2025 WPAC Season

[Hayabusa]

2024 wasn't that active in ACE, after El Nino ended in early 2024, the rest of the year was in a neutral state and the latest 3 month ONI it's still in cool neutral but other indices like the RONI says La Nina. Moving to 2025 latest CPC predictions show a higher percentage probability of ENSO neutral for 2025, an ENSO neutral for the Pacific typhoon season could mean more ACE just as much if not more than an El Nino season or you know it could end like 2024 again, the coupled ocean-atmosphere are not in sync... well I still predict above average maybe I'll be finally right for 2025

Unless 98W becomes a named storm and/or a year end/crossover named TC forms as the GFS is hinting, here are the next names.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Assuming nothing gets named from here on in 2024, 2025 starts with the exact same name in 2019 (Pabuk).

Having a two seasons with the same is rare because of the continuous naming convention, in contrast to the EPac/Atl. It did come close (2009 ran one name ahead of 2003).

[cycloneye]

Will this years typhoon season has it's first cyclone after May 25th or it has something before that date when in 2024, the first one, Ewiniar developed?

[cycloneye]

Will this years typhoon season has it's first cyclone after May 25th or it has something before that date when in 2024, the first one, Ewiniar developed?

Almost a month after I posted that, and basin is still sleeping.

[Hayabusa]

Will this years typhoon season has it's first cyclone after May 25th or it has something before that date when in 2024, the first one, Ewiniar developed?

Almost a month after I posted that, and basin is still sleeping.

The GFS wants to form a low in the 3rd week as the MJO passes, but it's the GFS...

[Hayabusa]

Watch for possible tropical development as it nears the end of April, CFS shows something... while GFS (as usual the most aggressive) and Euro AI started to hint it.

[StormWeather]

Does anyone know if the JTWC’s operational highlights and challenges for 2024 globally are out?

[cycloneye]

CPC does not have any development thru May 13.

[cycloneye]

Finnally, looks like an ensemble consensus to have the first named storm next week. Wutip is the name that will be used.

[mrbagyo]

[cycloneye]

Let's see if May 2025 there are Tropical storms and typhoons like in the past 5 years.

[Hayabusa]

With the failed 99W and 90W, the next possible tropical development is in 2 weeks, Euro long range including the AI version is already hinting it.

[cycloneye]

Euro AIF continues to hint in the long range period, on may 20.

[cycloneye]

PAGASA has no TC's for the next 2 weeks.

[Hayabusa]

GFS hyping again, forms the low in 10 days.

[cycloneye]

TSR released their May forecast=25/15/8.

https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/ ... ay2025.pdf

[StormWeather]

May 13th and the first storm hasn’t formed yet. Last year got to May 24th without the first storm.

These past five years the WPAC has really been big on not having pre-April storms (other than 01W in March 2022)

I wonder why the basin has been starting so late lately? It also the second year in a row that the Northern Hemisphere has gone this late without a single storm forming anywhere. 2024 started with Ewiniar in the Western Pacific on May 24th.

[cycloneye]

CPC highlights tropical activity for weeks 2-3.

[cycloneye]

Interesting this tweet from Phil.

@philklotzbach
There have been 0 Northern Hemisphere named storms (e.g., >=39 mph) so far in 2025. 5 other years since 1950 have had 0 Northern Hemisphere named storms through 15 May: 1973, 1983, 1984, 1998, and 2024. #hurricane #typhoon

 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1923009944976031762

[Hayabusa]

As we near the end of May, we start to see the shift of prevailing winds to southwesterly over the Philippines possibly being enhanced associated with a possible tropical development...