West Caribbean Re-Fire

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10385
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

West Caribbean Re-Fire

#1 Postby Sanibel » Sat Oct 02, 2004 11:06 am

As I speculated last night the west Caribbean wave has consolidated under favorable flaring conditions. You could see the first burst at the eclipse.

The reason I made a new post on this is because the area has done something not adequately described in other posts. If you noticed, 36 hours ago the entire west Atlantic basin suddenly shut-down as far as deep flaring of convection. The Windwards wave lost most of its, and the west Caribbean wave went dry as well. This is a phenomenon I've seen before. It is like the whole theater flashes with negativity. Proof of this is that both the Caribbean and Windwards waves have rebounded with more condensed convection. The Caribbean one more south towards the original flaring of several days ago. They were there the whole time, just badly affected by negativity...


I'd be watching both, especially the one by Honduras...
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
TS Zack
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 925
Joined: Thu Jul 01, 2004 6:23 pm
Location: Louisiana
Contact:
Contact TS Zack

Re: West Caribbean Re-Fire

#2 Postby TS Zack » Sat Oct 02, 2004 11:09 am

I think that was mainly from the convection losing daytime heating.
0 likes   
Top
Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10385
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

#3 Postby Sanibel » Sat Oct 02, 2004 11:12 am

To try to best describe what is going on I would suggest the wave was struggling along under hostile synoptics. It was unable to improve. Now the disruptive environment is easing allowing this lingering wave to re-organize. I'm still not certain on this one's chances, but this much longevity is probably a sign of better chances for formation. One thing is for sure, any consolidated persistence in this climatology is automatically worth watching...
0 likes   
Top
Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10385
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

#4 Postby Sanibel » Sat Oct 02, 2004 11:14 am

I think that was mainly from the convection losing daytime heating.




Possibly, but the period was longer than one diurnal cycle AND the entire basin was affected. The only thing with any decent convection was Lisa...
0 likes   
Top
Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10385
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

#5 Postby Sanibel » Sat Oct 02, 2004 12:16 pm

After running the visible loop you can see the situation better. Cycloneye could be right about the drift into Central America.

There appears to be a small hint of surface rotation just NE of Costa Rica. This unformed center has curvature from the rest of the convection. The only way it could develop is to lift straight north, however the Caribbean flow looks to be pretty east-west right now.

A second axis could grab further NE into the convection, but doesn't look likely right now.

Just above Cayman is yesterday's outbreak vortex in de-convected form. I think it is more mid than surface level and shouldn't become the center - but you never know if it re-fires itself...

Nothing to do but watch...
0 likes   
Top
Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10385
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

#6 Postby Sanibel » Sat Oct 02, 2004 4:22 pm

5PM


Still there and deep flaring. If there is a surface center associated with this that drifts over Central America then the flare will dissipate.


One thing is for sure, if you are looking for West Caribbean development this is what you should be looking for...
0 likes   
Top
BillC
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 33
Joined: Thu Sep 09, 2004 7:36 pm
Location: Winter Springs, FL

#7 Postby BillC » Sat Oct 02, 2004 4:53 pm

Sanibel,

Good observations, IMO. I'm seeing rotation and a northward drift ... I sure wouldn't discount the possibility of development in the next day or two.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
weatherwindow
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 904
Joined: Mon Sep 20, 2004 9:48 am
Location: key west/ft lauderdale

#8 Postby weatherwindow » Sat Oct 02, 2004 6:33 pm

7:32 PM....convection appears more symmetrical...has refocussed northeast of the honduran/nicaraguan border....no rotation noted...stay tuned...
0 likes   
Top
Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10385
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

#9 Postby Sanibel » Sat Oct 02, 2004 7:49 pm

That small round flare in the center of the symmetry on the coast of southern Nicaragua is probably the disturbance's center going inland and over to EPAC. The rest of the wave should now dissipate...
0 likes   
Top
Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10385
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

#10 Postby Sanibel » Sat Oct 02, 2004 11:22 pm

We'll see what is left of that weak wave material tomorrow...
0 likes   
Top
BillC
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 33
Joined: Thu Sep 09, 2004 7:36 pm
Location: Winter Springs, FL

#11 Postby BillC » Sat Oct 02, 2004 11:29 pm

Sanibel ... your earlier post may be right, BUT I still see rotation at about
18 N and 82 W on the satellite loop below. The convection around that rotation has quieted down, but I won't be surprised if it flares up again when the sun rises this morning.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: cajungal and 59 guests