Finally got around to making this 'oddball' thread for 2021 like I did for last year, using the Chinese Zodiac to maybe apply the 12 and 60 year cycles that exist within that astrology and see if it can shed some light on what 2021 might bring with the meat of hurricane season still ahead. This thread is both for the fun of it and also a continuing experiment to see if Chinese Astrology can actually help paint a 'big picture' idea of what a particular season could bring, if indeed there are 12 year and 60 year cycles that extend into the world of tropical cyclones.
Last year, 2020, was the Year of the Rat and it was insane! The Year of the Metal Rat, as that one was called, brought a cruel and devastating wave of tropical cyclones. This has been a hallmark of Metal Rat years past, and 2020 even brought a severe late-season burst in October & November.
2021 is the Year of the Ox, will it bring something different? This is my 2nd attempt on here to 'predict' or 'shed some light' on a hurricane season based on this stuff, so here we go!
The Chinese Zodiac
It is a bit more complex than most people think, because this ancient astrology system also assigns 5 different elements (Metal, Water, Wood, Fire, Earth) to the yearly animal signs, making for a total of 60 different year combinations! This way 2020 was a Metal Rat year, and 2021 is the Metal Ox. 2022, next year, will be the Water Tiger year.
Here’s some history on the origin of the zodiac, for those interested, in the link below:
https://depts.washington.edu/triolive/quest/2007/TTQ07030/history.html
This ancient wisdom handed down by the Chinese is thousands of years old, and perhaps, just perhaps, it may also extend into tropical meteorology.
In a bit more scientific view, perhaps there are recurring significant weather patterns, happening to some degree, every 12 years / 60 years around the world for some reason. If we take a step back, we could look and say that Chinese Astrology indicates that there are possibly 12-year and 60-year natural cycles at play, and the animal signs only make it easier to point them out. Alright, lets get into the 2021 stuff:
The year 2021 falls within the 12-year cycle the Chinese call the Year of the Ox, and the 60-year cycle which is called the Metal Ox.
Using the 12 year cycle, we'd look at 2009, 1997, 1985, 1973, 1961, 1949, 1937, 1925, 1913, 1901 and so on to get an idea of what 2021 could be like. Most of the seasons in this cycle were very quiet or average ones that had few significant landfalling hurricanes, a stark contrast to the Year of the Rat preceding most of those. This would seem like good news for many folks who went through last year's devastating hurricane season.
There is one caveat however...
2021 might end up being far more eventful because of the 60 year cycle, because it turns out that the Metal Ox year has brought the busiest Ox-year hurricane seasons. Using the 60 Year cycle, we get to 1961, which was a very high ACE year and featured Hurricane Carla, which was perhaps one of the worst hurricanes to strike during an Ox year. 1901 brought the most active hurricane season without a major hurricane on the other hand, with 13 known storms and 6 hurricanes, so more quantity than quality. There is only a little bit data about 1841, 1781 and 1721 however. The well-documented seasons of 1961 and 1901 could perhaps be more accurate comparisons to 2021 because of the sexagenary cycle vs the 12-year one.
I did some digging around and found the data needed to make a guess at the 2021 season. This is the first of two main parameters that I looked at this time...
The first parameter is the seasonal numbers in Total Tropical Storms/Hurricanes/Majors format (T/H/M) for all 'Ox Years' since 1851.
PARAMETER 1 -
Past Ox Year Cycles and their seasonal numbers (T/H/M), dating back to 1851:
1851 - 1950 era:
1853 - 8/4/2
1865 - 7/3/2
1877 - 8/3/1
1889 - 9/6/1
1901 - 13/6/0
1913 - 6/4/0
1925 - 4/1/0
1937 - 11/4/1
1949 - 16/7/2
Average of these years = 9.11/4.22/1.00, when rounded = 9/4/1. Not too shabby with total storm count for a time when up to 6 storms may have been missed each year, according to the NHC's Christopher Landsea (reference, "Counting Atlantic Tropical Cyclones back to 1900"). There is a fairly average number of hurricanes for the time, and a somewhat low major hurricane average however. This indicates these kind of years tended to be more quantity than quality. Lets see if the more recent Ox years were any different:
1950 - present era:
1961 - 12/8/5
1973 - 8/4/1
1985 - 11/7/3
1997 - 8/3/1
2009 - 9/3/2
Average of these years = 9.6/5/2.4, when rounded = 10/5/2. This is very close if not just a little below the 9.6/5.9/2.3 average from 1950 to 2000. You couldn't tell the difference between the inactive era and active 1995-present era with these Ox year hurricane seasons, in fact the strongest one was 1961 followed by 1985. This indicates that Ox years tend to be average to slow hurricane seasons with few exceptions. In fact, from an ACE point of view, virtually all Ox years, with the major exception of 1961, were average or below-normal.
