
That Euro forecast gave me the chills
Moderator: S2k Moderators
skyline385 wrote:https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1533446369838604288
aspen wrote:skyline385 wrote:https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1533446369838604288
Quite a bit of skepticism on wx Twitter today, which I mostly agree with. It will be very difficult to get a season with 1995/2004/2017-level ACE unless the MDR warms up like crazy and STAYS warm. Every time the MDR warms, the trades return and it cools off again. The only SSTA configuration that has stuck around is that subtropical warm pool, which isn’t conductive for an active season. They mentioned that the UKMET and NMME will update in the next week, so that’ll be interesting to see if they also go overboard or yield estimates that conflict with the Euro.
After the last two seasons during this multi-year La Niña streak, I have a hard time believing that this year will finally be a higher-quality year like 2004/2010/2017. 2020 had a ton of late-season hurricanes and majors but a very lackluster MDR despite near-record SSTAs; 2021 did generate two 30+ ACE MDR majors, but had an even greater percentage of shorties than 2020 and a nearly dead ON. Factors that seemed to be favorable before ASO (2020’s WAM/ASW on overdrive and 2021’s Atlantic Niño) turned out to have limiting side-effects, like all the AEWs in 2020 being so large and coming off so far north that most struggled in the MDR, or 2021’s Atlantic Niño pushing the ITCZ so far south in ON that every AEW ran into South America. Perhaps a factor in the 2022 season will be a double-edged sword when it comes to activity too. But there’s also a moderate possibility I’ll be eating my words by the time September rolls around.
Category5Kaiju wrote:aspen wrote:skyline385 wrote:https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1533446369838604288
Quite a bit of skepticism on wx Twitter today, which I mostly agree with. It will be very difficult to get a season with 1995/2004/2017-level ACE unless the MDR warms up like crazy and STAYS warm. Every time the MDR warms, the trades return and it cools off again. The only SSTA configuration that has stuck around is that subtropical warm pool, which isn’t conductive for an active season. They mentioned that the UKMET and NMME will update in the next week, so that’ll be interesting to see if they also go overboard or yield estimates that conflict with the Euro.
After the last two seasons during this multi-year La Niña streak, I have a hard time believing that this year will finally be a higher-quality year like 2004/2010/2017. 2020 had a ton of late-season hurricanes and majors but a very lackluster MDR despite near-record SSTAs; 2021 did generate two 30+ ACE MDR majors, but had an even greater percentage of shorties than 2020 and a nearly dead ON. Factors that seemed to be favorable before ASO (2020’s WAM/ASW on overdrive and 2021’s Atlantic Niño) turned out to have limiting side-effects, like all the AEWs in 2020 being so large and coming off so far north that most struggled in the MDR, or 2021’s Atlantic Niño pushing the ITCZ so far south in ON that every AEW ran into South America. Perhaps a factor in the 2022 season will be a double-edged sword when it comes to activity too. But there’s also a moderate possibility I’ll be eating my words by the time September rolls around.
The million dollar question is what that mystery factor would be. Although, what we can say for sure are that no two hurricane seasons are carbon copies of each other, and one of the most reliable predictors for overall activity (that being the -ENSO state) suggests that ENSO related shear should not be an issue during the season (especially considering it's already firmly entrenched and in a third year state).
Category5Kaiju wrote:aspen wrote:skyline385 wrote:https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1533446369838604288
Quite a bit of skepticism on wx Twitter today, which I mostly agree with. It will be very difficult to get a season with 1995/2004/2017-level ACE unless the MDR warms up like crazy and STAYS warm. Every time the MDR warms, the trades return and it cools off again. The only SSTA configuration that has stuck around is that subtropical warm pool, which isn’t conductive for an active season. They mentioned that the UKMET and NMME will update in the next week, so that’ll be interesting to see if they also go overboard or yield estimates that conflict with the Euro.
After the last two seasons during this multi-year La Niña streak, I have a hard time believing that this year will finally be a higher-quality year like 2004/2010/2017. 2020 had a ton of late-season hurricanes and majors but a very lackluster MDR despite near-record SSTAs; 2021 did generate two 30+ ACE MDR majors, but had an even greater percentage of shorties than 2020 and a nearly dead ON. Factors that seemed to be favorable before ASO (2020’s WAM/ASW on overdrive and 2021’s Atlantic Niño) turned out to have limiting side-effects, like all the AEWs in 2020 being so large and coming off so far north that most struggled in the MDR, or 2021’s Atlantic Niño pushing the ITCZ so far south in ON that every AEW ran into South America. Perhaps a factor in the 2022 season will be a double-edged sword when it comes to activity too. But there’s also a moderate possibility I’ll be eating my words by the time September rolls around.
