Tropical Wave over the SE Bahamas (Is INVEST 91L)

[Evil Jeremy]

I mean in as little as 24hrs the Euro is very close to closing off.

Put negative developmental factors aside, I can see why. There is noticeable churn winding up right now.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[Steve]

Stronger than 12z yesterday and notably WSW of the 12Z position. Click “72” and then toggle previous and current run.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0112&fh=72

Ridge is similar but the trough across New Mexico is farther east on this run at 500mb Height & Anomaly. Again click 72 and the previous/next
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 112&fh=120

[ronyan]

I get 16 mph average between the euro 48hr and 72hr positions calculating based on approximate coordinates.

[Aric Dunn]

Would be hard to imagine in 36hours there is an open wave with hurricane force winds.. I the euro suggesting some rapid spin up here...

[Siker]

Where are people getting that it’s stronger than the 00z? Tropical Tidbits plots make it look weaker except in the first 48 hours.

[NDG]

Hour 72 faster and stronger than the 00Z run

Is weaker than last night's 0z run but stronger than yesterday's 12z run.

[Steve]

96 hours how over Lafourche Parish SW of New Orleans whereas 12z yesterday was across Lake Pontchartrain.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0112&fh=96

[NDG]

Would be hard to imagine in 36hours there is an open wave with hurricane force winds.. I the euro suggesting some rapid spin up here...

Keep in mind that's h925 and kph not mph.

[Siker]

Would be hard to imagine in 36hours there is an open wave with hurricane force winds.. I the euro suggesting some rapid spin up here...

That’s kph, not mph.

[Aric Dunn]

And 51 hours.



70 mph

[Steve]

Where are people getting that it’s stronger than the 00z? Tropical Tidbits plots make it look weaker except in the first 48 hours.

Toggle the runs as noted in 72 hour post. It’s low res but you can see more isobars (dark blacker circle) indicating a stronger system. I don’t have high res access so I can just go by what TT maps show. Also check out the wind flag plots. Maybe that’s what they call barbs? You have more bars on the 12z in several places near the system than at 00z.

[Aric Dunn]

Would be hard to imagine in 36hours there is an open wave with hurricane force winds.. I the euro suggesting some rapid spin up here...

That’s kph, not mph.

hehe so it is.. lol my bad

so 40mph

[tolakram]

Weaker and a little further south, strengthening on approach.

[Siker]

Where are people getting that it’s stronger than the 00z? Tropical Tidbits plots make it look weaker except in the first 48 hours.

Toggle the runs as noted in 72 hour post. It’s low res but you can see more isobars (dark blacker circle) indicating a stronger system. I don’t have high res access so I can just go by what TY maps show.

But if you’re using the toggle tool (the arrows) that’s yesterday’s 12z run, not the 00z. Landfall on this run is 993mb vs. 985mb on the 00z.

[Clearcloudz]

Hour 72 faster and stronger than the 00Z run

Is weaker than last night's 0z run but stronger than yesterday's 12z run.

sorry got a little ahead myself there. Your right.

[Steve]

Where are people getting that it’s stronger than the 00z? Tropical Tidbits plots make it look weaker except in the first 48 hours.

Toggle the runs as noted in 72 hour post. It’s low res but you can see more isobars (dark blacker circle) indicating a stronger system. I don’t have high res access so I can just go by what TY maps show.

But if you’re using the toggle tool (the arrows) that’s yesterday’s 12z run, not the 00z. Landfall on this run is 993mb vs. 985mb on the 00z.

You’re right. I flubbed that up last year too. I forgot the next/prev goes back to the prior run for the same timeframe. My bad. Stronger than 12z yesterday, luckily weaker than last night’s 00z.

[Cpv17]

This run is probably coming in a tad weaker than the 0z because it’s moving faster so it has less time over water.

[Dylan]

If the European is correct, we should be able to watch this develop on the Key West radar on Sunday night into Monday morning.

[srainhoutx]

Starting to see a trend here as the models try and resolve the strength of the Mid Latitude Ridge. Seeing multiple runs from various model solutions except for the GFS showing a turn back W and WSW. That should raise an eyebrow.

[Cpv17]

The ridge that’s building into the N. Plains is what’s sending this back west to sw over Texas and then gets caught in weak steering currents.