Now this is the Metal Ox year average, taking only 1901 and 1961 into account because of a lack of data in the years 1841, 1781. The years 1901 and 1961 are within the 1851-present database too.
1901 - 13/6/0
1961 - 12/8/5
Average = 12.5/7/2.5 = when rounded = 13/7/3. This is substantially higher than the 1950 - 2000 average of 9.6/5.9/2.3 particularly in the total number of storms. 2021 could have a high number of named storms vs a more average hurricane/major hurricane count.
It's also worth noting that both of these seasons had fairly active Julys, as did a handful of other Ox years including 1997. 2021 already seems to be mimicking this with tropical storm Danny and Hurricane Elsa so far this month.
Times are changing however, and it's possible to catch more named storms with current methods than ever before. The newest 30-year average from 1991-2020 is: 14.4/7.2/3.2. Higher than the previous average to say the least.
In fact, in order to attempt to guess at how many 2021 will bring, it would be a good idea to also look at the last decade;
the 2010-2020 seasons which went like this:
2010: 19/12/5
2011: 19/7/4
2012: 19/10/2
2013: 14/2/0
2014: 8/6/2
2015: 11/4/2
2016: 15/7/4
2017: 17/10/6
2018: 15/8/2
2019: 18/6/3
2020: 30/14/7
2010 - 2020 Average: 16.8/7.8/3.4 = 17/8/3. This to me is perhaps the average we should compare to this season and past Ox Year hurricane seasons.
Outlook: 2021 - 16/8/4
ACE Range = 105 - 135
Numbers like these say 2021 might be in the league of these 5 recent Atlantic Hurricane Seasons ... 2000, 2001, 2016, 2018, 2019.
Calculations that led to this estimate:
1) 1950 – 2000 avg Compared with Ox years 1961 – 2009, Multiplied by 1991 – 2020 Avg = Likely 2021 outcome based on old & new ratios:
Ox Yr Avg = 9.6/5/2.4; 1950-2000 Avg = 9.6/5.9/2.3 = yields Ox Year percentages of 1950-2000 normal = 100%/84.7%/104.3%.
1991 - 2020 Avg = 14.4/7.2/3.2
Math = (100%/84.7%/104.3%) X (14.4/7.2/3.2) = 14.4/6.1/3.3 = 14/6/3. This is fairly likely outcome for 2021.
2) 1961 Compared to 1950-2000 Avg Multiplied by 2010-2020 avg = Reasonable worst possible outcome for 2021 based on metal ox year.
12/8/5 Compared to 9.6/5.9/2.3 = yields Metal Ox Yr percentages of 1950-2000 normal = 125%/136%/217%.
2010 – 2020 Avg = 16.8/7.8/3.4
Math = (125%/136%/217%) X (16.8/7.8/3.4) = (21.0/10.6/7.4) = 21/11/7. This is likely worst outcome for 2021.
3) 1961 – 2009 avg + 1991 – 2020 avg / 2 = Reasonable best 2021 outcome based on all ox years from 1961 to present.
(9.6/5/2.4) + (14.4/7.2/3.2) / 2 = 12/6.1/2.8 = 12/6/3. This is likely low-end outcome for 2021.
*Average the 3 for a 2021 outlook*...
Math = (14/6/3) + (21/11/7) + (12/6/3) / 3 = 15.7/7.7/4.3 = 16/8/4, but can also be 16/7/4, 15/8/4 or 15/8/5.
I'll choose the middle of the road 16/8/4. I'm more confident on the hurricane and major hurricane numbers, as weak systems could easily skew the named storm numbers way upward, but the math based on Ox years says 15-16 named storms is likeliest.
