Model takes Claudette into Florida but will others follow?

[cycloneye]

http://www.wright-weather.com/data/wxp/ ... udette.gif

This is an update of the models and shows the start of a split on them.The BAMD model takes a sharp turn to Florida but the others are again at the same track as the last run so rainband and all floridians hummmm. :o .

[wrkh99]

it's not just the BAMD

[Steve H.]

What others then? The LBAR hooks it, but nothing convincing. However, the ULL may tug this a bit north of the projected NHC, which may make it a new ballgame. Its also disturbing the western side of the storm So will we see a little weakening?? Cheers!!

[Stormsfury]

The LBAR is an M.O. -- watch to see what the other models do in the next couple of runs ... to see if a trend starts or the LBAR jumps back towards the consensus ... then will find if the LBAR is a Model Outlier or the Model Onto Something ...

However, the 12z global model runs on the Experimental Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields site are obsolete since they were initialized before Claudette was "officially" born but the consensus of those models were a Yucatan hit and re-intensification in the BOC ...

SF

[Rainband]

http://www.wright-weather.com/data/wxp/gfdl/tracks/Composite_atlantic_tracks_claudette.gif

This is an update of the models and shows the start of a split on them.The BAMD model takes a sharp turn to Florida but the others are again at the same track as the last run so rainband and all floridians hummmm. :o .

HMM is right :o

[Toni - 574]

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Steve wrote:
What others then? The LBAR hooks it, but nothing convincing. However, the ULL may tug this a bit north of the projected NHC, which may make it a new ballgame. Its also disturbing the western side of the storm So will we see a little weakening?? Cheers!!


Yes Steve, the ULL is impacting Claudette a bit now and will most likely cause some weakening,but not enough that she cannot recover. In fact I agree with others that she will be a hurricane and could end up being a major storm. Not sure if I have an opinion on what direction she will head after noseing into the gulf,(imagine that LOL) I will stay safe and say that all GOMERS need to watch. Claudette has just begun.

[Toni - 574]

http://www.wright-weather.com/data/wxp/gfdl/tracks/Composite_atlantic_tracks_claudette.gif

This is an update of the models and shows the start of a split on them.The BAMD model takes a sharp turn to Florida but the others are again at the same track as the last run so rainband and all floridians hummmm. :o .

HMM is right :o

I'll second that HMM... Don't know what to say, other than we'll see. Everyone needs to watch this one. You know what they say about those gal's that doesn't have a closed off center.....Hmmmm! LOL

[crazy4disney]

It's going to be a loooooong weekend.....

-gina-

[PTrackerLA]

You're right about that, need to get the sleep in now!

[wxman57]

That BAMD track to Florida was a one-time track. I wouldn't put my money on Florida as the lower to mid level ridge is east of Florida, with south winds extending west through the peninsula in the lower to mid levels. That sort of flow wouldn't favor an easterly motion across the eastern Gulf.

I say again, I just have a gut feeling about LA/MS on this one. The ridge breaks down north of Claudette at 72 hours. This could allow that trof dipping south to the Gulf coast to nudge it northward toward LA/MS.

Now, if Claudette stalls far enough south that it isn't picked up, then TX/MX would be more likely (more likely TX than MX). Right now, Florida would be my last pick for landfall for Claudette (the Florida Peninsula, I mean).

[mitchell]

I heard the statement made that Claudette was the first tropical cyclone to form in the Central Carribean in July in the last 117 years. I want to challenge this a bit:

Didn't the tropical cyclone actually form east of the windwards and get UPGRADED inthe central Caribbean? I mean this storm had cyclonic circulation when it passed the islands - it just wasn't named.

My point is that if being upgraded to TS status is the "record" then I would argue that for the forst half of the past 117 years, the data is pretty much worthless and not robust enough for record keeping. The tropical depression (development) data only goes back to 1949! So there is no official coordinate for when the system made the transition from TD to TS.

[wx247]

Claudette is the first tropical cyclone to form in the Central Carib. because that where it was classified by the NHC. When it was east of the islands they could not find a closed low, so while it looked impressive the Hurricane Hunters could not find any information to support it being anything other than an open wave.

Who is to say exactly when and/or where this actually became a tropical depression/storm and not a wave? Just on this board there would be a variance of opinion, therefore we must use the judgment of the official voice for tropical systems the NHC and if they say it is a TS in the C. Carib, then it is so.

[mitchell]

OK, I can live with that. But with NOAA as the arbiter of TS development no way I'm buying the 117 year period of record. NOAA didn't compile information on the transition of a system from TD to TS until 1951.

Prior to that, the data points on the storm tracks are simply best positions of TS. It is clear from the intro to the report that lacking remote sensing such as sat and radar, there would have been no way to know when or where a TS formed - only when and where it was first encountered by man.

I realize its nitpicking but to claim a 117 year period of record when the data suggests more like a 50 year period of record is a pretty significant distortion.