Tropical Depression 11 Thoughts

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MWatkins
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Tropical Depression 11 Thoughts

#1 Postby MWatkins » Mon Sep 13, 2004 4:36 pm

It is very early in the game with this system...and if it does not fall apart in the next 24 hours or so...it has a good shot at becoming a hurricane ahead of the TPC forecast.

If Ivan maintains it's forecast track from the TPC...he could hurtle TD11 back in the general direction of Florida late in the forecast period as he flips over. This is not set in stone...the GFS wants to turn the TD north before reaching 69W. However...consider the fact the the models have been early with these types of curves...and the fact that the NOGAPS places this system very close to the Keys in 120 hours or so.

Keep in mind that until the track trend and development curves get established...these are some of the hardest forecasts to make and the track may jump around some during the next day or so.

So much for sleeping this week.

MW
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#2 Postby ameriwx2003 » Mon Sep 13, 2004 4:56 pm

The 12Z Euro also places TD 11 near the Keys in the 6 to 7 day range
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#3 Postby Stormtrack03 » Mon Sep 13, 2004 4:57 pm

This storm could be a future GOM storm.
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#4 Postby Brent » Mon Sep 13, 2004 4:59 pm

Stormtrack03 wrote:This storm could be a future GOM storm.


Oh how freaking wonderful. :roll: :grr:
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#neversummer
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#5 Postby crazycajuncane » Mon Sep 13, 2004 5:35 pm

I just hope the activity completely stops as of October.

I hope we aren't still naming storms in December! :eek:
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#6 Postby CFLCaneWatcher » Mon Sep 13, 2004 5:38 pm

Thanks Mike.

I, for one, appreciate your updates and candor...as I'm sure the others do also. Do you feel that the effects of Ivan will keep TD 1 (if it stabalizes) on a lower Lat? Just off the top of my head this looks like a Carolina cane.

Anyway, thanks for your expert opinion.
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Scorpion

#7 Postby Scorpion » Mon Sep 13, 2004 5:39 pm

*Sigh* another possible Florida storm.
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