New Vortex Msg - Pressure Back Up a Tad
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- wxman57
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New Vortex Msg - Pressure Back Up a Tad
It's at 28.1N / 71.5W now. Pressure 957mb, up 1mb from earlier. Max FL winds 109kts - about 98 kts. Strong Cat 2.
URNT12 KNHC 162347
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 16/2347Z
B. 28 DEG 08 MIN N
71 DEG 28 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2696 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 144 DEG 100 KT
G. 042 DEG 053 NM
H. 957 MB
I. 9 C/ 3106 M
J. 16 C/ 3106 M
K. 13 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. E09/25/18
N. 12345/7
O. 0.1/1 NM
P. AF963 1713A ISABEL OB 31
MAX FL WIND 109 KT E QUAD 2303Z. MAX TEMP 18C AND LOWEST EXTRAP SLP 950MB 220/11NM FROM FL CENTER.
URNT12 KNHC 162347
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 16/2347Z
B. 28 DEG 08 MIN N
71 DEG 28 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2696 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 144 DEG 100 KT
G. 042 DEG 053 NM
H. 957 MB
I. 9 C/ 3106 M
J. 16 C/ 3106 M
K. 13 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. E09/25/18
N. 12345/7
O. 0.1/1 NM
P. AF963 1713A ISABEL OB 31
MAX FL WIND 109 KT E QUAD 2303Z. MAX TEMP 18C AND LOWEST EXTRAP SLP 950MB 220/11NM FROM FL CENTER.
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- wxman57
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mike01205 wrote:wxman57 but that is The East Quadrant.
The NE quadrant must be stronger than that doesn't it?
Strongest winds are in the eastern half of the storm NE-E-SE. But lowest pressure is in the center. I don't doubt there are stronger winds in a few places in that eastern half. It's a big storm.
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Recon reported a pressure of 950 mb/ 28.05" 11 n mi sw of where they fixed the center...which makes me wonder if the 957 mb report was the true center of the eye....or did they miss the center, and the 950 mb pressure reading the true central pressure...
I guess we'll know in a few hours....on the next penetration of the eyewall.
I guess we'll know in a few hours....on the next penetration of the eyewall.
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- Stormsfury
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Also note the warmest temp at flight level (18°c) was ALSO at the location of the lowest pressure (950 mb) -- yet they claim it wasn't the true center?
That's B.S. guys....everyone knows the lowest pressure AND warmest temps are located at the center of the eye.
I think the recon missed the center, and Miles Lawrence was too friggin clueless to pick up on it.
If I were the NHC forecaster, this hurricane would be initialized at 100 kts and 950 mb....based on both the lowest pressure and warmest eye temp at that same location. If that point isn't the center of the eye -- it soon will be..
That's B.S. guys....everyone knows the lowest pressure AND warmest temps are located at the center of the eye.
I think the recon missed the center, and Miles Lawrence was too friggin clueless to pick up on it.
If I were the NHC forecaster, this hurricane would be initialized at 100 kts and 950 mb....based on both the lowest pressure and warmest eye temp at that same location. If that point isn't the center of the eye -- it soon will be..
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- Stormsfury
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JetMaxx wrote:Also note the warmest temp at flight level (18°c) was ALSO at the location of the lowest pressure (950 mb) -- yet they claim it wasn't the true center?
That's B.S. guys....everyone knows the lowest pressure AND warmest temps are located at the center of the eye.
I think the recon missed the center, and Miles Lawrence was too friggin clueless to pick up on it.
If I were the NHC forecaster, this hurricane would be initialized at 100 kts and 950 mb....based on both the lowest pressure and warmest eye temp at that same location. If that point isn't the center of the eye -- it soon will be..
Hmmm.... that would also sure throw out the northerly movement as well, wouldn't it? Hopefully the next RECON fix will clue us in ... this left us with many mysteries.
SF
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Just checked. Assuming extrap is correct, that's a 9 mb drop in 6 hours. If that is the beginning of a strengthening cycle, then a drop to 917 mb in another 18 hours would classify as rapid deepening, or a drop to 929 in 6 more hours would qualify as explosive.
Keep an eye on that. If in 6 hours the pressure is below 940, big trouble could be ahead.
Keep an eye on that. If in 6 hours the pressure is below 940, big trouble could be ahead.
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- Stormsfury
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soonertwister wrote:Just checked. Assuming extrap is correct, that's a 9 mb drop in 6 hours. If that is the beginning of a strengthening cycle, then a drop to 917 mb in another 18 hours would classify as rapid deepening, or a drop to 929 in 6 more hours would qualify as explosive.
Keep an eye on that. If in 6 hours the pressure is below 940, big trouble could be ahead.
Well we definitely need another recon fix before we can jump to that conclusion right now...
SF
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