The million dollar question is what that mystery factor would be. Although, what we can say for sure are that no two hurricane seasons are carbon copies of each other, and one of the most reliable predictors for overall activity (that being the -ENSO state) suggests that ENSO related shear should not be an issue during the season (especially considering it's already firmly entrenched and in a third year state).
aspen wrote:Category5Kaiju wrote:aspen wrote:Quite a bit of skepticism on wx Twitter today, which I mostly agree with. It will be very difficult to get a season with 1995/2004/2017-level ACE unless the MDR warms up like crazy and STAYS warm. Every time the MDR warms, the trades return and it cools off again. The only SSTA configuration that has stuck around is that subtropical warm pool, which isn’t conductive for an active season. They mentioned that the UKMET and NMME will update in the next week, so that’ll be interesting to see if they also go overboard or yield estimates that conflict with the Euro.
After the last two seasons during this multi-year La Niña streak, I have a hard time believing that this year will finally be a higher-quality year like 2004/2010/2017. 2020 had a ton of late-season hurricanes and majors but a very lackluster MDR despite near-record SSTAs; 2021 did generate two 30+ ACE MDR majors, but had an even greater percentage of shorties than 2020 and a nearly dead ON. Factors that seemed to be favorable before ASO (2020’s WAM/ASW on overdrive and 2021’s Atlantic Niño) turned out to have limiting side-effects, like all the AEWs in 2020 being so large and coming off so far north that most struggled in the MDR, or 2021’s Atlantic Niño pushing the ITCZ so far south in ON that every AEW ran into South America. Perhaps a factor in the 2022 season will be a double-edged sword when it comes to activity too. But there’s also a moderate possibility I’ll be eating my words by the time September rolls around.
The million dollar question is what that mystery factor would be. Although, what we can say for sure are that no two hurricane seasons are carbon copies of each other, and one of the most reliable predictors for overall activity (that being the -ENSO state) suggests that ENSO related shear should not be an issue during the season (especially considering it's already firmly entrenched and in a third year state).
Maybe yet another unexpected peak season TUTT, either typhoon-pumped or not. I think a TUTT was also partly responsible for 2021’s pathetic late season.
Alternatively, since third year Ninas are so rare, maybe there’s some poorly understood atmospheric effect that’ll impact this year’s hurricane season, either limiting or enhancing it. Remember, none of the previous third year Nina seasons of the satellite era were hyperactive. There might be a shared reason as to why that’ll pop up this year. Or it’s a consequence of a small sample size.
Hurricane Mike wrote:Getting major 2017 vibes from some of these mid-season precip indicators.
Cpv17 wrote:Hurricane Mike wrote:Getting major 2017 vibes from some of these mid-season precip indicators.
Do you think the western Gulf would be active then? I’m not really seeing anything that suggests that? Looks more focused towards the eastern Gulf..
Cpv17 wrote:Hurricane Mike wrote:Getting major 2017 vibes from some of these mid-season precip indicators.
Do you think the western Gulf would be active then? I’m not really seeing anything that suggests that? Looks more focused towards the eastern Gulf..
AlphaToOmega wrote:Cpv17 wrote:Hurricane Mike wrote:Getting major 2017 vibes from some of these mid-season precip indicators.
Do you think the western Gulf would be active then? I’m not really seeing anything that suggests that? Looks more focused towards the eastern Gulf..
My analog years are 2001, 2005, 2010, and 2020, all of which had activity in the western Gulf/Caribbean
Cpv17 wrote:AlphaToOmega wrote:Cpv17 wrote:
Do you think the western Gulf would be active then? I’m not really seeing anything that suggests that? Looks more focused towards the eastern Gulf..
My analog years are 2001, 2005, 2010, and 2020, all of which had activity in the western Gulf/Caribbean
Gotcha. I’m just going by what I’ve seen from some of these seasonal models which have been indicating a really busy eastern Gulf.
Users browsing this forum: duilaslol, HurricaneAndre2008, Tx_Summer and 38 guests