Hate to burst your bubbles

Rainband · #1 Postby **Rainband** » Fri Sep 05, 2003 4:08 pm

With all due respect ..I am wondering what all the hype about HENRI was about..The forecast was for 10-15 inches of rain..isolated amounts of 20 inches.. I am SO HAPPY that didn't occur..what I am wondering is ....How did they mess up so badly on this forecast. The shear was forecast?? Wasn't it?? So what made the forecast so hard??? Just wondering..due to the fact alot of flooded homes and businesses are gonna be relieved. That Henri was the storm///that wasn't :roll:

But alot of people were very worried due to the FORECAST!!!! :o Any experts opinion or knowledge will be appreciated!!

GalvestonDuck · #2 Postby **GalvestonDuck** » Fri Sep 05, 2003 4:12 pm

That's kinda how I felt about Grace. I thought she was weak from what I saw. But then from some others' perspectives - like Ticka - she was a bigger deal.

#3 Postby **Trader Ron** » Fri Sep 05, 2003 4:13 pm

Rainband,
They had a flood watch here in Naples on Tuesday and Wednesday.We didn't have any rain!
Some of these forecasts really bomb.

#4 Postby **Pebbles** » Fri Sep 05, 2003 4:13 pm

Looks like they could of been right on but sheer keeps blowing off the convection preventing faster development.... am I wrong in this assesment? Plus...Henri hasn't hit yet..so I am not going to assume it's over...mother nature always has a way of surprising people

Either way I would of rather been safe then sorry...

Expert thought/knowledge appriciated here also

Josephine96 · #5 Postby **Josephine96** » Fri Sep 05, 2003 4:13 pm

You do know you may still get as much rain as they said right.. The storm hasn't moved onshore yet.. and when it does, if it happens to stall.. Can you say "Allison"..

The winds aren't gonna be a problem but the rains will be. Just wait and see how much rain he dumps before you get relieved...

GalvestonDuck · #6 Postby **GalvestonDuck** » Fri Sep 05, 2003 4:15 pm

Josephine96 wrote:Can you say "Allison"...

Shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!!!!!!!!!!!!! God forbid!!!

Rainband · #7 Postby **Rainband** » Fri Sep 05, 2003 4:16 pm

Good point but our Locals are saying the rain over us will move inland and there isn't much to follow :wink:

But mother nature always has a surprise or two up her sleeve so we will see :roll:

#8 Postby **bfez1** » Fri Sep 05, 2003 4:19 pm

I really believe the worse weather we have ever gotten was always unpredicted. When they predict heavy rains, sleet, etc we never get anything.
Last week we had "heavy downpours" in our forecast 3 days in a row. Well, I'm still waiting! :roll:

Josephine96 · #9 Postby **Josephine96** » Fri Sep 05, 2003 4:21 pm

LOL sorry for mentioning the words stall and Allison in the same sentence.. I forgot some of you are still rather touchy about that name.. By the way.. they replaced her name with Andrea lol.. I looked it up..

Lindaloo · #10 Postby **Lindaloo** » Fri Sep 05, 2003 4:26 pm

You never know what a tropical system will or will not do. Sometimes it is better to be safe than sorry.

ColdFront77 · #11 Postby **ColdFront77** » Fri Sep 05, 2003 4:31 pm

The majority of the rainfall with Tropical Storm Henri is still offshore, as the center of the system is still in the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

There is 5 to 10, even 10 to 20 inches of rainfall with slow moving tropical systems, even tropical depressions. With that said, I don't see why the National Hurricane Center and the local National Weather Service offices (in this case mainly Ruskin, Florida-Tampa Bay Area) shouldn't of forecast this much rain.

And, yes indeed, the system has yet to move through north-central Florida, we don't have official totals to go by yet with the system.

Rainband · #12 Postby **Rainband** » Fri Sep 05, 2003 4:33 pm

ColdFront77 wrote:The majority of the rainfall with Tropical Storm Henri is still offshore, as the center of the system is still in the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

There is 5 to 10, even 10 to 20 inches of rainfall with slow moving tropical systems, even tropical depressions. With that said, I don't see why the National Hurricane Center and the local National Weather Service offices (in this case mainly Ruskin, Florida-Tampa Bay Area) shouldn't of forecast this much rain.

