CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS HAVE INCREASED IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA SINCE YESTERDAY. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ONCE THE SYSTEM REACHES THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE ARE CENTERED ABOUT 525 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH THE ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED SINCE YESTERDAY...UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.
NHC mentions...
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cinlfla
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Re: NHC mentions...
~Floydbuster wrote:CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS HAVE INCREASED IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA SINCE YESTERDAY. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ONCE THE SYSTEM REACHES THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE ARE CENTERED ABOUT 525 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH THE ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED SINCE YESTERDAY...UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.
Very interesting I'll have to watch it.
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x-y-no
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Interesting - they appear to see more potential in the first one than in the second one ...
They're the pros, and I'm just an amateur, but it seems like it would be the other way around to me ... unless the upper low moves away fast enough from the first wave to switch from inhibiting to ventilating.
I still thing the one to watch is the one approaching the windward islands - but not until it gets into the central caribbean.
They're the pros, and I'm just an amateur, but it seems like it would be the other way around to me ... unless the upper low moves away fast enough from the first wave to switch from inhibiting to ventilating.
I still thing the one to watch is the one approaching the windward islands - but not until it gets into the central caribbean.
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Yep...the models continue to hint at some sort of development in the middle period (3 to 5 days).
They are all remarkably consistent the following solution. The wave undergos some weak development (or in the CMC's case good, solid development)...as it moves NW for a while. As the trough heading into the eastern US lifts out...ridging builds back in and shoves the system into the Yucatan...then southwestward over into the BOC or even south of there by the end of the fay 6/7 time period.
MW
They are all remarkably consistent the following solution. The wave undergos some weak development (or in the CMC's case good, solid development)...as it moves NW for a while. As the trough heading into the eastern US lifts out...ridging builds back in and shoves the system into the Yucatan...then southwestward over into the BOC or even south of there by the end of the fay 6/7 time period.
MW
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Anonymous
MWatkins wrote:Yep...the models continue to hint at some sort of development in the middle period (3 to 5 days).
They are all remarkably consistent the following solution. The wave undergos some weak development (or in the CMC's case good, solid development)...as it moves NW for a while. As the trough heading into the eastern US lifts out...ridging builds back in and shoves the system into the Yucatan...then southwestward over into the BOC or even south of there by the end of the fay 6/7 time period.
MW
That's great Mike! Right over this:
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WeatherEmperor
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vbhoutex
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WeatherEmperor wrote:If what Mike said is true, then at least we in FL dont have to worry about it. But ofcoarse it is so premature to say that. Give it another day or two to organize and then we'll talk.
<RICKY>
Not so quick Ricky. Mind you I am not predicting anything, but this is the time of year FL really needs to watch what is coming in from the SW or West since fronts and their associated troughs like the one expected through Houston on Saturday often pick up these developing systems and move then N, then NE.
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Skywarn, C.E.R.T.
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Guest
WeatherEmperor wrote:If what Mike said is true, then at least we in FL dont have to worry about it. But ofcoarse it is so premature to say that. Give it another day or two to organize and then we'll talk.
<RICKY>
& even if this particular system (if it develops) does not affect Fla there will still be 2 months remaining in the season.
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October may be closing in which usually ends any TX threat but that pattern for next week opens the door for anything in the S GOM and BOC to move N around a massive high pressure system across a very large area of the US. Regardless of any significant development AFDs are indicating tidal problems next week along the TX Coast.
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Hurricanehink
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