2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[Category5Kaiju]

That Euro forecast gave me the chills

[skyline385]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1533446369838604288

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1533461053857705985

[aspen]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1533446369838604288

Quite a bit of skepticism on wx Twitter today, which I mostly agree with. It will be very difficult to get a season with 1995/2004/2017-level ACE unless the MDR warms up like crazy and STAYS warm. Every time the MDR warms, the trades return and it cools off again. The only SSTA configuration that has stuck around is that subtropical warm pool, which isn’t conductive for an active season. They mentioned that the UKMET and NMME will update in the next week, so that’ll be interesting to see if they also go overboard or yield estimates that conflict with the Euro.

After the last two seasons during this multi-year La Niña streak, I have a hard time believing that this year will finally be a higher-quality year like 2004/2010/2017. 2020 had a ton of late-season hurricanes and majors but a very lackluster MDR despite near-record SSTAs; 2021 did generate two 30+ ACE MDR majors, but had an even greater percentage of shorties than 2020 and a nearly dead ON. Factors that seemed to be favorable before ASO (2020’s WAM/ASW on overdrive and 2021’s Atlantic Niño) turned out to have limiting side-effects, like all the AEWs in 2020 being so large and coming off so far north that most struggled in the MDR, or 2021’s Atlantic Niño pushing the ITCZ so far south in ON that every AEW ran into South America. Perhaps a factor in the 2022 season will be a double-edged sword when it comes to activity too. But there’s also a moderate possibility I’ll be eating my words by the time September rolls around.

[Category5Kaiju]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1533446369838604288

Quite a bit of skepticism on wx Twitter today, which I mostly agree with. It will be very difficult to get a season with 1995/2004/2017-level ACE unless the MDR warms up like crazy and STAYS warm. Every time the MDR warms, the trades return and it cools off again. The only SSTA configuration that has stuck around is that subtropical warm pool, which isn’t conductive for an active season. They mentioned that the UKMET and NMME will update in the next week, so that’ll be interesting to see if they also go overboard or yield estimates that conflict with the Euro.

After the last two seasons during this multi-year La Niña streak, I have a hard time believing that this year will finally be a higher-quality year like 2004/2010/2017. 2020 had a ton of late-season hurricanes and majors but a very lackluster MDR despite near-record SSTAs; 2021 did generate two 30+ ACE MDR majors, but had an even greater percentage of shorties than 2020 and a nearly dead ON. Factors that seemed to be favorable before ASO (2020’s WAM/ASW on overdrive and 2021’s Atlantic Niño) turned out to have limiting side-effects, like all the AEWs in 2020 being so large and coming off so far north that most struggled in the MDR, or 2021’s Atlantic Niño pushing the ITCZ so far south in ON that every AEW ran into South America. Perhaps a factor in the 2022 season will be a double-edged sword when it comes to activity too. But there’s also a moderate possibility I’ll be eating my words by the time September rolls around.

The million dollar question is what that mystery factor would be. Although, what we can say for sure are that no two hurricane seasons are carbon copies of each other, and one of the most reliable predictors for overall activity (that being the -ENSO state) suggests that ENSO related shear should not be an issue during the season (especially considering it's already firmly entrenched and in a third year state).

[aspen]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1533446369838604288

Quite a bit of skepticism on wx Twitter today, which I mostly agree with. It will be very difficult to get a season with 1995/2004/2017-level ACE unless the MDR warms up like crazy and STAYS warm. Every time the MDR warms, the trades return and it cools off again. The only SSTA configuration that has stuck around is that subtropical warm pool, which isn’t conductive for an active season. They mentioned that the UKMET and NMME will update in the next week, so that’ll be interesting to see if they also go overboard or yield estimates that conflict with the Euro.

