12:00 Models Jeanne=Moving 270 7kt

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 148500
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

12:00 Models Jeanne=Moving 270 7kt

#1 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 24, 2004 7:48 am

Code: Select all

  HURRICANE JEANNE     (AL112004) ON 20040924  1200 UTC

          ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS...   ...36 HRS...
          040924  1200   040925  0000   040925  1200   040926  0000

           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    26.1N  72.0W   26.6N  73.8W   27.1N  76.0W   27.6N  78.3W
  BAMM    26.1N  72.0W   26.8N  73.8W   27.4N  76.3W   28.0N  79.0W
  A98E    26.1N  72.0W   26.2N  73.5W   26.8N  75.3W   27.3N  77.3W
  LBAR    26.1N  72.0W   26.3N  73.5W   26.5N  75.3W   27.1N  77.1W
  SHIP        85KTS          87KTS          89KTS          92KTS
  DSHP        85KTS          87KTS          89KTS          92KTS

          ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS...   ..120 HRS...
          040926  1200   040927  1200   040928  1200   040929  1200

           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    28.3N  80.4W   30.1N  82.9W   33.3N  79.1W   38.9N  67.1W
  BAMM    28.3N  81.7W   28.2N  84.2W   28.0N  80.3W   27.9N  76.1W
  A98E    27.8N  79.5W   29.2N  82.5W   29.7N  79.9W   30.3N  68.7W
  LBAR    27.9N  79.2W   30.4N  82.2W   33.2N  81.4W   36.1N  76.4W
  SHIP        92KTS          82KTS          69KTS          52KTS
  DSHP        92KTS          43KTS          27KTS           0KTS

               ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
  LATCUR =  26.1N LONCUR =  72.0W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR =   7KT
  LATM12 =  26.0N LONM12 =  70.4W DIRM12 = 286DEG SPDM12 =   6KT
  LATM24 =  25.6N LONM24 =  69.5W
  WNDCUR =   85KT RMAXWD =   35NM WNDM12 =   90KT
  CENPRS =  969MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD =  175NM SDEPTH =   D
  RD34NE =  120NM RD34SE =  105NM RD34SW =  105NM RD34NW = 130NM
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
yoda
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7874
Joined: Tue Jan 13, 2004 3:51 pm
Location: Springfield VA (20 mins south of DC)
Contact:
Contact yoda

#2 Postby yoda » Fri Sep 24, 2004 7:49 am

92 kts = 105 mph....

no cat 3 even there... and that agrees with me forecasting that Jeanne will never become a CAT 3 at ANYTIME!
0 likes   
Top
Kiern
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 34
Joined: Thu Sep 02, 2004 8:33 am
Location: west palm beach, FL

#3 Postby Kiern » Fri Sep 24, 2004 7:52 am

yoda wrote:92 kts = 105 mph....

no cat 3 even there... and that agrees with me forecasting that Jeanne will never become a CAT 3 at ANYTIME!


I wish you were right.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
yoda
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7874
Joined: Tue Jan 13, 2004 3:51 pm
Location: Springfield VA (20 mins south of DC)
Contact:
Contact yoda

#4 Postby yoda » Fri Sep 24, 2004 7:52 am

Kiern wrote:
yoda wrote:92 kts = 105 mph....

no cat 3 even there... and that agrees with me forecasting that Jeanne will never become a CAT 3 at ANYTIME!


I wish you were right.


I believe I will be right... but we will see.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
feederband
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3423
Joined: Wed Oct 01, 2003 6:21 pm
Location: Lakeland Fl

#5 Postby feederband » Fri Sep 24, 2004 7:53 am

nothing will suprise this year
0 likes   
Top
caneman

#6 Postby caneman » Fri Sep 24, 2004 7:55 am

I'm not sure that you are right as I believe it is suppose to hit warmer waters by tonight. We'll no more by tonight.
0 likes   
Top
TPACane04

#7 Postby TPACane04 » Fri Sep 24, 2004 7:57 am

Yoda, when Jeanne "does" reach Cat 3 status, will you promise NOT to do any more forecasts/predictions for the rest of the season?? Your alleged prediction confidence is annoying at best.

let's see...good outflow, west moving storm under High, higher SST's in front of Jeanne...I would say odds are 75% that you are wrong...
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
yoda
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7874
Joined: Tue Jan 13, 2004 3:51 pm
Location: Springfield VA (20 mins south of DC)
Contact:
Contact yoda

#8 Postby yoda » Fri Sep 24, 2004 7:57 am

caneman wrote:I'm not sure that you are right as I believe it is suppose to hit warmer waters by tonight. We'll no more by tonight.


Yes... 84 degree waters... not that warm SSTs...
0 likes   
Top
caneman

#9 Postby caneman » Fri Sep 24, 2004 7:59 am

yoda wrote:
caneman wrote:I'm not sure that you are right as I believe it is suppose to hit warmer waters by tonight. We'll no more by tonight.


