New Vortex Msg - Pressure Back Up a Tad

[wxman57]

It's at 28.1N / 71.5W now. Pressure 957mb, up 1mb from earlier. Max FL winds 109kts - about 98 kts. Strong Cat 2.

URNT12 KNHC 162347
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 16/2347Z
B. 28 DEG 08 MIN N
71 DEG 28 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2696 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 144 DEG 100 KT
G. 042 DEG 053 NM
H. 957 MB
I. 9 C/ 3106 M
J. 16 C/ 3106 M
K. 13 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. E09/25/18
N. 12345/7
O. 0.1/1 NM
P. AF963 1713A ISABEL OB 31
MAX FL WIND 109 KT E QUAD 2303Z. MAX TEMP 18C AND LOWEST EXTRAP SLP 950MB 220/11NM FROM FL CENTER.

[Rainband]

Hopefully it keeps going up for the sake of those in her path :o

[mike01205]

wxman57 but that is The East Quadrant.

The NE quadrant must be stronger than that doesn't it?

[wxman57]

wxman57 but that is The East Quadrant.

The NE quadrant must be stronger than that doesn't it?

Strongest winds are in the eastern half of the storm NE-E-SE. But lowest pressure is in the center. I don't doubt there are stronger winds in a few places in that eastern half. It's a big storm.

[JetMaxx]

I saw a report of 111 kts in the NE eyewall..equating to 100 kts at the surface....IMHO Miles Lawrence should have at least raised the intensity from 90 to 95 kts at 00z.....I would have, and bet money Stacy Stewart would have too.

[JetMaxx]

Recon reported a pressure of 950 mb/ 28.05" 11 n mi sw of where they fixed the center...which makes me wonder if the 957 mb report was the true center of the eye....or did they miss the center, and the 950 mb pressure reading the true central pressure...

I guess we'll know in a few hours....on the next penetration of the eyewall.

[mike01205]

Perry I thought the same thing why a pressure of 950mb?

[Stormsfury]

Well I'm at a lost here myself ...

I think I can eliminate two possible scenarios.

1) Isabel isn't THAT improperly stacked, IMO, from westerly shear.
2) Isabel doesn't have the mesovorticities that it once did when it was annular.

Otherwise, I honestly am not sure.

SF

[JetMaxx]

Also note the warmest temp at flight level (18°c) was ALSO at the location of the lowest pressure (950 mb) -- yet they claim it wasn't the true center?

That's B.S. guys....everyone knows the lowest pressure AND warmest temps are located at the center of the eye.
I think the recon missed the center, and Miles Lawrence was too friggin clueless to pick up on it.

If I were the NHC forecaster, this hurricane would be initialized at 100 kts and 950 mb....based on both the lowest pressure and warmest eye temp at that same location. If that point isn't the center of the eye -- it soon will be..

[Stormsfury]

Also note the warmest temp at flight level (18°c) was ALSO at the location of the lowest pressure (950 mb) -- yet they claim it wasn't the true center?

That's B.S. guys....everyone knows the lowest pressure AND warmest temps are located at the center of the eye.
I think the recon missed the center, and Miles Lawrence was too friggin clueless to pick up on it.

If I were the NHC forecaster, this hurricane would be initialized at 100 kts and 950 mb....based on both the lowest pressure and warmest eye temp at that same location. If that point isn't the center of the eye -- it soon will be..

Hmmm.... that would also sure throw out the northerly movement as well, wouldn't it? Hopefully the next RECON fix will clue us in ... this left us with many mysteries.

SF

[soonertwister]

If the 950 mb reading correct, that's a drop of what - 8 mb? And in what kind of time frame?

Still a chance of rapid deepening?

[mike01205]

GREAT POINT PERRY.

I totally agree with you, that must be the center

[mike01205]

sooner look at radar either IR or vis it clearly shows it is strengtening

[soonertwister]

Just checked. Assuming extrap is correct, that's a 9 mb drop in 6 hours. If that is the beginning of a strengthening cycle, then a drop to 917 mb in another 18 hours would classify as rapid deepening, or a drop to 929 in 6 more hours would qualify as explosive.

Keep an eye on that. If in 6 hours the pressure is below 940, big trouble could be ahead.

[Stormsfury]

Just checked. Assuming extrap is correct, that's a 9 mb drop in 6 hours. If that is the beginning of a strengthening cycle, then a drop to 917 mb in another 18 hours would classify as rapid deepening, or a drop to 929 in 6 more hours would qualify as explosive.

Keep an eye on that. If in 6 hours the pressure is below 940, big trouble could be ahead.

Well we definitely need another recon fix before we can jump to that conclusion right now...

SF

[rick-g]

Did any one else comment on how big the storm has become in the last few days? it went from hurricane winds from 45 to 60 miles to 160 miles (from the center).

Rick G

[soonertwister]

According to the forecast/advisory, hurricane force winds don't extend out that far, but it is very possible that hurricane force will sweep a swath considerably more than 100 miles wide at landfall.

Pretty serious stuff. Andrew was nowhere near that big.