After the last two seasons during this multi-year La Niña streak, I have a hard time believing that this year will finally be a higher-quality year like 2004/2010/2017. 2020 had a ton of late-season hurricanes and majors but a very lackluster MDR despite near-record SSTAs; 2021 did generate two 30+ ACE MDR majors, but had an even greater percentage of shorties than 2020 and a nearly dead ON. Factors that seemed to be favorable before ASO (2020’s WAM/ASW on overdrive and 2021’s Atlantic Niño) turned out to have limiting side-effects, like all the AEWs in 2020 being so large and coming off so far north that most struggled in the MDR, or 2021’s Atlantic Niño pushing the ITCZ so far south in ON that every AEW ran into South America. Perhaps a factor in the 2022 season will be a double-edged sword when it comes to activity too. But there’s also a moderate possibility I’ll be eating my words by the time September rolls around.

The million dollar question is what that mystery factor would be. Although, what we can say for sure are that no two hurricane seasons are carbon copies of each other, and one of the most reliable predictors for overall activity (that being the -ENSO state) suggests that ENSO related shear should not be an issue during the season (especially considering it's already firmly entrenched and in a third year state).

Maybe yet another unexpected peak season TUTT, either typhoon-pumped or not. I think a TUTT was also partly responsible for 2021’s pathetic late season.

Alternatively, since third year Ninas are so rare, maybe there’s some poorly understood atmospheric effect that’ll impact this year’s hurricane season, either limiting or enhancing it. Remember, none of the previous third year Nina seasons of the satellite era were hyperactive. There might be a shared reason as to why that’ll pop up this year. Or it’s a consequence of a small sample size.

[skyline385]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1533446369838604288

Quite a bit of skepticism on wx Twitter today, which I mostly agree with. It will be very difficult to get a season with 1995/2004/2017-level ACE unless the MDR warms up like crazy and STAYS warm. Every time the MDR warms, the trades return and it cools off again. The only SSTA configuration that has stuck around is that subtropical warm pool, which isn’t conductive for an active season. They mentioned that the UKMET and NMME will update in the next week, so that’ll be interesting to see if they also go overboard or yield estimates that conflict with the Euro.

After the last two seasons during this multi-year La Niña streak, I have a hard time believing that this year will finally be a higher-quality year like 2004/2010/2017. 2020 had a ton of late-season hurricanes and majors but a very lackluster MDR despite near-record SSTAs; 2021 did generate two 30+ ACE MDR majors, but had an even greater percentage of shorties than 2020 and a nearly dead ON. Factors that seemed to be favorable before ASO (2020’s WAM/ASW on overdrive and 2021’s Atlantic Niño) turned out to have limiting side-effects, like all the AEWs in 2020 being so large and coming off so far north that most struggled in the MDR, or 2021’s Atlantic Niño pushing the ITCZ so far south in ON that every AEW ran into South America. Perhaps a factor in the 2022 season will be a double-edged sword when it comes to activity too. But there’s also a moderate possibility I’ll be eating my words by the time September rolls around.

The million dollar question is what that mystery factor would be. Although, what we can say for sure are that no two hurricane seasons are carbon copies of each other, and one of the most reliable predictors for overall activity (that being the -ENSO state) suggests that ENSO related shear should not be an issue during the season (especially considering it's already firmly entrenched and in a third year state).

ENSO state and its effect is not static though, if it begins the transition towards ENSO neutral or simply starts warming a bit, it could slow down activity and considering that we are in a third year Nino, there is a very real chance of it even if the ensemble members are split on the transition.

[cycloneye]

He is somewhat bearish.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1533492498169053185

[skyline385]

He is somewhat bearish.

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1533492498169053185

That August plot would mean rip SFL shield

[AlphaToOmega]

Quite a bit of skepticism on wx Twitter today, which I mostly agree with. It will be very difficult to get a season with 1995/2004/2017-level ACE unless the MDR warms up like crazy and STAYS warm. Every time the MDR warms, the trades return and it cools off again. The only SSTA configuration that has stuck around is that subtropical warm pool, which isn’t conductive for an active season. They mentioned that the UKMET and NMME will update in the next week, so that’ll be interesting to see if they also go overboard or yield estimates that conflict with the Euro.