Now lets have a look at the 2nd parameter...
PARAMETER 2 -
Significant (Cat 2+) Landfalls / Impacts during the Ox Year Cycle:
Lets take a look back 300 years if possible for a little more accuracy. For last year's outlook we looked back about 250 yrs.
Before 1851:
1769 Earth Ox:
Sep - Strong Hurricane, likely Cat 2, strikes North Carolina Outer Banks and rides up into Virginia and New Jersey as a hurricane.
1793 Water Ox:
Oct - Strong hurricane strikes Jamaica, exact intensity unknown but likely Cat 2+.
1841 Metal Ox:
Oct - Cuba - Florida Keys hurricane hits near Havana and heads north into Key West, likely as Cat 2 with 100 - 110 mph winds.
1851 - Present:
1865 Wood Ox:
Sep - Hurricane tracks into Guadeloupe as a likely Cat 2 storm, causing significant damage and about 300 deaths, before becoming a Caribbean cruiser that went on to affect Hispaniola, Jamaica and southern Cuba before heading NW into the GOM to strike between Texas and western Louisiana as a Cat 3 storm with winds about 115 mph.
Oct - Strengthening hurricane moves up from Caribbean into Havana Cuba as a Cat 1 with 80 mph winds, then strikes Key West as a Category 3 hurricane at peak intensity with winds about 115 mph before crossing South FL while weakening a bit and exiting into the Atlantic thereafter. The storm wrecked most ships in Key West according to reports.
1877 Fire Ox:
Sep - Hurricane takes a low-rider track into Caribbean, devastates Curacao off South American Caribbean coast on September 23, then heads into the GOM to strike the Panama City FL area as Cat 3 with 115 mph winds on October 3. The storm caused a 12-foot storm surge. 84 people were killed in this storm overall.
1889 Earth Ox:
Sep - Category 3 hurricane strikes Yucatan after cruising the Caribbean, the storm then curved north northeast towards the NE Gulf Coast as a weakening Cat 1 storm.
1949 Earth Ox:
Aug - Strengthening Hurricane tracks north of Greater Antilles, then hits Bahamas on August 25 as a rapidly intensifying Cat 3 and strikes Fort Worth, FL as a 130 mph Cat 4 the next day. Major damage was caused in Palm Beach county.
Oct - Hurricane forms in western GOM and heads north into the Freeport TX area as Category 2 storm on October 4.
1961 Metal Ox:
Sept - Hurricane Carla, Cat 4, strikes Texas on September 11 as a very large and powerful storm with sustained 145 mph winds, and gusts to 170 resulting in severe damage over a wide area. Carla even produced an F4 tornado in Galveston that caused major destruction. The hurricane killed 34 people in Texas. The storm originated in the Caribbean prior to entering the GOM and heading for the central TX coast.
Oct - Major Hurricane Hattie reaches Category 5 strength in the Caribbean unusually late on October 30 as it dives SW into Belize, strikes as major 150 mph Cat 4 hurricane on Oct 31 causing severe damage and over 300 deaths.
1985 Wood Ox:
Sep - Hurricane Elena forms in the eastern GOM, does a rare loop off of the FL gulf coast before coming ashore as a Cat 3 near Biloxi, MS. Another strong hurricane, Gloria, tracks just north of the Greater Antilles as a Category 4 storm, before weakening to a Cat 2 as it curved into the NC Outer Banks and then a Cat 1 as it went north into Long Island, NY, bringing much wind and rain to the Northeast US.
Nov - Hurricane Kate, the latest landfalling strong hurricane on record in the US, first slams Cuba as a 110 mph Cat 2 on November 19 before entering the GOM and curving into Mexico Beach for a November 21 landfall as a Cat 2 as well, with 100 mph winds. Kate reached Cat 3 while in the eastern GOM.
The Ox Years and Atlantic Hurricane Landfalls:
Significant Landfalling Hurricanes per Ox Year since 1851:
1853/0, 1865/2, 1877/1, 1889/0, 1901/0, 1913/0, 1925/0, 1937/0, 1949/2, 1961/2, 1973/0, 1985/3, 1997/0, 2009/0.
