Why more westerly

#1 Postby **Vortex** » Sun Sep 14, 2003 3:56 pm

Overall today the track has been more westerly than global models suggested it would be at present. Even currently the motion is more of a 275-280. It way not be until tommorrow until we see a nw heading. This exerpt from NHC discussion explains why the more west component in the short-term:

One disturbing bit of information is that the 12z
UKMET... GFS...GFDL...and Canadian models did not analyze the 500
mb height and wind fields to the 12z Bermuda upper-air observation
of 10 kt northeast wind and 5940 meter height. This observation
suggests that the ridge to the north of Bermuda and Isabel extends
southwestward farther than those four models are indicating.

#2 Postby **charleston_hugo_veteran** » Sun Sep 14, 2003 3:57 pm

Now they tell us that!!!......gezzz :roll:

chris_fit · #3 Postby **chris_fit** » Sun Sep 14, 2003 3:59 pm

Shouldn't be a big factor if that trough is as strong as they say!

Cheers!

~Chris

John · #4 Postby **John** » Sun Sep 14, 2003 4:01 pm

I been trying to tell you all that for day's.
Johm

wrkh99 · #5 Postby **wrkh99** » Sun Sep 14, 2003 4:03 pm

Is your name John or Johm ?

#6 Postby **Air Force Met** » Sun Sep 14, 2003 4:05 pm

THe west motion is due to the first trof lifting out. That happens when you have two trofs and one lifts out. You get a temp movement back to the west or WNW. AS the trof lifts...you get a little ridging. IF you look off to the west...here comes bertha the big bad momma trof. You people in Florida better thank her.

As far the the bad ingestation of data...I think they were still hoping somewhat for a fish...right now the track is bad news because of the large eye...which means a huge eyewall and fast forward motion.

#7 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Sun Sep 14, 2003 4:05 pm

John has been saying that for days -- and I've been agreeing with him. The chubby gal has not sounded her final note on the Big Turn.

bobbisboy · #8 Postby **bobbisboy** » Sun Sep 14, 2003 4:07 pm

Have read what you had to say and your analysis of the low filling and the ridge extending. Since you picked up on this when no one else did until Stewart's 5PM discussion, how do you annalyse it now? What do you see happening. Thanks in advance and kudos.

#9 Postby **Deenac813** » Sun Sep 14, 2003 4:18 pm

Air Force Met wrote:IF you look off to the west...here comes bertha the big bad momma trof. You people in Florida better thank her.

Thanks Bertha.. we appreciate it!! :lol:

Why more westerly

Why more westerly

Tandem Ridging

John.....

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