12:00 Models Jeanne=Moving 270 7kt

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cycloneye
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12:00 Models Jeanne=Moving 270 7kt

#1 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 24, 2004 7:48 am

Code: Select all

  HURRICANE JEANNE     (AL112004) ON 20040924  1200 UTC

          ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS...   ...36 HRS...
          040924  1200   040925  0000   040925  1200   040926  0000

           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    26.1N  72.0W   26.6N  73.8W   27.1N  76.0W   27.6N  78.3W
  BAMM    26.1N  72.0W   26.8N  73.8W   27.4N  76.3W   28.0N  79.0W
  A98E    26.1N  72.0W   26.2N  73.5W   26.8N  75.3W   27.3N  77.3W
  LBAR    26.1N  72.0W   26.3N  73.5W   26.5N  75.3W   27.1N  77.1W
  SHIP        85KTS          87KTS          89KTS          92KTS
  DSHP        85KTS          87KTS          89KTS          92KTS

          ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS...   ..120 HRS...
          040926  1200   040927  1200   040928  1200   040929  1200

           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    28.3N  80.4W   30.1N  82.9W   33.3N  79.1W   38.9N  67.1W
  BAMM    28.3N  81.7W   28.2N  84.2W   28.0N  80.3W   27.9N  76.1W
  A98E    27.8N  79.5W   29.2N  82.5W   29.7N  79.9W   30.3N  68.7W
  LBAR    27.9N  79.2W   30.4N  82.2W   33.2N  81.4W   36.1N  76.4W
  SHIP        92KTS          82KTS          69KTS          52KTS
  DSHP        92KTS          43KTS          27KTS           0KTS

               ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
  LATCUR =  26.1N LONCUR =  72.0W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR =   7KT
  LATM12 =  26.0N LONM12 =  70.4W DIRM12 = 286DEG SPDM12 =   6KT
  LATM24 =  25.6N LONM24 =  69.5W
  WNDCUR =   85KT RMAXWD =   35NM WNDM12 =   90KT
  CENPRS =  969MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD =  175NM SDEPTH =   D
  RD34NE =  120NM RD34SE =  105NM RD34SW =  105NM RD34NW = 130NM
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#2 Postby yoda » Fri Sep 24, 2004 7:49 am

92 kts = 105 mph....

no cat 3 even there... and that agrees with me forecasting that Jeanne will never become a CAT 3 at ANYTIME!
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#3 Postby Kiern » Fri Sep 24, 2004 7:52 am

yoda wrote:92 kts = 105 mph....

no cat 3 even there... and that agrees with me forecasting that Jeanne will never become a CAT 3 at ANYTIME!


I wish you were right.
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#4 Postby yoda » Fri Sep 24, 2004 7:52 am

Kiern wrote:
yoda wrote:92 kts = 105 mph....

no cat 3 even there... and that agrees with me forecasting that Jeanne will never become a CAT 3 at ANYTIME!


I wish you were right.


I believe I will be right... but we will see.
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#5 Postby feederband » Fri Sep 24, 2004 7:53 am

nothing will suprise this year
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#6 Postby caneman » Fri Sep 24, 2004 7:55 am

I'm not sure that you are right as I believe it is suppose to hit warmer waters by tonight. We'll no more by tonight.
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#7 Postby TPACane04 » Fri Sep 24, 2004 7:57 am

Yoda, when Jeanne "does" reach Cat 3 status, will you promise NOT to do any more forecasts/predictions for the rest of the season?? Your alleged prediction confidence is annoying at best.

let's see...good outflow, west moving storm under High, higher SST's in front of Jeanne...I would say odds are 75% that you are wrong...
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#8 Postby yoda » Fri Sep 24, 2004 7:57 am

caneman wrote:I'm not sure that you are right as I believe it is suppose to hit warmer waters by tonight. We'll no more by tonight.


Yes... 84 degree waters... not that warm SSTs...
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#9 Postby caneman » Fri Sep 24, 2004 7:59 am

yoda wrote:
caneman wrote:I'm not sure that you are right as I believe it is suppose to hit warmer waters by tonight. We'll no more by tonight.


Yes... 84 degree waters... not that warm SSTs...


PLenty warm for Cat. 3. The true test to is will will shear affect the system prior to landlfall, if not, look out.
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#10 Postby yoda » Fri Sep 24, 2004 8:01 am

TPACane04 wrote:Yoda, when Jeanne "does" reach Cat 3 status, will you promise NOT to do any more forecasts/predictions for the rest of the season?? Your alleged prediction confidence is annoying at best.

let's see...good outflow, west moving storm under High, higher SST's in front of Jeanne...I would say odds are 75% that you are wrong...


Lets see... TCHP is low.. so that doesn't help. SSTs show water temps of below 84 degrees...another strike.. but an unkown factor still. Also... CSMISS shows shear that is 20 kts to Jeanne's SW.. so we don't know how that factors in... How is it annoying? This is the first forecast I have done... oh well.

See we will who is right.
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#11 Postby TPACane04 » Fri Sep 24, 2004 8:03 am

let me be clear...usage of the words NEVER and AT ANYTIME is annoying...and since this is your "first" forecast, perhaps you can use this as a lesson to avoid those terms in your future forecasting efforts...

those terms confuse the newbies on the board who jump at any info they see...whether that info is good, bad or indifferent.
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#12 Postby yoda » Fri Sep 24, 2004 8:06 am

TPACane04 wrote:let me be clear...usage of the words NEVER and AT ANYTIME is annoying...and since this is your "first" forecast, perhaps you can use this as a lesson to avoid those terms in your future forecasting efforts...

those terms confuse the newbies on the board who jump at any info they see...whether that info is good, bad or indifferent.


True. But when you have other "forecasters" saying that Jeanne could become a CAT 4 Hurricane if it goes over an eddy (when there is none) that is false info as well. I will change it next time. Thank you for your input.
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#13 Postby Brent » Fri Sep 24, 2004 8:07 am

*cough*

Model run graphics...

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_11.gif
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#14 Postby yoda » Fri Sep 24, 2004 8:08 am

Brent wrote:*cough*

Model run graphics...

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_11.gif


What is *cough* for?

That map shows me that the track is right on and will not change at 11 AM.
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#15 Postby TPACane04 » Fri Sep 24, 2004 8:09 am

you're welcome Yoda, have a nice weekend... :D
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#16 Postby feederband » Fri Sep 24, 2004 8:10 am

which track is right on ?
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#17 Postby Brent » Fri Sep 24, 2004 8:13 am

yoda wrote:
Brent wrote:*cough*

Model run graphics...

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_11.gif


What is *cough* for?

That map shows me that the track is right on and will not change at 11 AM.


I was saying cough because ya'll were getting into a debate over your wording in your forecast. I wanted to keep it on-topic. :wink:
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#18 Postby yoda » Fri Sep 24, 2004 8:14 am

Brent wrote:
yoda wrote:
Brent wrote:*cough*

Model run graphics...

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_11.gif


What is *cough* for?

That map shows me that the track is right on and will not change at 11 AM.


I was saying cough because ya'll were getting into a debate over your wording in your forecast. I wanted to keep it on-topic. :wink:


Ah ok. :D
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#19 Postby Lowpressure » Fri Sep 24, 2004 8:38 am

Yoda- my fellow Virginian. You do quite well on snow forecasting, but I have to agree- be careful with hurricane in this part of the Atlantic. 84 is plenty warm enough water for a cat 3. Once she moves away from deep welled water she has caused herself, this storm will intensify, how much is an unknown. But a cat 3 is certainly easily within reach- remember the pressure was 969 last report- that supports a three.
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