miamicanes177 wrote:I don't want this to get lost on the earlier page between the bickering back and forth. No doubt this could be a player in the GOM. We've only had 3 hurricanes so far so it's almost like we're due anytime now for another one. Me an wxman57 must have ate the same thing because my gut is telling me to watch out for development too.wxman57 wrote:Interesting discussions, AFM/Derek. I agree, AFM, that the upper low could be the spark that gets some kind of low going, possibly near Florida on one side or the other. But the question I have is how the global models would handle the upper-level features (i.e., the low) given that they don't really forecast tropical systems well. 5-day forecasts are often pretty bad as far as upper wind predictions, particularly if the model "thinks" the low its developing isn't tropical in nature. So maybe the shear you're seeing isn't really going to be there by Friday?
This system really does have me concerned. With a ridge building to the north and a slow west movement beneath it, it would seem like quite a favorable environment for TC development/intensification. The "fly in the ointment" is that upper low. What if the models are wrong with its strength and/or location (or even its existence) by Friday? My gut is telling me that this system could be a real problem. Or maybe it's all the Corn Chex I just ate.
Miamicanes, count me in eating that same thing too, since my gut is really telling me that we really need to watch out for a cane,
also what happened to never trusting the NAM? Not complaining that we are getting so detailed into tonights run as the more detailed we get, the more that we learn about sytems and the models in general, but I thought that it was the worst model of them all.
It is kind of funny actually. I mean it wasn't even like I singled AFM out anywhere in my post. All I basically said was that we should never let our gaurd down because Humberto showed us that anything can happen in the tropics. There was no attacking, there was no "calling out" of a particular met, there was really no harm in my post. Sure, I admit that I missed AFM's post on the other page saying that shear could lighten once in the central GOM and that he was talking only about the short term, but does that give him the right to respond in a rude manner toward me? I don't really think so (IMO). 
And that was my point. I wasn't picking in the storm...and I agree with WXMAN's post...I actually think it has a good chance in the central/western GOM "IF" something gets going per the models. The atmosphere looks good there. It looks terrible off of Florida...which is what we were talking about.
