Tom Terry WFTV says ...

[tronbunny]

"forget the GFDL"

"We're gonna keep an eye on the UKMET from now on.
and the BAMD did well only in short term"

[ColdFront77]

I am sure Tom Terry believes in looking at each and every forecast model for guidance, including those that we can't access online.

[tronbunny]

I'm sure he has some access (paid) to data that we can't get.
He says UKMET was close, but too far east, and that was the best performing model on Jeanne.
He will no longer count on the GFDL because (paraphrase) "they need to re-think it's calibration bias or something"

[ColdFront77]

Yes, he (all meteorologists, of course do [including amatuers at local television stations]). Tom
has mentioned that there are about 20 forecast models. We only have access to 8 or so of them.

[JenyEliza]

We need Tom Terry in ATLANTA. We don't seem to have anyone up here near as good as he is.

My parents are in Volusia County. I followed Tom's Frances and Jeanne coverage online--start to finish both times. I like his style.

If ever Orlando is tired of Tom...send him on up here to ATL. Our Mets could use a mentor like Tom.

[tronbunny]

funny JenyEliza,
Tom has a new cohort...
I think his name is Arch Kennedy and he's from Atlanta (wsbtv)!

[JenyEliza]

funny JenyEliza,
Tom has a new cohort...
I think his name is Arch Kennedy and he's from Atlanta (wsbtv)!

Yep. Arch Kennedy, I remember him (he's pretty good--but never had a chance to shine in ATL). Kind of hard to do that in Glen Burns and Karen Minton's shadows. I bet he's looking forward to being away from Karen Minton (WSBTV). She really gets on my last nerve.

I think WFTV and WSBTV are owned by the same company. Could be how they pinched Arch from a major market.

Still....the offer stands. Anytime ya'll are ready to send Tom packing...send him to US.

[tronbunny]

I beleive they are both owned/operated by Cox Broadcasting.

[jlauderdal]

funny JenyEliza,
Tom has a new cohort...
I think his name is Arch Kennedy and he's from Atlanta (wsbtv)!

Arch kennedy was recently with TWC i think

[ColdFront77]

Yes, Arch was recently with TWC.

[ColdFront77]

I beleive they are both owned/operated by Cox Broadcasting.

That right, WFTV-TV 9, Orlando and WSB-TV 2, Atlanta are two out of nine Cox owned television stations.

[rbaker]

actually thought the nogaps did pretty well with Jeanne. The GFS and GFDL have been lousy this year, with the strenght of the ridge on the last several storms.

[Lindaloo]

funny JenyEliza,
Tom has a new cohort...
I think his name is Arch Kennedy and he's from Atlanta (wsbtv)!

He used to be an OCM for the weather channel too.(Arch Kennedy). I was wondering where he went.

[Derecho]

I am sure Tom Terry believes in looking at each and every forecast model for guidance, including those that we can't access online.

There's literally only ONE model that cannot be accessed online; the FSU superensemble. And I doubt he has access to that one himself.

[Lindaloo]

Well, who has access to the FSU if not a meteorologist?

[Derek Ortt]

paid access isnt even needed.

I have access to nearly every forecast model, yet there is no paid access. You just need atcf access is all (which I'm almost certain that he would have)

[Derecho]

actually thought the nogaps did pretty well with Jeanne. The GFS and GFDL have been lousy this year, with the strenght of the ridge on the last several storms.

Mythology. At 120 hours the GFS was the top global model overall for both Frances and Ivan, for example.

There's a great deal of knee-jerk unthinking GFS bashing that often obscures the reality when objective track error numbers are examined.

[Derek Ortt]

please show me the verification for the GFS being the best global model for Ivan.

GFS had Ivan missing Florida to the east. It was farther to the right than myself and Mussolini combined.


If GFS was the best model, it was because the other models were off with track, not heading

[Lindaloo]

paid access isnt even needed.

I have access to nearly every forecast model, yet there is no paid access. You just need atcf access is all (which I'm almost certain that he would have)

Thanks Derek.

[Derecho]

please show me the verification for the GFS being the best global model for Ivan.

GFS had Ivan missing Florida to the east. It was farther to the right than myself and Mussolini combined.


If GFS was the best model, it was because the other models were off with track, not heading

There was a lot of Ivan track prior to when it entered the GOM. The GFS ended up with the lowest OVERALL track error because for the first 2/3rds of the storm or so it was much further south than the other globals, and thus ended up with a lower 120 hour track error (this is calculated with Stormtrakker) than the NOGAPS, CMC, UKMET, for the entire storm.

Because it's run every 6 hours (well, NOGAPS is too, but few people look at the 6Z and 18Z runs) psychologically, error in the GFS is overemphasized relative to the other globals.

It's certainly not perfect, and it unfortunately seems to be prone to its largest error at about 2-3 days from US landfall (the critical time). But it's not the egregiously worthless model it's portrayed to be. The 4 runs a day make it twice as prone to screwy runs, and when it does have a bad track, the 4 times a day runs make it seem "twice" as wrong.