Average # of significant landfalling hurricanes per Ox Year = 0.71.
This is actually a pretty low average, and this tells us that we could expect 1 significant landfall every other Ox year. Since both 2009 and 1997 didn't have a strong landfall (100+ mph), and the fact that 2021 is the Metal Ox year, we could assume there will actually be at least one strong landfall this season breaking the trend, but likely no more than 2 of them. Also, one of the two strong landfalls this season could very well be a category 2 hurricane too, just below major status but significant enough to get mention.
Notice how certain areas like parts of the Gulf Coast and the Carolina Outer Banks are more common targets during these years. The Year of the Ox seems to favor either far west tracks or recurves, leading to the Greater Antilles and Florida to luck out more often during this 12-year cycle compared to others. The main exception seems to be in October, when the chances for a Cuba-Florida Cat 2 hurricane do go up a bit. The 1949 event is also a big exception, so the odds aren't zero for FL to get hit from the east this season. However, we could say FL may have a lower risk in 2021 than the Gulf States and NC. Overall this wizardry says 2021 may be more tame than some of the other recent years, at least in terms of the number of major hurricanes and landfalls. It isn't out of the question though that we could end up with a 2018-like season. being a Metal Ox year tells me it could also try to emulate 1961 in some ways, leading to this being a high ACE year and 1 to 2 pretty big landfalls.
One thing is for sure IMO regarding this, 2021 isn't going to be another 2020 or 2005.
I think all that you’ve read up to this point, adds some credence to a seemingly slower, likely about-average 2021 season, which would be still somewhat 'busy' considering an 'average' season nowadays gets us to the 'N' or 'O' name with a handful of hurricanes. This is how I think 2021 could end up being, and considering my parameters 1 and 2, here goes my crazy experimental prediction:
2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season Prediction:
2021 ends up with 16 named storms, 8 of which become hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. The main highlights of the season will be that we do get a category 4 or 5 hurricane entering the GOM from the Caribbean in Late August or September, and it may strike land as still a major Cat 3-4 hurricane much like Hurricane Carla did in '61, most likely between Northern Mexico and Louisiana. A second storm, likely a Cat 1 or 2, will brush the NC Outer Banks and remain just offshore as it curves NE. A 3rd strong storm, likely Cat 2, could form south of Cuba and head north towards the Havana area and then cross into the FL Keys and potentially SW Florida in Mid-Late October. Being a Metal Ox year, I'd side with the GOM Hurricane and the Cuba-FL October storm. Alternately, we could see a major October landfall in Central America, most likely Belize, instead of the storm going for Cuba/FL. The rest of the 2021 season may feature recurves that add to the ACE during peak season, and another low-end hurricane or tropical storm, similar to Elsa in track, could take shape in Late July or August. While 2021 may be average, it will still be fairly busy as our "average season" is going up in numbers with climate change, just something to keep in mind.
Alright guys, all that which you've read is just my 2 cents, so please take all of the above with a grain of salt. I must say, however, all of this does give some reason to think that we might be in for a better year in the tropics on this side of the world. Hopefully we do luck out this season, it would be a much needed break for many following the brutality of the epic 2020 season. This doesn't mean zero major hurricane landfalls however, and a 1961 redux is still entirely possible. This thread is experimental and probably geared more towards amusement rather than serious predictions, this is my disclaimer. The future conditions of the Atlantic, i.e. the SST's, ENSO, Teleconnections, MDR favorability, SAL and other meteorological indicators/factors will have the ultimate say in how the season goes, and these factors could change as we head into the peak of hurricane season.
Well, let’s see how 2021 evolves over the next several months, it should be fun and exciting to watch and see if this esoteric stuff has any meaning to the hurricane season.
Btw, for those of you wishing to track a truly busy season, I'd strongly recommend the WPAC... Ox years rarely disappoint in that part of the world, as it seems most of the energy these years gets sent over there in the form of several monster typhoons one after another from September thru November like it happened in 2009 and 1997.
Feel free to ask me questions or write whatever you wish here! We can track 2021 here too, and I’ll
try to keep this thread alive by posting updates, other experimental takes, visuals, and such whenever possible!
-FR
7/15/2021
