Low pressure developing over the western Caribbean Sea (Is Invest 97L)

[jfk08c]

Latest GFS run, looks like it misses a clean escape through the trough as the ridge builds back over it. Would not be good for rainfall totals

[3090]

12z Canadian looks rough for Pensacola

Canadian? Hurricane model? Is that really a reliable hurricane model?

[Ivanhater]

12z Canadian looks rough for Pensacola

Canadian? Hurricane model? Is that really a reliable hurricane model?

Verification shows it is and is in line with most of the models

[Kazmit]

12z Canadian looks rough for Pensacola

Canadian? Hurricane model? Is that really a reliable hurricane model?

It's a global model, and yes it's reliable.

[jfk08c]

12z Canadian looks rough for Pensacola

Canadian? Hurricane model? Is that really a reliable hurricane model?

Weather is weather. No matter where you live, the science is the same

[StPeteMike]

12z Canadian looks rough for Pensacola

Luckily it keeps it as a weak hurricane, but can’t say the GFS is best at intensity. The track is more concerning, that’s about two full days of water being pushed up the west coast.

[StPeteMike]

12z Canadian looks rough for Pensacola

Luckily it keeps it as a weak hurricane, but can’t say the GFS is best at intensity. The track is more concerning, that’s about two full days of water being pushed up the west coast.

Sorry, read GFS lol

[DunedinDave]

Seems like the trend is west with this thing. ICON does show at the very end a trough sweeping in so this does seem to have a typical Opal track to it. Goes over the Yucatán and then swings back around towards the panhandle. Better news for Fla west coast on latest models but still too early to count anyone out.

[ConvergenceZone]

12z Canadian looks rough for Pensacola

Luckily it keeps it as a weak hurricane, but can’t say the GFS is best at intensity. The track is more concerning, that’s about two full days of water being pushed up the west coast.

Yea, strength forecasts this far out probably have about a 95% chance of being inaccurate since there's no system yet.

[Nimbus]

So looks like the Canadian and the GFS are forecasting a closed low near Honduras by this Sunday the 22nd.
Should be easy to verify, so why don't all the models have a closed low in that area?

[LAF92]

So looks like the Canadian and the GFS are forecasting a closed low near Honduras by this Sunday the 22nd.
Should be easy to verify, so why don't all the models have a closed low in that area?

Because the other models are a day or two slower on forecasting a closed low. It’s all going to be about timing

[Steve]

I don't see it jkf. Maybe Big Bend? There will be a strong trough cutting across the US but whether that picks this up or not - assuming it develops - remains to be seen. If so, I'd bet you that the Panhandle-Big Bend would be more likely. I realize the Big Bend is kind of technically the W Coast of FL, but I think of that as at least south of Cedar Key.

ICON rolling in and at 174 hours. Looks south of LA Coast and interacting with a EPAC system and also low pressure centered in Illinois. I guess this would get picked up. There are only 6 more hours to the run, so it won't show a landfall. But it looks like it would be somewhere from the mouth of the River over to NWFL.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 812&fh=174

This one's really tough to predict especially with nothing formed yet. Way too many variables at play with trough timing, location of disturbance formation. I agree models have been trending west lately but I've seen them flip back the other way all too often. Hopefully by this weekend we will actually have a disturbance that is trackable to take out some of the guessing

Yeah for sure. But so far this season in the Gulf, where there has been development, ICON/EC have been the best. As per often, I think GFS/CMC move this up and out earlier so we will have to start watching how the models see 500mb this weekend. For now, CMC has moved from Big Bend toward MS/AL from 00z to 12z. Maybe it will slide back a little tonight.

[StPeteMike]

GFS keeps it interesting by stalling the storm out off the Atlantic Coast, east of Jacksonville by a few hundred miles.

Off topic, seems like the models are forecasting a nice cold blast for the Northeast in about 2 weeks. Nice!

[toad strangler]

FWIW (not much at this point), 12z GEFS going to clobber FL. With amount of members, not necessarily strength.

[SFLcane]

GEFS what in the heck are you doing? Stuck on the florida solution

[Frank P]

12z Canadian looks rough for Pensacola

Luckily it keeps it as a weak hurricane, but can’t say the GFS is best at intensity. The track is more concerning, that’s about two full days of water being pushed up the west coast.

12z Canadian shifted west to Mobile AL, 974mb is a Cat 2

[StPeteMike]

12z Canadian looks rough for Pensacola

Luckily it keeps it as a weak hurricane, but can’t say the GFS is best at intensity. The track is more concerning, that’s about two full days of water being pushed up the west coast.

12z Canadian shifted west to Mobile AL, 974mb is a Cat 2
https://i.ibb.co/hH0R8GL/cmc.png

I meant GFS, not sure how Canadian looked like GFS to me.

[DunedinDave]

I always look at the Hurricane Phoenix track as the most likely one to play out for a major storm to hit the TB area. If they’re gonna get it, it’s gonna come from that angle. Seems like some of the GFS ensembles want to copy that track here. Hope that doesn’t happen but it could form in that area with some of the ingredients for that right turn in place.

[chaser1]

My best guess is that a vigorous but unorganized Low will race NNE across the East-Central GOM and across the Fl Apalachicola/Big Bend region.

This season's basin & global lack of instability coupled with upper level shear has me leaning towards Persistance regarding the possibility of cyclogenesis in the mid to long range. 2024 has taught me that Climatology and forecast ensemble models are simply less funtional toward predicting tropical cyclone development then they ordinarily would be in most years. Until I see an existing tropical disturbance with concentrated convection will I then consider a generally global model consensus as a reasonable outcome. Short of that I believe that any projection minus an extremely strong signal beyond 5 days, might as well be practically random.

[Steve]

My best guess is that a vigorous but unorganized Low will race NNE across the East-Central GOM and across the Fl Apalachicola/Big Bend region.

This season's basin & global lack of instability coupled with upper level shear has me leaning towards Persistance regarding the possibility of cyclogenesis in the mid to long range. 2024 has taught me that Climatology and forecast ensemble models are simply less funtional toward predicting tropical cyclone development then they ordinarily would be in most years. Until I see an existing tropical disturbance with concentrated convection will I then consider a generally global model consensus as a reasonable outcome. Short of that I believe that any projection minus an extremely strong signal beyond 5 days, might as well be practically random.

Keep in mind that this will likely form (if it does) from a gyre if not broader area of low pressure and not a single entity or intersection of a low pressure area and tropical wave or two low pressure centers like Francine. So if it races off NNE or staggers a bit off the Yucatan, it's going to come down to the upper pattern. Slower development and faster trough = no race NNE or a piece remaining back. Faster development and slower trough means probably farther west landfall (e.g. CMC). Slower development and slower trough = farther west. Faster consolidation and faster trough = NE Gulf.