But alot of people were very worried due to the FORECAST!!!! :o Any experts opinion or knowledge will be appreciated!! 
Hate to burst your bubbles
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Rainband
Hate to burst your bubbles
With all due respect ..I am wondering what all the hype about HENRI was about..The forecast was for 10-15 inches of rain..isolated amounts of 20 inches.. I am SO HAPPY that didn't occur..what I am wondering is ....How did they mess up so badly on this forecast. The shear was forecast?? Wasn't it?? So what made the forecast so hard??? Just wondering..due to the fact alot of flooded homes and businesses are gonna be relieved. That Henri was the storm///that wasn't But alot of people were very worried due to the FORECAST!!!! :o Any experts opinion or knowledge will be appreciated!!
But alot of people were very worried due to the FORECAST!!!! :o Any experts opinion or knowledge will be appreciated!!
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GalvestonDuck
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Trader Ron
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Pebbles
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Looks like they could of been right on but sheer keeps blowing off the convection preventing faster development.... am I wrong in this assesment? Plus...Henri hasn't hit yet..so I am not going to assume it's over...mother nature always has a way of surprising people
Either way I would of rather been safe then sorry...
Expert thought/knowledge appriciated here also
Either way I would of rather been safe then sorry...
Expert thought/knowledge appriciated here also
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Josephine96
You do know you may still get as much rain as they said right.. The storm hasn't moved onshore yet.. and when it does, if it happens to stall.. Can you say "Allison"..
The winds aren't gonna be a problem but the rains will be. Just wait and see how much rain he dumps before you get relieved...
The winds aren't gonna be a problem but the rains will be. Just wait and see how much rain he dumps before you get relieved...
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GalvestonDuck
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Rainband
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Josephine96
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ColdFront77
The majority of the rainfall with Tropical Storm Henri is still offshore, as the center of the system is still in the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
There is 5 to 10, even 10 to 20 inches of rainfall with slow moving tropical systems, even tropical depressions. With that said, I don't see why the National Hurricane Center and the local National Weather Service offices (in this case mainly Ruskin, Florida-Tampa Bay Area) shouldn't of forecast this much rain.
And, yes indeed, the system has yet to move through north-central Florida, we don't have official totals to go by yet with the system.
There is 5 to 10, even 10 to 20 inches of rainfall with slow moving tropical systems, even tropical depressions. With that said, I don't see why the National Hurricane Center and the local National Weather Service offices (in this case mainly Ruskin, Florida-Tampa Bay Area) shouldn't of forecast this much rain.
And, yes indeed, the system has yet to move through north-central Florida, we don't have official totals to go by yet with the system.
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Rainband
Tom??where do you see more rain offshore??? Look at the radar and satellite..unless it FLARES UP big timeColdFront77 wrote:The majority of the rainfall with Tropical Storm Henri is still offshore, as the center of the system is still in the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
There is 5 to 10, even 10 to 20 inches of rainfall with slow moving tropical systems, even tropical depressions. With that said, I don't see why the National Hurricane Center and the local National Weather Service offices (in this case mainly Ruskin, Florida-Tampa Bay Area) shouldn't of forecast this much rain.
And, yes indeed, the system has yet to move through north-central Florida, we don't have official totals to go by yet with the system.
..what we see is what we get!! 
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ColdFront77
As I am sure you witnessed, Jonathan... I believe you posted about a few hours ago; the convection associated with Tropical Storm Henri "exploded" around 2:00 PM Eastern Time. In the last hour or two it has gotten stretched out across western Florida.
The center with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph with higher gusts is still 75 miles southwest of Cedar Key and moving slowly over the Gulf of Mexico toward the western coast of Florida.
The center with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph with higher gusts is still 75 miles southwest of Cedar Key and moving slowly over the Gulf of Mexico toward the western coast of Florida.
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Rainband
Yes..I guess it could flare-up again :o ..just seems like the shear is getting or got the best of Henri!!ColdFront77 wrote:As I am sure you witnessed, Jonathan... I believe you posted about a few hours ago; the convection associated with Tropical Storm Henri "exploded" around 2:00 PM Eastern Time. In the last hour or two it has gotten stretched out across western Florida.
The center is still 75 miles southwest of Cedar Key and moving slowly over the Gulf of Mexico toward the western coast of Florida.
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GalvestonDuck
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Re: better to err on the side of caution :) n/t
fla_girl wrote:Re: better to err on the side of cautionn/t
True...but it might be easier to post in the subject box. I almost missed your message.
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wxman57
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Several Points
Several points...
1. The center of Henri is still near 28.2N/84W, moving very little
2. There are NO strong winds near this center, none. Winds around this center are in the 15-20 knot range. The only TS force winds were in those squalls that briefly flared up late this morning. Ever since 1pm, the storm has weakened and is now a weak depression.
3. Although heaviest squalls are now inland, the presence of the LLC still offshore means that another band - or two or three - may yet develop and move into the Florida coast before the center moves ashore. All it'll take is a brief let-up in the southwesterly shear, which has pulsed up a bit this afternoon. As far as I can see, Henri may well be nearly stationary again - that could mean shear is about to decrease and another convective burst is imminent off the Florida coast.
4. Noctournal core rainfall - this is what happened with Allison in Houston in 2001. The movement of a very weak area of convergence (i.e., the weak center of Henri) inland at night could result in the development of a core-rainfall event. The amount of rain would depend upon the speed of movement of the weak convective core. Allison was moving at just over 3 kts. Divide 3 into 100 and you get 30+ inches, which is what fell in Houston in one night. This same thing could happen over the Florida peninsula as the weak center of Henri moves across.
So, I would suggest that you hold off judgement on Henri's rain until the main part of the storm has passed Florida. Wind-wise, it's nothing to be concerned about, though.
1. The center of Henri is still near 28.2N/84W, moving very little
2. There are NO strong winds near this center, none. Winds around this center are in the 15-20 knot range. The only TS force winds were in those squalls that briefly flared up late this morning. Ever since 1pm, the storm has weakened and is now a weak depression.
3. Although heaviest squalls are now inland, the presence of the LLC still offshore means that another band - or two or three - may yet develop and move into the Florida coast before the center moves ashore. All it'll take is a brief let-up in the southwesterly shear, which has pulsed up a bit this afternoon. As far as I can see, Henri may well be nearly stationary again - that could mean shear is about to decrease and another convective burst is imminent off the Florida coast.
4. Noctournal core rainfall - this is what happened with Allison in Houston in 2001. The movement of a very weak area of convergence (i.e., the weak center of Henri) inland at night could result in the development of a core-rainfall event. The amount of rain would depend upon the speed of movement of the weak convective core. Allison was moving at just over 3 kts. Divide 3 into 100 and you get 30+ inches, which is what fell in Houston in one night. This same thing could happen over the Florida peninsula as the weak center of Henri moves across.
So, I would suggest that you hold off judgement on Henri's rain until the main part of the storm has passed Florida. Wind-wise, it's nothing to be concerned about, though.
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Rainband