southern half has much lower shear so tonight it may take over if convection build around it.

Good analysis Aric. I agree. The shear has dropped off a bit down around the coasts of Belize and Honduras to about 20 knots.

[floridasun78]

this going to be close call we may or not get invest

[canes04]

I say invest tomorrow if current trends continue and possible TD in 48hrs south of the Isle of Youth.
Just need shear to relax and off we go!

[NDG]

I keep saying saying that the main low is the COC SW of the Isle of Youth. If you look at area surface pressures the lowest is found at buoy 42056, with Roatan now reporting NW winds as that small vorticity passed them up.

[cycloneye]

Interesting by NWS Miami:

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
325 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

...HEAVY RAINFALL ON THE WAY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SET UP OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
THURSDAY...AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA
MOVES NORTHEAST AND THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE TO SET UP OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA LEADING
TO HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA. TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER
THE NORTHWEST AREAS TO 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHEAST AREAS WITH
EVEN ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES. IF THESE FORECAST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO BE INDICATED IN LATER MODEL RUNS...A FLOOD
WATCH COULD BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

$$

BAXTER

[WX183]

NWS MIAMI- .EXTENDED FORECAST...

THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THE WEAK LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS LATE THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE
MOVING BACK WEST TOWARDS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLY NEXT
WEEK...DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DRIER AIR TO WORK INTO THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND...BEFORE THE DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES BACK INTO THE
AREA FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. SO WILL CONTINUE THE LOW END SCATTERED
POPS THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE INCREASING THE POPS AGAIN FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

[floridasun78]

Record Breaking Rain Drenches Doral, West Dade MIAMI (CBSMiami) – Much like a monsoon, a rain packed weather system hunkered down over west Miami-Dade Tuesday afternoon, dumping 5 and a half inches of rain on the Doral and shattering the old Miami rainfall record by more than 2 inches. The downpour caused widespread flooding and turned rush hour into a hot mess. http://miami.cbslocal.com/2012/05/22/fl ... iami-dade/ http://miami.cbslocal.com/photo-galleri ... n-go-away/ hope no more rain come

[lebron23]

This Low is just lingering..

[Aric Dunn]

18z gfs rolling in.


120 hours. has a low right off brevard county heading west. not terribly strong. at 200mb however it seems to be in the baroclinic zone similar to alberto. but from the looks of it the environment seems to be changing.

[AdamFirst]

Melbourne AFD doesn't give much hope for this potential system (yet)

FRI-SUN (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...INVERTED SFC TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM CUBA ACROSS S FL AND THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS
INCREASING THE ONSHORE FLOW AND CYCLONIC CONVERGENCE. THIS SHOULD
KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT (20 PERCENT) CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS TO THE SOUTH. THEN SFC TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
BREAKDOWN AND SHIFT WESTWARD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA THIS WEEKEND
AS DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS
SHOULD INCREASE THE ONSHORE FLOW SAT AND SUN WITH AN OVERALL
INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE FA. HAVE DRAWN MOSTLY 30 POPS BOTH
DAYS THOUGH SUNDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AS THE REMNANT INVERTED TROUGH SHIFTS WEST OF THE AREA. IT WILL BE
AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY WITH PERIODS OF OVERCAST POSSIBLE AND
BREEZY ESP AT THE COAST.

[NDG]

This is where I see the COC of a broad low pressure, near 19.7N & 83.5W
It has been moving ENE since this morning, with an elongated trough of low pressure extending SW towards northern Honduras and NE towards Cuba.
What are they waiting for to name this an Invest, convection has been on the increase and shear has relaxed a little bit.