And, yes indeed, the system has yet to move through north-central Florida, we don't have official totals to go by yet with the system.

Tom??where do you see more rain offshore??? Look at the radar and satellite..unless it FLARES UP big time :roll:

..what we see is what we get!! :wink:

ColdFront77 · #13 Postby **ColdFront77** » Fri Sep 05, 2003 4:40 pm

As I am sure you witnessed, Jonathan... I believe you posted about a few hours ago; the convection associated with Tropical Storm Henri "exploded" around 2:00 PM Eastern Time. In the last hour or two it has gotten stretched out across western Florida.

The center with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph with higher gusts is still 75 miles southwest of Cedar Key and moving slowly over the Gulf of Mexico toward the western coast of Florida.

Rainband · #14 Postby **Rainband** » Fri Sep 05, 2003 4:42 pm

ColdFront77 wrote:As I am sure you witnessed, Jonathan... I believe you posted about a few hours ago; the convection associated with Tropical Storm Henri "exploded" around 2:00 PM Eastern Time. In the last hour or two it has gotten stretched out across western Florida.

The center is still 75 miles southwest of Cedar Key and moving slowly over the Gulf of Mexico toward the western coast of Florida.

Yes..I guess it could flare-up again :o ..just seems like the shear is getting or got the best of Henri!! :wink:

fla_girl · #15 Postby **fla_girl** » Fri Sep 05, 2003 4:45 pm

GalvestonDuck · #16 Postby **GalvestonDuck** » Fri Sep 05, 2003 4:47 pm

fla_girl wrote:Re: better to err on the side of caution n/t

True...but it might be easier to post in the subject box. I almost missed your message. :wink:

Lindaloo · #17 Postby **Lindaloo** » Fri Sep 05, 2003 4:53 pm

rainstorm used to do that all the time too. She picked up the habit from TWC. lol. She is getting better at it.

Aquawind · #18 Postby **Aquawind** » Fri Sep 05, 2003 5:10 pm

Not my Bubble!!!! NOOOOOOOOOO !!!! :2gunfire:

#19 Postby **wxman57** » Fri Sep 05, 2003 5:52 pm

Several points...

1. The center of Henri is still near 28.2N/84W, moving very little

2. There are NO strong winds near this center, none. Winds around this center are in the 15-20 knot range. The only TS force winds were in those squalls that briefly flared up late this morning. Ever since 1pm, the storm has weakened and is now a weak depression.

3. Although heaviest squalls are now inland, the presence of the LLC still offshore means that another band - or two or three - may yet develop and move into the Florida coast before the center moves ashore. All it'll take is a brief let-up in the southwesterly shear, which has pulsed up a bit this afternoon. As far as I can see, Henri may well be nearly stationary again - that could mean shear is about to decrease and another convective burst is imminent off the Florida coast.

4. Noctournal core rainfall - this is what happened with Allison in Houston in 2001. The movement of a very weak area of convergence (i.e., the weak center of Henri) inland at night could result in the development of a core-rainfall event. The amount of rain would depend upon the speed of movement of the weak convective core. Allison was moving at just over 3 kts. Divide 3 into 100 and you get 30+ inches, which is what fell in Houston in one night. This same thing could happen over the Florida peninsula as the weak center of Henri moves across.

So, I would suggest that you hold off judgement on Henri's rain until the main part of the storm has passed Florida. Wind-wise, it's nothing to be concerned about, though.

Rainband · #20 Postby **Rainband** » Fri Sep 05, 2003 6:00 pm

Wow!!! I just got an eduction!!! Thanks Wxman57!!! You explained all my questions in one post!!Thats why Storm2k!!!!! RULES!!!

I hope...I am not eating crow for a week!!! :o

Hate to burst your bubbles

Hate to burst your bubbles

better to err on the side of caution :) n/t

Re: better to err on the side of caution :) n/t

Several Points

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