Large Flareup of Convection in SW Caribbean

[wxmann_91]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-ir4-loop.html

I don't see a topic on this yet, but I do believe that if this area stays over water, it can develop.

Note the upper-level anticyclone over it:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.html

And the decreasing shear values around it:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.html

However, it is a battle between land and water. The steering currents are fairly weak (as would be expected in the Caribbean this time of year), but they are westerly. For this thing to develop it has to move north.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.html

Any comments? I am not sure if this was the same wave that was 92L, and this doesn't have much chance unless it stalls over water, but it's worth a mention.

[Sanibel]

We've had nothing but cool air up here after Wilma. A stationary trough-like feature has linged over the Caribbean/West Atlantic since Wilma as well. We have been on the cool/dry side for over a week.

Our SST's here are down to 73*.


That should be it for 2005...

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Hopefully we won't see anything more in 2005. But I say there may
be a weak/hybrid tropical storm possible out of this over the next 5
days....as for its path...too early to tell....

[Ivanhater]

well the canadian takes this"energy" and moves it north into the gulf

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Shear is gradually reducing over this area, and SSTs are plenty warm
over the NW Caribbean. I say development is possible to a strong
tropical storm, possibly a hurricane over the NW Caribbean. But
if this system is to enter the GOM, cooler SSTs in the GOM would
weaken it slightly. So a weak hurricane in the NW Caribbean would
lend itself to a strong TS in the Southern GOM. But it is TOO early
to tell if this system is going to reach the GOM or if it will end up
doing any combination of a number of other things. But it ought
to be monitored IMHO.

[sponger]

Some of those shear values in the Atlantic are incredible. 100 mph via the JetStream. I would love to see what that could do to a cat 5!

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Weather Outlook

Statement as of 11:30 am EST on November 3, 2005

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
An area of cloudiness and showers is located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and adjacent portions of Honduras and Nicaragua. Development...if any...should be slow to occur due to proximity to land.

Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through Friday.

Forecaster Beven

At least the NHC mentions it!

[DESTRUCTION5]

Tropical Weather Outlook

Statement as of 11:30 am EST on November 3, 2005

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
An area of cloudiness and showers is located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and adjacent portions of Honduras and Nicaragua. Development...if any...should be slow to occur due to proximity to land.

Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through Friday.

Forecaster Beven

At least the NHC mentions it!

This is either bordm for them or Interesting...

[boca]

This area could just be a frontal wave moving up the front stuck down there.

[HURAKAN]

Convection continues to flare up all around the Western Caribbean and the Southern Caribbean. If this continues to happen over the next few days we may see a weak low pressure develop in the area. I'm not calling for development in the near future, but a weak low pressure area is possible.

[boca]

I hope if somethings gets going it will move NE away from Florida.

[wxmann_91]

Area near Honduras has waned, but a new flareup has appeared east of Nicaragua. Overall, this suggests that much of the western Caribbean is still quite unstable and unsettled, and shear is low. However, the squeeze play is still on; there is little space between the high shear to the north and land to the south.

Forecasted shear for the next three days: http://www.wunderground.com/data/640x480/atlm_shear.gif

[tampaflwx]

those look like some pretty cold cloud tops east of nicaragua..

that would be pretty strange as well to have a second storm so soon to develop in that region.......

[Praxus]

Floater 1 is on it.

[fuzzyblow]

More convection tonight...
Maybe a low soon

[TheEuropean]

This has to be watched.

[wxmann_91]

I'll change the thread title tomorrow morning should trends continue. Anticyclone is moving southeastward toward the area east of Nicaragua and cloud tops are cold.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAVE
DIMINISHED. AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS IS
LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ADJACENT LAND
AREAS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

10:30 PM TWO.

[Brent]

Sure looks unsettled.

[Rainband]

Sure looks unsettled.

I agree

[Cookiely]

The convection in that area is certainly persistent.