Isabel and the NW turn...

[obxhurricane]

Much has been said the past few days on the eventual track of Isabel...including my prediction last night of a raker from Hatteras to Long Island. Well, my forecast stands.

Once again, after looking at all the guidance tonight it is clear they all forecast a weakness in the ridge between 70 and 75 West with one ridge over the northern Atlantic and another one over the midwest. There will only be one place for this cyclone to move beyond day 3 and that is NW and then eventually North. Isabel will be very close to Hatteras in 8 days.

[wrkh99]

WNW after day 3 is possible but not NW or North

[Anonymous]

No way will that ridge weaken that much. The trough will be late and be bounched off. The remnants of henri (who got tore up by shear) will move inland and the ridge will build. No room for Isabel to even turn (and if she did turn more North the max it would be is wnw).

[obxhurricane]

I don't necessarily want it to hit me...although I must admit I have a thing for being in the eye of a hurricane. I've lived here my entire life and have been through many hurricanes...I must admit I enjoy the action.

But that is not the basis of my thinking or forecasting. If not truely NW after day 3 then it will be mighty close to NW...fair enough?

[obxhurricane]

Have you guys really taken a close look at the model guidance? There WILL be a weakness in the ridge. A well organized cyclone like Isabel only needs to feel a slight weakness to tun poleward. Also...this is September afterall...climo tells us that storms recurve in the Atlantic in mid to late September.

[obxhurricane]

And the 0Z GFDL comes in with a turn to the NW after day 4.

Here are the numbers...

0 21.6 55.7 280./ 8.0
6 21.7 56.6 277./ 8.2
12 21.7 57.4 269./ 7.7
18 21.8 58.2 274./ 7.3
24 21.7 58.9 269./ 6.6
30 21.9 59.8 280./ 8.2
36 22.2 60.5 295./ 7.8
42 22.6 61.5 292./ 9.8
48 23.0 62.4 293./ 9.2
54 23.4 63.5 288./10.9
60 23.8 64.6 292./10.3
66 24.2 65.6 293./10.5
72 24.6 66.4 295./ 8.4
78 25.0 67.4 292./ 9.2
84 25.4 68.2 298./ 8.8
90 25.9 68.8 308./ 6.6
96 26.3 69.3 310./ 6.3
102 26.7 69.9 304./ 6.4
108 27.2 70.3 324./ 6.6
114 28.0 70.4 348./ 7.9
120 28.9 70.6 350./ 8.4
126 29.9 71.0 337./10.7

[obxhurricane]

Latest satellite imagery shows the cloud pattern starting to get elongated from NW to SE...probably an early sign of a slighly more north of west track. This thing will start moving WNW in the next day then NW by 70 W.


Watch out Mid-Atlantic...here she comes.

[Stormcenter]

And then she will move out to sea. I hope I'm right!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[obxhurricane]

I'll repeat what I said a few days ago...coastal raker from Hatteras to Long Island. I'm still convinced. I'm very surprised anyone is still talking about Florida. Florida will never see this cane.

[~SirCane]

Florida will never see this cane.
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I don't think you should be talking like that. This is a CAT 5 Hurricane we're talking about!!!

[GulfBreezer]

Florida will never see this cane.
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I don't think you should be talking like that. This is a CAT 5 Hurricane we're talking about!!!

I AGREE SIR!! No bold statements on Isabel! Too much room for error and putting some people off guard when EVERYONE should remain vigilant and watch her until she is through!

[Josephine96]

ANYONE WHO MAKES A REMARK of "Florida will never see this hurricane" should take a closer look at it...

1. It's headed straight for us...
2. That was a STUPID statement to make..
3. If the ridge holds, any North or NW turn would be slight and not dramatic enough to keep her away from Florida

[vbhoutex]

OBX, I respect your weather expertise as I've watched you over the years, but what about the fact that storms as strong as Isabel often tend to rebuild the ridges to their N? I see what you are talking about but I am not convinced that the fridge will not be built back in by the time that Isabel has a chance to respond to the weakness.

[obxhurricane]

so then...by your logic we should give the people living in the mid-Atlantic a false sense of security?

I'm just telling you how I see things shaping up. Take it for what it's worth. Of course people in Florida should remain on gaurd until the storm moves North of your latitude...that is the rule of thumb for all hurricanes. I'm telling you though...Isabel is not going to Florida.

[obxhurricane]

vb: Your right, they do have that tendancy. But we must focus on each storm and what is happening righ now. I can't see any other alternative for this storm other than poleward after 3 days.

[Josephine96]

OBX... Do you realize how stupid you sound when you say "this storm is not coming to Florida" that really makes you sound like you think you are a weather god..

I believe Florida is still in her bulls eye..

[obxhurricane]

I believe Florida is still in her bulls eye..

And that's any less of God complex?

I'm not trying to be a weather God...I'm just giving you my opinion on the matter at hand. Take it or leave it. I don't feel as if I'm a weather God...but I do feel confident that my opinion is an educated one.

[Josephine96]

OBX.. Ok.. You're right.. Care to sign the peace treaty and let by gones be by gones..? lol

[chris_fit]

Lookin like a north wobble here

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[caribepr]

Just a little thought here from the islands...waiting on storms can make all of us a tad touchy (was going to say tetchy, but too close to techy and that's not a BAD thing) with the stress of wondering. For us in the VI's and PR, watching Fabian and Isabel has been stressful indeed...but as we say here often, prepare for the worst, hope for the best and keep the rum barrel stocked. No matter how much we know, it's the SCIENCE that is fascinating...and NATURE that is phenomenal;)