North / Northeastern GOM

[Hurricaneman]

There seems to be a surface and ULL at 25N 50W. I do think this may be a player in 4 to 5 days if it can get away from the ULL the othe problem is no real model support but with systems like these you never know

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[AJC3]

Interestingly, the 12Z NAM wants to dive-bomb this feature as a weak (mid-low 1010's SLP) surface low WSW into the northern Bahamas through 84 hours. The 00Z ECM/UKM and the 06Z GFS show similar solutions. While SSTs would support TC-genesis, and there is precedence for mid-Atlantic TC's to make a SW run at Florida (2002's T.C. Kyle comes to mind), the local atmosphere in that area has rather low precipitable water values - and it's currently beneath an upper level low, as you mentioned. May see some sort of weak inverted trough or glorified screaming eagle coming into the Bahamas early next week. Interesting little feature to watch. Nice catch!

[northjaxpro]

Given that the models are progging that the Bermuda ridge is supposed to build back in the next several days, this feature is definitely something to keep an eye on in the coming days.

[AJC3]

For those who haven't heard of the reference, it was first coined by my good friend for many years, the late Hank Brandli, a military satellite meteorologist who lived in the Melbourne area.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Screaming ... %28wave%29

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat_training ... ing_Eagle/

[northjaxpro]

Well, there has been a considerable increase in the convection this morning, compared to 24 hours ago. This is an interesting feature to keep an eye on next few days.

[Alyono]

Canadian still makes this into a Gulf cane

[cycloneye]

The vorticity is slowly increasing.

[northjaxpro]

The feature is forecast to be moving west or even west-southwest over the next several days as the Bermuda ridge builds back in again.

NAM and the Canadian model do develop this system. We will wait to see if GFS and EURO jump on board as time progresses.

[Blown Away]

Is there an example of a ULL that developed into a landfalling hurricane?

[HURAKAN]

Is there an example of a ULL that developed into a landfalling hurricane?

I think Hurricane Erika, 2003, is a good example. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2003erika.shtml

[gatorcane]

The feature is forecast to be moving west or even west-southwest over the next several days as the Bermuda ridge builds back in again.

NAM and the Canadian model do develop this system. We will wait to see if GFS and EURO jump on board as time progresses.

NAM is not good for predicting tropical development.

Will get interested if GFS or EURO show development.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, I know the NAM model's history of not handling tropical dynamics well. However, the Canadian does try to develop the system. Thus, of course the more reliable EURO and GFS models are what we are awaiting to see if they jump aboard which I pointed out earlier.

We have seen these ULL migrate across the Atlantic in the early going so far this season. The ULL which eventually caused Chantal's demise also originated from the Central Atlantic and migrated west-southwest to the Florida Straits.

This is at least something to follow. Every once in awhile these ULL can translate down to the surface over a period of time given the upper environment being conducive for that transition to occur.

[Hurricaneman]

Is there an example of a ULL that developed into a landfalling hurricane?

I think Hurricane Erika, 2003, is a good example. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2003erika.shtml

another example is Bob in 1991, started out as an ULL ESE of Bermuda and moved into the Bahamas and developed into one of the more intense hurricanes to hit the NEUS

[Aric Dunn]

convection on the increase.. maybe as it gets closer the the other system it maybe get a moisture boost

[Hurricaneman]

Heres a list of ULLs that became tropical systems in the last 25 years

2011 Jose 45mph
2010 Otto 85mph
2010 Shary 75mph
2009 Claudette 60mph
2007 Humberto 90mph
2007 TD10 35mph
2005 Tammy 50mph
2004 Nicole 50mph
2004 Otto 50mph
2003 Ana 60mph
2003 TD7 35mph
2003 Erika 75mph
2002 Edouard 65mph
2002 Gustav 100mph
2001 Karen 80mph
2001 Lorenzo 40mph
2000 Florence 80mph
2000 Nadine 60mph
1999 Arlene 60mph
1998 Hermine 45mph
1997 Bill 75mph
1995 Dean 45mph
1994 TD2 35mph
1994 Beryl 60mph
1993 Harvey 75mph
1992 Charley 110mph
1991 Bob 115mph
1991 Claudette 130mph
1990 Edouard 45mph

this has to be watched but if this became a tropical system it would probably be like TD7 in 2003 based on the models and how they are handling this

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[ROCK]

I dont remember Humberto being a ULL? I remember it being a MLC until it got its act together right at the coast and RI'ed....

[Hurricane Alexis]

This is the one that moves into Florida on Monday?

[Hurricaneman]

This is the one that moves into Florida on Monday?

Yes as a wave in most of the models

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[SouthFloridawx]

Do you guys think there is a chance for this thing?

[ozonepete]

I would have to say no even though it's really starting to pop convection now and has (or is developing) a nice MLC. But if you look at the visible or rgb loops you can see the northwesterly shear is strong from southern Florida into the Bahamas, and though that shear has been receding a little to the south up til now, it is forecast to remain where it is now and be really strong. So I would expect overnight and tomorrow this low will start getting stretched from NW to SE and then shredded apart. None of the models develops it anymore.