Rip to 92L

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cycloneye
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Rip to 92L

#1 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 15, 2005 4:28 pm

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

It didn't had a real chance as ideal conditions were not there although convection persisted.
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Thunder44
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Re: Rip to 92L

#2 Postby Thunder44 » Wed Jun 15, 2005 4:47 pm

cycloneye wrote:http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

It didn't had a real chance as ideal conditions were not there although convection persisted.


I believe it had a better chance of developing the what's in the BOC now. Also Arlene developed in less then ideal conditions.
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Re: Rip to 92L

#3 Postby senorpepr » Wed Jun 15, 2005 4:52 pm

Thunder44 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

It didn't had a real chance as ideal conditions were not there although convection persisted.


I believe it had a better chance of developing the what's in the BOC now. Also Arlene developed in less then ideal conditions.


I will agree partically with you comment. It had a better chance when it was a few hundred miles SSE of Kingston. However, it had a very limited window for opportunity. With the upper-level conditions being what they were, it would have had a hard time trying to becoming something. In any event, it wasn't far likely for 92L to develop all along. It was appearent that conditions aloft wouldn't improve enough for development before it become rather close to Jamaica and Cuba.
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Derek Ortt

#4 Postby Derek Ortt » Wed Jun 15, 2005 5:47 pm

dont write it off yet.

models, including one that I ran today, show some chance at development AFTER it moves through the Bahamas (roughly 36 hours from now)
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#5 Postby senorpepr » Wed Jun 15, 2005 5:54 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:dont write it off yet.

models, including one that I ran today, show some chance at development AFTER it moves through the Bahamas (roughly 36 hours from now)


Right. I should have noted that in my reply as well. Once 92L moves through the Bahamas, that window of development reopens. Although I don't believe development will be a given...
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#6 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Wed Jun 15, 2005 5:57 pm

Nothing is a given in the tropics. Its a watch an or see.
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