NHC mentions...

Anonymous · #1 Postby **Anonymous** » Thu Sep 30, 2004 10:40 am

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS HAVE INCREASED IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA SINCE YESTERDAY. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ONCE THE SYSTEM REACHES THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE ARE CENTERED ABOUT 525 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH THE ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED SINCE YESTERDAY...UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.

cinlfla · #2 Postby **cinlfla** » Thu Sep 30, 2004 10:42 am

~Floydbuster wrote:CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS HAVE INCREASED IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA SINCE YESTERDAY. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ONCE THE SYSTEM REACHES THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE ARE CENTERED ABOUT 525 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH THE ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED SINCE YESTERDAY...UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.

Very interesting I'll have to watch it.

x-y-no · #3 Postby **x-y-no** » Thu Sep 30, 2004 10:45 am

Interesting - they appear to see more potential in the first one than in the second one ...

They're the pros, and I'm just an amateur, but it seems like it would be the other way around to me ... unless the upper low moves away fast enough from the first wave to switch from inhibiting to ventilating.

I still thing the one to watch is the one approaching the windward islands - but not until it gets into the central caribbean.

Anonymous · #4 Postby **Anonymous** » Thu Sep 30, 2004 10:49 am

Well, there is shear near the islands.

#5 Postby **MWatkins** » Thu Sep 30, 2004 10:49 am

Yep...the models continue to hint at some sort of development in the middle period (3 to 5 days).

They are all remarkably consistent the following solution. The wave undergos some weak development (or in the CMC's case good, solid development)...as it moves NW for a while. As the trough heading into the eastern US lifts out...ridging builds back in and shoves the system into the Yucatan...then southwestward over into the BOC or even south of there by the end of the fay 6/7 time period.

MW

Josephine96 · #6 Postby **Josephine96** » Thu Sep 30, 2004 10:49 am

Here we go again

GbrNole · #7 Postby **GbrNole** » Thu Sep 30, 2004 10:54 am

if it's in the yucatan and heading west in some fashion then that's all i need to hear!

Anonymous · #8 Postby **Anonymous** » Thu Sep 30, 2004 10:58 am

MWatkins wrote:Yep...the models continue to hint at some sort of development in the middle period (3 to 5 days).

They are all remarkably consistent the following solution. The wave undergos some weak development (or in the CMC's case good, solid development)...as it moves NW for a while. As the trough heading into the eastern US lifts out...ridging builds back in and shoves the system into the Yucatan...then southwestward over into the BOC or even south of there by the end of the fay 6/7 time period.

MW

That's great Mike! Right over this:

Sanibel · #9 Postby **Sanibel** » Thu Sep 30, 2004 11:02 am

I find a visual key to possible development to be the big curved upper side to the wave. You'll find that systems with this sort of shape tend to have a better chance at development...

Josephine96 · #10 Postby **Josephine96** » Thu Sep 30, 2004 11:07 am

right there in the BOC huh.. is that were they think it'll develop

Website · #11 Postby **Brent** » Thu Sep 30, 2004 11:24 am

Wonderful. :roll:

JenyEliza · #12 Postby **JenyEliza** » Thu Sep 30, 2004 12:06 pm

Brent wrote:Wonderful.

What he said. We always seem to get Alabama's seconds....

:roll:

#13 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Thu Sep 30, 2004 12:42 pm

If what Mike said is true, then at least we in FL dont have to worry about it. But ofcoarse it is so premature to say that. Give it another day or two to organize and then we'll talk.

<RICKY>

#14 Postby **vbhoutex** » Thu Sep 30, 2004 12:58 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:If what Mike said is true, then at least we in FL dont have to worry about it. But ofcoarse it is so premature to say that. Give it another day or two to organize and then we'll talk.

<RICKY>

Not so quick Ricky. Mind you I am not predicting anything, but this is the time of year FL really needs to watch what is coming in from the SW or West since fronts and their associated troughs like the one expected through Houston on Saturday often pick up these developing systems and move then N, then NE.

catzmeow · #15 Postby **catzmeow** » Thu Sep 30, 2004 1:34 pm

http://www.weather.com/maps/news/atlstorm13/caribbeansatellite_large_animated.html

Guest · #16 Postby **Guest** » Thu Sep 30, 2004 1:50 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:If what Mike said is true, then at least we in FL dont have to worry about it. But ofcoarse it is so premature to say that. Give it another day or two to organize and then we'll talk.

<RICKY>

& even if this particular system (if it develops) does not affect Fla there will still be 2 months remaining in the season.

KatDaddy · #17 Postby **KatDaddy** » Thu Sep 30, 2004 1:51 pm

October may be closing in which usually ends any TX threat but that pattern for next week opens the door for anything in the S GOM and BOC to move N around a massive high pressure system across a very large area of the US. Regardless of any significant development AFDs are indicating tidal problems next week along the TX Coast.

#18 Postby **Hurricanehink** » Thu Sep 30, 2004 3:07 pm

This is the classic key to October storms. Hopefully it won't get too strong, though I wouldn't mind tracking a home-grown storm.

Josephine96 · #19 Postby **Josephine96** » Thu Sep 30, 2004 3:09 pm

How big of an October storm will we have

NHC mentions...

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Re: NHC mentions...

Check out the curving on this system...

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