Yes... 84 degree waters... not that warm SSTs...


PLenty warm for Cat. 3. The true test to is will will shear affect the system prior to landlfall, if not, look out.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
yoda
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7874
Joined: Tue Jan 13, 2004 3:51 pm
Location: Springfield VA (20 mins south of DC)
Contact:
Contact yoda

#10 Postby yoda » Fri Sep 24, 2004 8:01 am

TPACane04 wrote:Yoda, when Jeanne "does" reach Cat 3 status, will you promise NOT to do any more forecasts/predictions for the rest of the season?? Your alleged prediction confidence is annoying at best.

let's see...good outflow, west moving storm under High, higher SST's in front of Jeanne...I would say odds are 75% that you are wrong...


Lets see... TCHP is low.. so that doesn't help. SSTs show water temps of below 84 degrees...another strike.. but an unkown factor still. Also... CSMISS shows shear that is 20 kts to Jeanne's SW.. so we don't know how that factors in... How is it annoying? This is the first forecast I have done... oh well.

See we will who is right.
0 likes   
Top
TPACane04

#11 Postby TPACane04 » Fri Sep 24, 2004 8:03 am

let me be clear...usage of the words NEVER and AT ANYTIME is annoying...and since this is your "first" forecast, perhaps you can use this as a lesson to avoid those terms in your future forecasting efforts...

those terms confuse the newbies on the board who jump at any info they see...whether that info is good, bad or indifferent.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
yoda
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7874
Joined: Tue Jan 13, 2004 3:51 pm
Location: Springfield VA (20 mins south of DC)
Contact:
Contact yoda

#12 Postby yoda » Fri Sep 24, 2004 8:06 am

TPACane04 wrote:let me be clear...usage of the words NEVER and AT ANYTIME is annoying...and since this is your "first" forecast, perhaps you can use this as a lesson to avoid those terms in your future forecasting efforts...

those terms confuse the newbies on the board who jump at any info they see...whether that info is good, bad or indifferent.


True. But when you have other "forecasters" saying that Jeanne could become a CAT 4 Hurricane if it goes over an eddy (when there is none) that is false info as well. I will change it next time. Thank you for your input.
0 likes   
Top
Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38266
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:
Contact Brent

#13 Postby Brent » Fri Sep 24, 2004 8:07 am

*cough*

Model run graphics...

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_11.gif
0 likes   
#neversummer
Top
User avatar
yoda
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7874
Joined: Tue Jan 13, 2004 3:51 pm
Location: Springfield VA (20 mins south of DC)
Contact:
Contact yoda

#14 Postby yoda » Fri Sep 24, 2004 8:08 am

Brent wrote:*cough*

Model run graphics...

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_11.gif


What is *cough* for?

That map shows me that the track is right on and will not change at 11 AM.
0 likes   
Top
TPACane04

#15 Postby TPACane04 » Fri Sep 24, 2004 8:09 am

you're welcome Yoda, have a nice weekend... :D
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
feederband
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3423
Joined: Wed Oct 01, 2003 6:21 pm
Location: Lakeland Fl

#16 Postby feederband » Fri Sep 24, 2004 8:10 am

which track is right on ?
0 likes   
Top
Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38266
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:
Contact Brent

#17 Postby Brent » Fri Sep 24, 2004 8:13 am

yoda wrote:
Brent wrote:*cough*

Model run graphics...

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_11.gif


What is *cough* for?

That map shows me that the track is right on and will not change at 11 AM.


I was saying cough because ya'll were getting into a debate over your wording in your forecast. I wanted to keep it on-topic. :wink:
0 likes   
#neversummer
Top
User avatar
yoda
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7874
Joined: Tue Jan 13, 2004 3:51 pm
Location: Springfield VA (20 mins south of DC)
Contact:
Contact yoda

#18 Postby yoda » Fri Sep 24, 2004 8:14 am

Brent wrote:
yoda wrote:
Brent wrote:*cough*

Model run graphics...

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_11.gif


What is *cough* for?

That map shows me that the track is right on and will not change at 11 AM.


I was saying cough because ya'll were getting into a debate over your wording in your forecast. I wanted to keep it on-topic. :wink:


Ah ok. :D
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Lowpressure
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2032
Age: 58
Joined: Sun Sep 14, 2003 9:17 am
Location: Charlotte, North Carolina

#19 Postby Lowpressure » Fri Sep 24, 2004 8:38 am

Yoda- my fellow Virginian. You do quite well on snow forecasting, but I have to agree- be careful with hurricane in this part of the Atlantic. 84 is plenty warm enough water for a cat 3. Once she moves away from deep welled water she has caused herself, this storm will intensify, how much is an unknown. But a cat 3 is certainly easily within reach- remember the pressure was 969 last report- that supports a three.
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 31 guests