Why more westerly

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
Vortex
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4644
Age: 53
Joined: Fri Aug 01, 2003 9:34 pm
Location: Hilton Head, SC

Why more westerly

#1 Postby Vortex » Sun Sep 14, 2003 3:56 pm

Overall today the track has been more westerly than global models suggested it would be at present. Even currently the motion is more of a 275-280. It way not be until tommorrow until we see a nw heading. This exerpt from NHC discussion explains why the more west component in the short-term:

One disturbing bit of information is that the 12z
UKMET... GFS...GFDL...and Canadian models did not analyze the 500
mb height and wind fields to the 12z Bermuda upper-air observation
of 10 kt northeast wind and 5940 meter height. This observation
suggests that the ridge to the north of Bermuda and Isabel extends
southwestward farther than those four models are indicating.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
charleston_hugo_veteran
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1590
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 12:47 pm
Location: Charleston, S.C.

#2 Postby charleston_hugo_veteran » Sun Sep 14, 2003 3:57 pm

Now they tell us that!!!......gezzz :roll:
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
chris_fit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3222
Age: 42
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:58 pm
Location: Tampa Bay Area, FL

#3 Postby chris_fit » Sun Sep 14, 2003 3:59 pm

Shouldn't be a big factor if that trough is as strong as they say!


Cheers!

~Chris
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
John
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 63
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 8:01 pm
Location: Miami FL

Tandem Ridging

#4 Postby John » Sun Sep 14, 2003 4:01 pm

I been trying to tell you all that for day's.
Johm
0 likes   
Top
wrkh99

#5 Postby wrkh99 » Sun Sep 14, 2003 4:03 pm

Is your name John or Johm ?
0 likes   
Top
Air Force Met
Military Met
Military Met
Posts: 4372
Age: 56
Joined: Tue Jul 08, 2003 9:30 am
Location: Roan Mountain, TN

#6 Postby Air Force Met » Sun Sep 14, 2003 4:05 pm

THe west motion is due to the first trof lifting out. That happens when you have two trofs and one lifts out. You get a temp movement back to the west or WNW. AS the trof lifts...you get a little ridging. IF you look off to the west...here comes bertha the big bad momma trof. You people in Florida better thank her.

As far the the bad ingestation of data...I think they were still hoping somewhat for a fish...right now the track is bad news because of the large eye...which means a huge eyewall and fast forward motion.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
dixiebreeze
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5140
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 5:07 pm
Location: crystal river, fla.

#7 Postby dixiebreeze » Sun Sep 14, 2003 4:05 pm

John has been saying that for days -- and I've been agreeing with him. The chubby gal has not sounded her final note on the Big Turn.
0 likes   
Top
bobbisboy
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 85
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 5:27 pm

John.....

#8 Postby bobbisboy » Sun Sep 14, 2003 4:07 pm

Have read what you had to say and your analysis of the low filling and the ridge extending. Since you picked up on this when no one else did until Stewart's 5PM discussion, how do you annalyse it now? What do you see happening. Thanks in advance and kudos.
0 likes   
Top
Deenac813
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 788
Joined: Sat Sep 06, 2003 5:16 pm
Location: Hollywood, Florida

#9 Postby Deenac813 » Sun Sep 14, 2003 4:18 pm

Air Force Met wrote:IF you look off to the west...here comes bertha the big bad momma trof. You people in Florida better thank her.


Thanks Bertha.. we appreciate it!! :lol:
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: cajungal, Hurricane2022, Hurricaneman, johngaltfla, riapal, RomP, SootyTern and 38 guests