18:00 UTC Tropical model suite=Isabel to Colombia !!!!!

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145486
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

18:00 UTC Tropical model suite=Isabel to Colombia !!!!!

#1 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 11, 2003 1:37 pm

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/03091118

This is like an excersise up and down up and down but let's see if they go up at 00Z or stay south tonight.Colombia should be preparing. :)
Last edited by cycloneye on Thu Sep 11, 2003 2:10 pm, edited 4 times in total.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
chris_fit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3222
Age: 42
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:58 pm
Location: Tampa Bay Area, FL

#2 Postby chris_fit » Thu Sep 11, 2003 1:38 pm

Link dont work :(
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145486
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#3 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 11, 2003 1:40 pm

I can open it is good link. :)
0 likes   
Top
rob8303
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 147
Joined: Sun Jul 20, 2003 10:20 pm
Location: Montrose, B.C, Canada
Contact:
Contact rob8303

Re: 18:00 UTC Tropical model suite=Are more south with track

#4 Postby rob8303 » Thu Sep 11, 2003 1:40 pm

cycloneye wrote:http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/atlantic/models/03091118

This is like an excersise up and down up and down but let's see if they go up at 00Z or stay south tonight.


WOW!!!!
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ameriwx2003
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 980
Joined: Tue Jul 22, 2003 10:45 am

#5 Postby ameriwx2003 » Thu Sep 11, 2003 1:41 pm

Take a look at the BAMD solution lol.. I doubt that:):)
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145486
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#6 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 11, 2003 1:43 pm

I too dont see that BAMD solution as a credible one.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ameriwx2003
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 980
Joined: Tue Jul 22, 2003 10:45 am

#7 Postby ameriwx2003 » Thu Sep 11, 2003 1:46 pm

Luis.. nor do I.. Are the Tropical models run off the GFS data?. I am curious to know if they are or not:):)
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
weathergymnast
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 123
Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2003 11:47 am
Contact:
Contact weathergymnast

#8 Postby weathergymnast » Thu Sep 11, 2003 1:48 pm

We have one model Giving up and taking it on a one way trip to the rain forest. ^^" We have another one saying it is going to stop in its track and then reverse. ^^" Oh so much fun.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145486
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#9 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 11, 2003 1:48 pm

Good question you ask ameriwx2003 but let's hope someone comes with an answer. :)
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Ground_Zero_92
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 292
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 11:23 am
Location: South Hutchinson Island / Stuart, FL

Re: 18:00 UTC Tropical model suite=Are more south with track

#10 Postby Ground_Zero_92 » Thu Sep 11, 2003 1:50 pm

cycloneye wrote:This is like an excersise up and down up and down but let's see if they go up at 00Z or stay south tonight.


PULL OUT THE PROZAC!!!

I'm Happy :lol: ... I'm Sad :( ... I'm Happy :lol: ... I'm Sad :( ... Good Model Run... :lol: Bad Model Run :(

Geezz, we're all going to get Manic Depression if we keep looking at these models run to run!!
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145486
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#11 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 11, 2003 1:51 pm

Someone bring a grafic of this to see those lines all over the place. :lol: :lol:
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Weathermaster
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 79
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 10:33 am
Location: Carolina, PR

Here is the graphic....

#12 Postby Weathermaster » Thu Sep 11, 2003 1:56 pm

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... model.html
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145486
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#13 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 11, 2003 1:58 pm

Oh my Isabel to Colombia wow. :)
0 likes   
Top
rob8303
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 147
Joined: Sun Jul 20, 2003 10:20 pm
Location: Montrose, B.C, Canada
Contact:
Contact rob8303

#14 Postby rob8303 » Thu Sep 11, 2003 1:58 pm

HOW THE HECK IS THIS STORM GOING TO WEAKEN 25-30 MPH IN JUST 1 DAY? RE-SHIPS? :x
0 likes   
Top
MWatkins
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2574
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2002 7:51 pm
Location: SE Florida
Contact:
Contact MWatkins

Yes They Are

#15 Postby MWatkins » Thu Sep 11, 2003 2:02 pm

ameriwx2003 wrote:Luis.. nor do I.. Are the Tropical models run off the GFS data?. I am curious to know if they are or not:):)


The tropicals were run off the 6Z GFS at 12Z and the 18Z models go against the 12Z background. The 6Z gfs was a mess but it has sort of righted itself at 12Z which is why the models have come back to the left.

The GFS should stand for the Global Flipflop Suite.

MW
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145486
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#16 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 11, 2003 2:04 pm

LOL :) MW
0 likes   
Top
stormernie

#17 Postby stormernie » Thu Sep 11, 2003 2:04 pm

The suite is run using the GFS as the background, thus, don't put much into it. The one we should be relying on is the ECMWF (European).

Ernie
0 likes   
Top
rob8303
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 147
Joined: Sun Jul 20, 2003 10:20 pm
Location: Montrose, B.C, Canada
Contact:
Contact rob8303

Re: Yes They Are

#18 Postby rob8303 » Thu Sep 11, 2003 2:04 pm

MWatkins wrote:
ameriwx2003 wrote:Luis.. nor do I.. Are the Tropical models run off the GFS data?. I am curious to know if they are or not:):)


The tropicals were run off the 6Z GFS at 12Z and the 18Z models go against the 12Z background. The 6Z gfs was a mess but it has sort of righted itself at 12Z which is why the models have come back to the left.

The GFS should stand for the Global Flipflop Suite.

MW


:lol: :lol: :lol:
Yes, the GFS has multiple personality disorder. MikeW, do you see this getting past the 75 w line?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
HeatherAKC
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 286
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 2:28 pm
Location: Miami Lakes, Florida

LOL!!

#19 Postby HeatherAKC » Thu Sep 11, 2003 2:06 pm

This is making me mad! Mad, crazy. Going north, going south, Sfla hit, NC hit, trough, high pressure, west, north. ACKKKK!!!!!! (Pulls out hair) It's *almost* funny. But somehow, not quite......
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
JCT777
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6251
Joined: Mon Oct 14, 2002 9:21 am
Location: Spring Mount, PA
Contact:
Contact JCT777

#20 Postby JCT777 » Thu Sep 11, 2003 2:12 pm

The LBAR looks like the most sane track, IMO.
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: South Texas Storms and 69 guests