Tropical Depression 11 Thoughts

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
MWatkins
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2574
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2002 7:51 pm
Location: SE Florida
Contact:
Contact MWatkins

Tropical Depression 11 Thoughts

#1 Postby MWatkins » Mon Sep 13, 2004 4:36 pm

It is very early in the game with this system...and if it does not fall apart in the next 24 hours or so...it has a good shot at becoming a hurricane ahead of the TPC forecast.

If Ivan maintains it's forecast track from the TPC...he could hurtle TD11 back in the general direction of Florida late in the forecast period as he flips over. This is not set in stone...the GFS wants to turn the TD north before reaching 69W. However...consider the fact the the models have been early with these types of curves...and the fact that the NOGAPS places this system very close to the Keys in 120 hours or so.

Keep in mind that until the track trend and development curves get established...these are some of the hardest forecasts to make and the track may jump around some during the next day or so.

So much for sleeping this week.

MW
0 likes   
Updating on the twitter now: http://www.twitter.com/@watkinstrack
Top
User avatar
ameriwx2003
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 980
Joined: Tue Jul 22, 2003 10:45 am

#2 Postby ameriwx2003 » Mon Sep 13, 2004 4:56 pm

The 12Z Euro also places TD 11 near the Keys in the 6 to 7 day range
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Stormtrack03
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 377
Age: 44
Joined: Fri Sep 03, 2004 9:06 pm
Location: Downingtown, PA

#3 Postby Stormtrack03 » Mon Sep 13, 2004 4:57 pm

This storm could be a future GOM storm.
0 likes   
Top
Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38266
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:
Contact Brent

#4 Postby Brent » Mon Sep 13, 2004 4:59 pm

Stormtrack03 wrote:This storm could be a future GOM storm.


Oh how freaking wonderful. :roll: :grr:
0 likes   
#neversummer
Top
User avatar
crazycajuncane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1097
Joined: Sun Aug 15, 2004 2:51 pm
Location: Lafayette, Louisiana
Contact:
Contact crazycajuncane

#5 Postby crazycajuncane » Mon Sep 13, 2004 5:35 pm

I just hope the activity completely stops as of October.

I hope we aren't still naming storms in December! :eek:
0 likes   
Top
CFLCaneWatcher
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 70
Joined: Mon Sep 06, 2004 9:12 am
Location: Orlando

#6 Postby CFLCaneWatcher » Mon Sep 13, 2004 5:38 pm

Thanks Mike.

I, for one, appreciate your updates and candor...as I'm sure the others do also. Do you feel that the effects of Ivan will keep TD 1 (if it stabalizes) on a lower Lat? Just off the top of my head this looks like a Carolina cane.

Anyway, thanks for your expert opinion.
0 likes   
Top
Scorpion

#7 Postby Scorpion » Mon Sep 13, 2004 5:39 pm

*Sigh* another possible Florida storm.
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google Adsense [Bot] and 110 guests