2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[LarryWx]

6z GFS is also dead through september 25th. Some energy gets into the gulf, but gets sheared and stretched out along a front, and a mess in the east caribbean at the tail end of the run. But, at least on the models, getting pretty close to a named-storm free September. Ensembles have some activity in the MDR, but nothing enthusiastic.

I dont trust modeling out that far. The prediction earlier in the year was for more homegrown systems so we will see if that verifies.

I agree with you Caneman. The season is not over by any stretch. It’s best to keep an eye on the tropics especially when the MJO comes back around.

Not only that, the month is far from over. There will be storms almost for sure later this month. However, the MJO has already been favorable. It’s been in moderate phase 2 for several days now.

[DunedinDave]

Definitely got to keep an eye on things, but wow, I am floored by how quiet it is at peak season and how quiet it is forecast to be. What is the reason for all this? The so-called experts were saying we would have another 2020 just a few months ago.

[LarryWx]

Definitely got to keep an eye on things, but wow, I am floored by how quiet it is at peak season and how quiet it is forecast to be. What is the reason for all this? The so-called experts were saying we would have another 2020 just a few months ago.

I don’t recall any credible experts who were calling for anything close to another 2020 this year. Would you please provide links to these 2020ish forecasts?

Meanwhile, the models through 6Z and the Euro Weeklies for the next 2 weeks are still very quiet overall for this time of year. Boring/quiet is much better than the devastation of a year ago. So, it isn’t something to be mad about from my perspective.

[cycloneye]

LarryWx, here are all the forecasts from the experts.

Here is the Experts forecasts thread where anyone can see at the long list at the first post of thread all the set of numbers they forecasted.

[LarryWx]

LarryWx, here are all the forecasts from the experts.

Here is the Experts forecasts thread where anyone can see at the long list at the first post of thread all the set of numbers they forecasted.

Thank you, Luis! This confirms that there are none in that S2K list of experts that were anywhere close to 2020 levels.

[TomballEd]

There will be a named storm in September. Both GFS and Euro model families show an MDR storm (as does Google). The GFS Caribbean/Gulf storm has little support from other models. Most ensemble members show the MDR system recurving before the Caribbean but it is too early to say that for sure.

But no September named storms prediction will not verify.

[TomballEd]

LarryWx, here are all the forecasts from the experts.

Here is the Experts forecasts thread where anyone can see at the long list at the first post of thread all the set of numbers they forecasted.

Thank you, Luis! This confirms that there are none in that S2K list of experts that were anywhere close to 2020 levels.

The consensus seems slightly above normal storms. More normal levels of activity the end of September and October will probably not get the season above average in named storms or ACE but being near average is still quite doable, especially if we get more than one major in the Caribbean/Gulf.

[ConvergenceZone]

LarryWx, here are all the forecasts from the experts.

Here is the Experts forecasts thread where anyone can see at the long list at the first post of thread all the set of numbers they forecasted.

Thank you, Luis! This confirms that there are none in that S2K list of experts that were anywhere close to 2020 levels.

I did hear though through the NHC that it suppose to have been a year with above normal activity. Not much above normal, but still above normal. It's too early to see how badly that forecast will bust, but I'm keeping a close eye on it. But we probably should stay on topic with the models run. I know it's super easy to veer off topic as I do it many times myself without even realizing I'm doing it.

[LarryWx]

12Z UKMET

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 150 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+150 : 13.9N 32.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 15.09.2025 156 15.0N 33.7W 1012 27
1200UTC 15.09.2025 168 15.1N 37.9W 1010 33

 Followup: Although the 0Z UKMET dropped this in the middle of the MDR, today’s 12Z brings it right back in a similar position with similar timing also moving mainly WNW. This run gets to a low end TS just after 156 hours:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 13.2N 33.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 15.09.2025 132 13.2N 33.4W 1010 27
1200UTC 15.09.2025 144 14.5N 36.3W 1009 29
0000UTC 16.09.2025 156 15.2N 38.9W 1008 33
1200UTC 16.09.2025 168 16.4N 42.0W 1006 38

[IsabelaWeather]

Definitely got to keep an eye on things, but wow, I am floored by how quiet it is at peak season and how quiet it is forecast to be. What is the reason for all this? The so-called experts were saying we would have another 2020 just a few months ago.

This is definitely a wild thing to say. No one credible was forecasting 30 named storms lol.

Even if they did, they dont have a crystal ball, its only a best guess on the way the atmosphere looks, no guarantees.

[chaser1]

There will be a named storm in September. Both GFS and Euro model families show an MDR storm (as does Google). The GFS Caribbean/Gulf storm has little support from other models. Most ensemble members show the MDR system recurving before the Caribbean but it is too early to say that for sure.

But no September named storms prediction will not verify.

I'd bet $1,000 that you're right but I wouldn't bet my house on it

[DunedinDave]

Definitely got to keep an eye on things, but wow, I am floored by how quiet it is at peak season and how quiet it is forecast to be. What is the reason for all this? The so-called experts were saying we would have another 2020 just a few months ago.

I don’t recall any credible experts who were calling for anything close to another 2020 this year. Would you please provide links to these 2020ish forecasts?

Meanwhile, the models through 6Z and the Euro Weeklies for the next 2 weeks are still very quiet overall for this time of year. Boring/quiet is much better than the devastation of a year ago. So, it isn’t something to be mad about from my perspective.

Not talking about experts here. Just out there in the media. Our local guy on channel 13 here said back in June that we would likely get through the alphabet this year. There was just a lot of chatter this was going to be a busy season. But it looks like it could be a dud. Not a bad thing. But obviously it keeps things quiet around here.

[Stratton23]

Still think its too early to say this seasons a dud for sure, even in some of the really quiet seasons we have seen some infamous or memorable storms form especially from CAG setups ( which the GGS continues to be persistent about) which will likely be the basins best shot at developing, new CPC tropical hazardous outlook is out and it seems they are taking the GEFS solutions and MJO over the EPS/ GEPS because they got 2 new zones to watch in the gulf/ caribbean