Large Flareup of Convection in SW Caribbean
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- wxmann_91
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Large Flareup of Convection in SW Caribbean
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-ir4-loop.html
I don't see a topic on this yet, but I do believe that if this area stays over water, it can develop.
Note the upper-level anticyclone over it:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.html
And the decreasing shear values around it:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.html
However, it is a battle between land and water. The steering currents are fairly weak (as would be expected in the Caribbean this time of year), but they are westerly. For this thing to develop it has to move north.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.html
Any comments? I am not sure if this was the same wave that was 92L, and this doesn't have much chance unless it stalls over water, but it's worth a mention.
I don't see a topic on this yet, but I do believe that if this area stays over water, it can develop.
Note the upper-level anticyclone over it:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.html
And the decreasing shear values around it:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.html
However, it is a battle between land and water. The steering currents are fairly weak (as would be expected in the Caribbean this time of year), but they are westerly. For this thing to develop it has to move north.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.html
Any comments? I am not sure if this was the same wave that was 92L, and this doesn't have much chance unless it stalls over water, but it's worth a mention.
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- Tampa Bay Hurricane
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Hopefully we won't see anything more in 2005. But I say there may
be a weak/hybrid tropical storm possible out of this over the next 5
days....as for its path...too early to tell....
Hopefully we won't see anything more in 2005. But I say there may
be a weak/hybrid tropical storm possible out of this over the next 5
days....as for its path...too early to tell....
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- Tampa Bay Hurricane
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Shear is gradually reducing over this area, and SSTs are plenty warm
over the NW Caribbean. I say development is possible to a strong
tropical storm, possibly a hurricane over the NW Caribbean. But
if this system is to enter the GOM, cooler SSTs in the GOM would
weaken it slightly. So a weak hurricane in the NW Caribbean would
lend itself to a strong TS in the Southern GOM. But it is TOO early
to tell if this system is going to reach the GOM or if it will end up
doing any combination of a number of other things. But it ought
to be monitored IMHO.
Shear is gradually reducing over this area, and SSTs are plenty warm
over the NW Caribbean. I say development is possible to a strong
tropical storm, possibly a hurricane over the NW Caribbean. But
if this system is to enter the GOM, cooler SSTs in the GOM would
weaken it slightly. So a weak hurricane in the NW Caribbean would
lend itself to a strong TS in the Southern GOM. But it is TOO early
to tell if this system is going to reach the GOM or if it will end up
doing any combination of a number of other things. But it ought
to be monitored IMHO.
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- HURAKAN
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Tropical Weather Outlook
Statement as of 11:30 am EST on November 3, 2005
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
An area of cloudiness and showers is located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and adjacent portions of Honduras and Nicaragua. Development...if any...should be slow to occur due to proximity to land.
Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through Friday.
Forecaster Beven
At least the NHC mentions it!
Statement as of 11:30 am EST on November 3, 2005
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
An area of cloudiness and showers is located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and adjacent portions of Honduras and Nicaragua. Development...if any...should be slow to occur due to proximity to land.
Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through Friday.
Forecaster Beven
At least the NHC mentions it!
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- DESTRUCTION5
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HURAKAN wrote:Tropical Weather Outlook
Statement as of 11:30 am EST on November 3, 2005
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
An area of cloudiness and showers is located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and adjacent portions of Honduras and Nicaragua. Development...if any...should be slow to occur due to proximity to land.
Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through Friday.
Forecaster Beven
At least the NHC mentions it!
This is either bordm for them or Interesting...
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- wxmann_91
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Area near Honduras has waned, but a new flareup has appeared east of Nicaragua. Overall, this suggests that much of the western Caribbean is still quite unstable and unsettled, and shear is low. However, the squeeze play is still on; there is little space between the high shear to the north and land to the south.
Forecasted shear for the next three days: http://www.wunderground.com/data/640x480/atlm_shear.gif
Forecasted shear for the next three days: http://www.wunderground.com/data/640x480/atlm_shear.gif
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- TheEuropean
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- wxmann_91
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I'll change the thread title tomorrow morning should trends continue. Anticyclone is moving southeastward toward the area east of Nicaragua and cloud tops are cold.
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAVE
DIMINISHED. AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS IS
LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ADJACENT LAND
AREAS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR.
10:30 PM TWO.
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAVE
DIMINISHED. AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS IS
LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ADJACENT LAND
AREAS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR.
10:30 PM TWO.
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