After the last two seasons during this multi-year La Niña streak, I have a hard time believing that this year will finally be a higher-quality year like 2004/2010/2017. 2020 had a ton of late-season hurricanes and majors but a very lackluster MDR despite near-record SSTAs; 2021 did generate two 30+ ACE MDR majors, but had an even greater percentage of shorties than 2020 and a nearly dead ON. Factors that seemed to be favorable before ASO (2020’s WAM/ASW on overdrive and 2021’s Atlantic Niño) turned out to have limiting side-effects, like all the AEWs in 2020 being so large and coming off so far north that most struggled in the MDR, or 2021’s Atlantic Niño pushing the ITCZ so far south in ON that every AEW ran into South America. Perhaps a factor in the 2022 season will be a double-edged sword when it comes to activity too. But there’s also a moderate possibility I’ll be eating my words by the time September rolls around.

The million dollar question is what that mystery factor would be. Although, what we can say for sure are that no two hurricane seasons are carbon copies of each other, and one of the most reliable predictors for overall activity (that being the -ENSO state) suggests that ENSO related shear should not be an issue during the season (especially considering it's already firmly entrenched and in a third year state).

Maybe yet another unexpected peak season TUTT, either typhoon-pumped or not. I think a TUTT was also partly responsible for 2021’s pathetic late season.

Alternatively, since third year Ninas are so rare, maybe there’s some poorly understood atmospheric effect that’ll impact this year’s hurricane season, either limiting or enhancing it. Remember, none of the previous third year Nina seasons of the satellite era were hyperactive. There might be a shared reason as to why that’ll pop up this year. Or it’s a consequence of a small sample size.

I have a pretty small checklist of variables to describe how a season is going to behave; they are AMO (positive or negative), PDO (positive or negative), AMM (positive or negative), ENSO (positive classic, positive Modoki, negative classic, or negative Modoki), and Atlantic Niño (strong, weak, or not present). In my opinion, it does well explaining why seasons often underperform their base states. The underperformances 2021 and 2007 can be explained by the strong Atlantic Niño. The underperformances of 2011 can be explained by the Modoki La Niña.

[Hurricane Mike]

Getting major 2017 vibes from some of these mid-season precip indicators.

[Cpv17]

Getting major 2017 vibes from some of these mid-season precip indicators.

Do you think the western Gulf would be active then? I’m not really seeing anything that suggests that? Looks more focused towards the eastern Gulf..

[hurricane2025]

Getting major 2017 vibes from some of these mid-season precip indicators.

Do you think the western Gulf would be active then? I’m not really seeing anything that suggests that? Looks more focused towards the eastern Gulf..

2008 is a analog year

[AlphaToOmega]

Getting major 2017 vibes from some of these mid-season precip indicators.

Do you think the western Gulf would be active then? I’m not really seeing anything that suggests that? Looks more focused towards the eastern Gulf..

My analog years are 2001, 2005, 2010, and 2020, all of which had activity in the western Gulf/Caribbean

[Cpv17]

Getting major 2017 vibes from some of these mid-season precip indicators.

Do you think the western Gulf would be active then? I’m not really seeing anything that suggests that? Looks more focused towards the eastern Gulf..

My analog years are 2001, 2005, 2010, and 2020, all of which had activity in the western Gulf/Caribbean

Gotcha. I’m just going by what I’ve seen from some of these seasonal models which have been indicating a really busy eastern Gulf.

[Steve]

Do you think the western Gulf would be active then? I’m not really seeing anything that suggests that? Looks more focused towards the eastern Gulf..

My analog years are 2001, 2005, 2010, and 2020, all of which had activity in the western Gulf/Caribbean

Gotcha. I’m just going by what I’ve seen from some of these seasonal models which have been indicating a really busy eastern Gulf.

With Alpha’s, CSU, Weather Bell, etc etc bringing out many of the big dog analog seasons, there’s probably going to be plenty of pain across the Gulf.

[cycloneye]

Wow.

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1533561124867964928

[skyline385]

Wow.

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1533561124867964928

I noticed this too but then I saw Alex and Andy's tweet how the SEAS5 had bias adjustment last year as it was underperforming constantly, kinda not a fair comparison at that point

[toad strangler]

So much SST handwringing across the campus

The AEW's will be there and they will move W. If SST's are off a smidge for the most part they will move a bit further W. And so on.

[Category5Kaiju]

Wow.

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1533561124867964928

If these models are really onto something, I think it’s within reason to say that this season is not playing games