96L Invest,E of Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #1

[storms in NC]

The 12z UKMET doesn't show anything.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... hour=144hr

It is because it anit going to happen

[canegrl04]

Well right now it looks like its still hanging on.Hasn't gone poof yet. I would give it one more day.If convection is still firing up,it still has achance

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn-l.jpg

If this does get a LLC I'm guessing that it will form in that big area of convection off South America.

[Opal storm]

If it does develop it's probably going to do so in the central/western Carib maybe off the Yucatan.That's days away so I wouldn't look for development until then.

[cycloneye]

I can't see a disernable turning now maybe a very weak turning in the clouds around 8n different from last night it that was more evident.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I'm starting to think this doe's not have much of a chance. But theres still a chance...SAL is a big problem for this system...

Lattest discussion...
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 3&start=60

[mvtrucking]

I can't see a disernable turning now maybe a very weak turning in the clouds around 8n different from last night it that was more evident.

I may be seeing things, but I believe I can still pick up some turning at or about 42w 11 N? (Just under the convection)

[bvigal]

http://img387.imageshack.us/img387/9804/atsa12z6sr.gif

*edited by staff to make image clickable due to its size

Did anyone notice that neither the 8am nor 2pm TWD mentioned a surface low, yet TAFB charted one on the 12z surface map? That seems very unusual to me.
"TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN JUL 09 2006

...
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W S OF 15N MOVING W 15 KT. LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 37W-45W."

[HurricaneHunter914]

I'm starting to think this doe's not have much of a chance. But theres still a chance...SAL is a big problem for this system...

Lattest discussion...
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 3&start=60

I think you are being a little rude to the GFDL by calling it "worthless hurricane model for systems of this strength".

[cycloneye]

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

NRL has the latest position of 96L at 18:00z at 8.6n-41.7w with 1010 mbs.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Maybe because it is...Its no better then the ship model heck its worth then the ship model...History proves the gfdl on systems of this strength it hypes the development. So yes its not inconsiderate to call it as it is.

[bvigal]

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

NRL has the latest position of 96L at 18:00z at 8.6n-41.7w with 1010 mbs.

So Luis, do you think the NHC is in agreement that there is a surface low pressure along this wave? And has it dropped from 1012 to 1010 so far today?

(Note: lest anyone misunderstand, not talking about a CLOSED low.)

[cycloneye]

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

NRL has the latest position of 96L at 18:00z at 8.6n-41.7w with 1010 mbs.

So Luis, do you think the NHC is in agreement that there is a surface low pressure along this wave? And has it dropped from 1012 to 1010 so far today?

(Note: lest anyone misunderstand, not talking about a CLOSED low.)

Well,at least aparently they are following something as they are updating the positions,but yes nothing closed.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Is this mb drop a sign that this Invest is getting a little better organized?

[bvigal]

Is this mb drop a sign that this Invest is getting a little better organized?

Ordinarily I would say it's meaningful. But usually they mention a low in the TWD, like this

A 1021 MB AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 34N49W OR ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA

[cycloneye]

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/pub/atcf/tcweb/i ... 006.invest

Above is the text for invest 96L.They haved been following it since it was at 33w on saturday at 6:00z as you can see.

[cheezyWXguy]

lets see what things look like on the 8pm one

[bvigal]

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/pub/atcf/tcweb/invest_al962006.invest

Above is the text for invest 96L.They haved been following it since it was at 33w as you can see.

Thanks Luis! That sort of answers my question. They considered a 1013mb low to be along the wave at 6z, but none at 12z or 18z. Or, IS that what that means??

[cycloneye]

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/pub/atcf/tcweb/invest_al962006.invest

Above is the text for invest 96L.They haved been following it since it was at 33w as you can see.

Thanks Luis! That sort of answers my question. They considered a 1013mb low to be along the wave at 6z, but none at 12z or 18z. Or, IS that what that means??

However,there haved not been Tropical Model runs at 12:00z nor at 18:00z.My guess is that they are pinpointing a steady position to then resume the runs.

[HurricaneGirl]