New! Pictures From the AMS 28th Conference on Hurricanes

[wxman57]

Besides Derek and myself, who here is going to be attending the AMS hurricane conference in Orlando this coming week (Apr. 28-May 2)? I'll have a poster session there on Thursday afternoon. Looks like a lot of interesting presentations. Only one of me and 4-5 presentations going on at once each day. Even evening sessions. Should be a busy week.

Meeting web site:
http://ametsoc.org/MEET/fainst/200828Hurricane.html

Program Listing:
http://ams.confex.com/ams/28Hurricanes/ ... ed_471.htm

[Duddy]

I would LOVE to go! Too bad I live in Texas.

[Derek Ortt]

http://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/138161.pdf

This is the manuscript describing what I will be presenting. About the differences in structure of Katrina and Rita

[Chacor]

Some very interesting presentations lined up. Mark Lander's about the JMA/JTWC best-track interests me.

[Evil Jeremy]

I would love to go, but unfortunately I don't have a drivers license yet lol.

[Ptarmigan]

http://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/138161.pdf

This is the manuscript describing what I will be presenting. About the differences in structure of Katrina and Rita

Interesting article. Looks like a hurricane in a more moist environment is more likely to be larger than in a drier environment. Katrina had a lots of outer rainbands compared to Rita.

[wxman57]

Some pictures from the conference during the session on Hurricanes and Climatology. Bill Read sat with us at the poolside cookout this evening wearing sandals, shorts, and a t-shirt that said "Meteorologist - off duty". I didn't ask him if I could post it so I'm not going to put it here, just the cropped image below. He still has trouble remembering where his "office" is. Can't get used to the idea that it's the NHC now and not the Houston/Galveston NWS.

A cropped shot of Bill Read's t-shirt:


I think Bill Gray gave the most entertaining presentation I've seen. He started out by saying:

"Today I want to talk about salt!" He talked about the thermohaline circulation.

Here's a shot of Dr. Gray, Dr. Phil Klotzbach, and Dr. Chris Landsea listing to one of the presentations in yesterday's session on hurricanes and climatology:


Some slides from Dr. Gray's talk:


His poke at those who improperly identify trends where no trend exists. His graphic proving that by 2050 there will be zero landfalling major hurricanes due to increasing C02. Note that as C02 has risen since 1924, the average annual number of landfalling major hurricanes has decreased from 0.93/yr to 0.52/yr. His point is that you can skew the data to show any kind of trend you want.


And his conclusion:

[Cyclone1]

Klotzbach looks like he's falling asleep.

[wxman57]

Klotzbach looks like he's falling asleep.

I think he was reading the meeting schedule to decide what presentation to go to next. There are 4 presentation rooms. Presentations run 15 minutes each. People move from room to room to catch certain talks.

[Cyclone1]

Lol, yeah I could see he was reading something. Great pics, thanks for posting!

[HURAKAN]

Thanks for the pictures and the information. Very nice!!!

[Derek Ortt]

one problem with the multi-decadal cycle theory

Research using sediment records by Professor Jeffery Donnely from Woods Hole shows that there are no multi-decadal cycles beyond the one observed in this century. There are, however, cycles on the millenial timescale and we are in an active phase according to his research

[JonathanBelles]

Love the Tshirt!!

[Blown Away]

one problem with the multi-decadal cycle theory

Research using sediment records by Professor Jeffery Donnely from Woods Hole shows that there are no multi-decadal cycles beyond the one observed in this century. There are, however, cycles on the millenial timescale and we are in an active phase according to his research

Millennial is 1000 years, correct. According to his research when did this active phase begin and predicted to end on the millennial scale?

[Derek Ortt]

the active phase began about 300 years ago according to Donelly

[Blown Away]

the active phase began about 300 years ago according to Donelly

Does he have a website or link to his research? Since he concludes we are generally in the beginning of an active phase what does he say about the future? Sounds interesting.

[vbhoutex]

Looks like it would have been a very interesting conference to attend.

2 years ago, I met a young man in Austin when I was there on business and a severe t-storm rolled through. We were both watching the storm from a "safe" vantage point just outside the building. I don't remember his name, but he told me in the course of our conversation that he was Klotzbach's best friend. He knew a lot about Gray's research etc. The reason I am writing about this?? Because Philip Klotzbach looks just like the dude I met. I am now wondering if it was him, especially since I had told him I was with Storm2k and a weather enthusiast, and he was trying to conceal his identity for some reason.

[wxman57]

Looks like it would have been a very interesting conference to attend.

2 years ago, I met a young man in Austin when I was there on business and a severe t-storm rolled through. We were both watching the storm from a "safe" vantage point just outside the building. I don't remember his name, but he told me in the course of our conversation that he was Klotzbach's best friend. He knew a lot about Gray's research etc. The reason I am writing about this?? Because Philip Klotzbach looks just like the dude I met. I am now wondering if it was him, especially since I had told him I was with Storm2k and a weather enthusiast, and he was trying to conceal his identity for some reason.

Maybe it was Phil. He looks very young, like a college freshman, but he's probably 23 or so. Very young for a PhD. He would have been just starting work on his PhD 2 years ago.

[Derek Ortt]

Some of Prof Donnelly's publications


Donnelly, J.P., 2005, Evidence of Past Intense Tropical Cyclones from Backbarrier Salt Pond Sediments: A Case Study from Isla de Culebrita, Puerto Rico, USA: Journal of Coastal Research, SI42, p. 201-210.

Donnelly, J.P., and Webb III, T., 2004, Backbarrier sedimentary records of intense hurricane landfalls in the northeastern United States. In: Murnane, R. and Liu, K. (eds.), Hurricanes and Typhoons: Past Present and Potential, New York: Columbia Press, pp. 58-96.

Donnelly, J.P., J. Butler, S. Roll, Micah Wengren, and T. Webb III, 2004, A backbarrier overwash record of intense storms from Brigantine, New Jersey: Marine Geology, v. 210, p. 107-121.

[OuterBanker]

Let's see. We are now in the 300th year of a 1000 yr active cycle. That means I will be almost 757 at the end of the cycle. I think I have a better chance in seeing the end of Dr. Gray's cycle