2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[TomballEd]

Even the GFS ensembles have more Pacific systems. Much too early to get concerned but Euro just N of Caribbean threat in 2 weeks seems more likely.

May have two MDR systems in next two weeks.

[DunedinDave]

6z GFS with another "Perrycane". Big Bend cannot catch a break if this verifies. (no other operational model has it, so it's probably phantom, even a week out, it's already shifted back in time from Monday runs that were showing the gulf which are a telltale sign of phantom CAG.)

https://i.postimg.cc/fyykFrmZ/gfs-mslp-wind-seus-fh174-336.gif

As I said in another post, it’s almost the exact same track on almost the exact same day that Helene hit last year.

That said, I’m not buying it yet. GFS has Brownsville at 0z and Perry at 6z. It’s all over the place. No other models really showing much at least in the next week. I think if something forms it’s more likely to head into Mexico or the Yucatán and cross into the Pacific.

[Teban54]

0z ECMWF and 6z GFS both have a second MDR hurricane behind the 0/30 AOI, from a wave that emerges from Africa around Sep 20. Gets much closer to the islands, although obviously too early to be a serious concern especially for CONUS.

[Stratton23]

CMC caved to the GFS with a CAG system lifting due north out of the SW caribbean so wont be surprised when a lemon is issued for the NW caribbean in a couple of days, both models are also showing 3-4 areas to watch behind the CAG system, to no surprise modes are starting to see the effects of that MJO passage in a week

[LAF92]

CMC caved to the GFS with a CAG system lifting due north out of the SW caribbean so wont be surprised when a lemon is issued for the NW caribbean in a couple of days, both models are also showing 3-4 areas to watch behind the CAG system, to no surprise modes are starting to see the effects of that MJO passage in a week

The 12zGFS looks like it keeps that particular CAG festering in the BOC for a week then slings it the central Gulf towards the end of the run.