North / Northeastern GOM

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Hurricaneman
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North / Northeastern GOM

#1 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Jul 11, 2013 5:08 am

There seems to be a surface and ULL at 25N 50W. I do think this may be a player in 4 to 5 days if it can get away from the ULL the othe problem is no real model support but with systems like these you never know

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Re: Central Atlantic Low

#2 Postby AJC3 » Thu Jul 11, 2013 10:10 am

Interestingly, the 12Z NAM wants to dive-bomb this feature as a weak (mid-low 1010's SLP) surface low WSW into the northern Bahamas through 84 hours. The 00Z ECM/UKM and the 06Z GFS show similar solutions. While SSTs would support TC-genesis, and there is precedence for mid-Atlantic TC's to make a SW run at Florida (2002's T.C. Kyle comes to mind), the local atmosphere in that area has rather low precipitable water values - and it's currently beneath an upper level low, as you mentioned. May see some sort of weak inverted trough or glorified screaming eagle coming into the Bahamas early next week. Interesting little feature to watch. Nice catch!
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Re: Central Atlantic Low

#3 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Jul 11, 2013 10:32 am

Given that the models are progging that the Bermuda ridge is supposed to build back in the next several days, this feature is definitely something to keep an eye on in the coming days.
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#4 Postby AJC3 » Thu Jul 11, 2013 10:49 am

For those who haven't heard of the reference, it was first coined by my good friend for many years, the late Hank Brandli, a military satellite meteorologist who lived in the Melbourne area.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Screaming ... %28wave%29

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat_training ... ing_Eagle/
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#5 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Jul 12, 2013 6:39 am

Well, there has been a considerable increase in the convection this morning, compared to 24 hours ago. This is an interesting feature to keep an eye on next few days.
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#6 Postby Alyono » Fri Jul 12, 2013 7:01 am

Canadian still makes this into a Gulf cane
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Re: Central Atlantic Low

#7 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 12, 2013 8:32 am

The vorticity is slowly increasing.

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#8 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Jul 12, 2013 8:38 am

The feature is forecast to be moving west or even west-southwest over the next several days as the Bermuda ridge builds back in again.

NAM and the Canadian model do develop this system. We will wait to see if GFS and EURO jump on board as time progresses.
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Re: Central Atlantic Low

#9 Postby Blown Away » Fri Jul 12, 2013 10:06 am

Is there an example of a ULL that developed into a landfalling hurricane?
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Re: Central Atlantic Low

#10 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Jul 12, 2013 10:08 am

Blown Away wrote:Is there an example of a ULL that developed into a landfalling hurricane?


I think Hurricane Erika, 2003, is a good example. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2003erika.shtml
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Re:

#11 Postby gatorcane » Fri Jul 12, 2013 11:03 am

northjaxpro wrote:The feature is forecast to be moving west or even west-southwest over the next several days as the Bermuda ridge builds back in again.

NAM and the Canadian model do develop this system. We will wait to see if GFS and EURO jump on board as time progresses.


NAM is not good for predicting tropical development.

Will get interested if GFS or EURO show development.
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#12 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Jul 12, 2013 11:10 am

Yeah, I know the NAM model's history of not handling tropical dynamics well. However, the Canadian does try to develop the system. Thus, of course the more reliable EURO and GFS models are what we are awaiting to see if they jump aboard which I pointed out earlier.

We have seen these ULL migrate across the Atlantic in the early going so far this season. The ULL which eventually caused Chantal's demise also originated from the Central Atlantic and migrated west-southwest to the Florida Straits.

This is at least something to follow. Every once in awhile these ULL can translate down to the surface over a period of time given the upper environment being conducive for that transition to occur.
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Re: Central Atlantic Low

#13 Postby Hurricaneman » Fri Jul 12, 2013 12:34 pm

HURAKAN wrote:
Blown Away wrote:Is there an example of a ULL that developed into a landfalling hurricane?


I think Hurricane Erika, 2003, is a good example. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2003erika.shtml


another example is Bob in 1991, started out as an ULL ESE of Bermuda and moved into the Bahamas and developed into one of the more intense hurricanes to hit the NEUS
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#14 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Jul 12, 2013 3:23 pm

convection on the increase.. maybe as it gets closer the the other system it maybe get a moisture boost
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Re: Central Atlantic Low

#15 Postby Hurricaneman » Fri Jul 12, 2013 4:10 pm

Heres a list of ULLs that became tropical systems in the last 25 years

2011 Jose 45mph
2010 Otto 85mph
2010 Shary 75mph
2009 Claudette 60mph
2007 Humberto 90mph
2007 TD10 35mph
2005 Tammy 50mph
2004 Nicole 50mph
2004 Otto 50mph
2003 Ana 60mph
2003 TD7 35mph
2003 Erika 75mph
2002 Edouard 65mph
2002 Gustav 100mph
2001 Karen 80mph
2001 Lorenzo 40mph
2000 Florence 80mph
2000 Nadine 60mph
1999 Arlene 60mph
1998 Hermine 45mph
1997 Bill 75mph
1995 Dean 45mph
1994 TD2 35mph
1994 Beryl 60mph
1993 Harvey 75mph
1992 Charley 110mph
1991 Bob 115mph
1991 Claudette 130mph
1990 Edouard 45mph

this has to be watched but if this became a tropical system it would probably be like TD7 in 2003 based on the models and how they are handling this

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Re: Central Atlantic Low

#16 Postby ROCK » Fri Jul 12, 2013 5:21 pm

I dont remember Humberto being a ULL? I remember it being a MLC until it got its act together right at the coast and RI'ed....
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Re: Central Atlantic Low

#17 Postby Hurricane Alexis » Fri Jul 12, 2013 5:28 pm

This is the one that moves into Florida on Monday?
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Re: Central Atlantic Low

#18 Postby Hurricaneman » Fri Jul 12, 2013 5:53 pm

Hurricane Alexis wrote:This is the one that moves into Florida on Monday?


Yes as a wave in most of the models

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Re: Central Atlantic Low

#19 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sun Jul 14, 2013 3:50 pm

Do you guys think there is a chance for this thing?

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Re: Central Atlantic Low

#20 Postby ozonepete » Sun Jul 14, 2013 5:02 pm

I would have to say no even though it's really starting to pop convection now and has (or is developing) a nice MLC. But if you look at the visible or rgb loops you can see the northwesterly shear is strong from southern Florida into the Bahamas, and though that shear has been receding a little to the south up til now, it is forecast to remain where it is now and be really strong. So I would expect overnight and tomorrow this low will start getting stretched from NW to SE and then shredded apart. None of the models develops it anymore.
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