Model takes Claudette into Florida but will others follow?

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145305
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Model takes Claudette into Florida but will others follow?

#1 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 08, 2003 7:45 pm

http://www.wright-weather.com/data/wxp/ ... udette.gif

This is an update of the models and shows the start of a split on them.The BAMD model takes a sharp turn to Florida but the others are again at the same track as the last run so rainband and all floridians hummmm. :o .
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

wrkh99

#2 Postby wrkh99 » Tue Jul 08, 2003 7:50 pm

it's not just the BAMD :(
0 likes   

Steve H.
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2146
Joined: Sat Oct 19, 2002 9:06 am
Location: Palm Bay, Florida

#3 Postby Steve H. » Tue Jul 08, 2003 7:58 pm

What others then? The LBAR hooks it, but nothing convincing. However, the ULL may tug this a bit north of the projected NHC, which may make it a new ballgame. Its also disturbing the western side of the storm :roll: So will we see a little weakening?? Cheers!!
0 likes   

User avatar
Stormsfury
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10549
Age: 53
Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 6:27 pm
Location: Summerville, SC

#4 Postby Stormsfury » Tue Jul 08, 2003 8:22 pm

The LBAR is an M.O. -- watch to see what the other models do in the next couple of runs ... to see if a trend starts or the LBAR jumps back towards the consensus ... then will find if the LBAR is a Model Outlier or the Model Onto Something ...

However, the 12z global model runs on the Experimental Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields site are obsolete since they were initialized before Claudette was "officially" born but the consensus of those models were a Yucatan hit and re-intensification in the BOC ...

SF
0 likes   

Rainband

Re: Model takes Claudette into Florida but will others follo

#5 Postby Rainband » Tue Jul 08, 2003 8:31 pm

cycloneye wrote:http://www.wright-weather.com/data/wxp/gfdl/tracks/Composite_atlantic_tracks_claudette.gif

This is an update of the models and shows the start of a split on them.The BAMD model takes a sharp turn to Florida but the others are again at the same track as the last run so rainband and all floridians hummmm. :o .
HMM is right :o
0 likes   

User avatar
Toni - 574
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 493
Joined: Wed May 28, 2003 9:20 pm
Location: W. Central Florida

#6 Postby Toni - 574 » Tue Jul 08, 2003 8:38 pm

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Steve wrote:
What others then? The LBAR hooks it, but nothing convincing. However, the ULL may tug this a bit north of the projected NHC, which may make it a new ballgame. Its also disturbing the western side of the storm So will we see a little weakening?? Cheers!!


Yes Steve, the ULL is impacting Claudette a bit now and will most likely cause some weakening,but not enough that she cannot recover. In fact I agree with others that she will be a hurricane and could end up being a major storm. Not sure if I have an opinion on what direction she will head after noseing into the gulf,(imagine that LOL) I will stay safe and say that all GOMERS need to watch. Claudette has just begun.
0 likes   

User avatar
Toni - 574
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 493
Joined: Wed May 28, 2003 9:20 pm
Location: W. Central Florida

Re: Model takes Claudette into Florida but will others follo

#7 Postby Toni - 574 » Tue Jul 08, 2003 8:47 pm

Rainband wrote:
cycloneye wrote:http://www.wright-weather.com/data/wxp/gfdl/tracks/Composite_atlantic_tracks_claudette.gif

This is an update of the models and shows the start of a split on them.The BAMD model takes a sharp turn to Florida but the others are again at the same track as the last run so rainband and all floridians hummmm. :o .
HMM is right :o


I'll second that HMM... Don't know what to say, other than we'll see. Everyone needs to watch this one. You know what they say about those gal's that doesn't have a closed off center.....Hmmmm! LOL
0 likes   

User avatar
crazy4disney
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 100
Age: 58
Joined: Tue May 20, 2003 2:16 pm
Location: Pearland/Friendswood line, TX

#8 Postby crazy4disney » Tue Jul 08, 2003 11:49 pm

It's going to be a loooooong weekend.....

-gina-
0 likes   

User avatar
PTrackerLA
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5277
Age: 41
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 8:40 pm
Location: Lafayette, LA

#9 Postby PTrackerLA » Wed Jul 09, 2003 12:24 am

You're right about that, need to get the sleep in now!
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22978
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Not Florida

#10 Postby wxman57 » Wed Jul 09, 2003 5:46 am

That BAMD track to Florida was a one-time track. I wouldn't put my money on Florida as the lower to mid level ridge is east of Florida, with south winds extending west through the peninsula in the lower to mid levels. That sort of flow wouldn't favor an easterly motion across the eastern Gulf.

I say again, I just have a gut feeling about LA/MS on this one. The ridge breaks down north of Claudette at 72 hours. This could allow that trof dipping south to the Gulf coast to nudge it northward toward LA/MS.

Now, if Claudette stalls far enough south that it isn't picked up, then TX/MX would be more likely (more likely TX than MX). Right now, Florida would be my last pick for landfall for Claudette (the Florida Peninsula, I mean).
0 likes   

User avatar
mitchell
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 408
Joined: Wed Mar 19, 2003 8:22 am
Location: Delaware
Contact:

#11 Postby mitchell » Wed Jul 09, 2003 7:39 am

I heard the statement made that Claudette was the first tropical cyclone to form in the Central Carribean in July in the last 117 years. I want to challenge this a bit:

Didn't the tropical cyclone actually form east of the windwards and get UPGRADED inthe central Caribbean? I mean this storm had cyclonic circulation when it passed the islands - it just wasn't named.

My point is that if being upgraded to TS status is the "record" then I would argue that for the forst half of the past 117 years, the data is pretty much worthless and not robust enough for record keeping. The tropical depression (development) data only goes back to 1949! So there is no official coordinate for when the system made the transition from TD to TS.
0 likes   

User avatar
wx247
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 14279
Age: 41
Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 10:35 pm
Location: Monett, Missouri
Contact:

#12 Postby wx247 » Wed Jul 09, 2003 8:12 am

Claudette is the first tropical cyclone to form in the Central Carib. because that where it was classified by the NHC. When it was east of the islands they could not find a closed low, so while it looked impressive the Hurricane Hunters could not find any information to support it being anything other than an open wave.

Who is to say exactly when and/or where this actually became a tropical depression/storm and not a wave? Just on this board there would be a variance of opinion, therefore we must use the judgment of the official voice for tropical systems the NHC and if they say it is a TS in the C. Carib, then it is so.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
mitchell
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 408
Joined: Wed Mar 19, 2003 8:22 am
Location: Delaware
Contact:

#13 Postby mitchell » Thu Jul 10, 2003 7:39 am

OK, I can live with that. But with NOAA as the arbiter of TS development no way I'm buying the 117 year period of record. NOAA didn't compile information on the transition of a system from TD to TS until 1951.

Prior to that, the data points on the storm tracks are simply best positions of TS. It is clear from the intro to the report that lacking remote sensing such as sat and radar, there would have been no way to know when or where a TS formed - only when and where it was first encountered by man.

I realize its nitpicking :D but to claim a 117 year period of record when the data suggests more like a 50 year period of record is a pretty significant distortion.
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Beef Stew, cycloneye, Google [Bot], Google Adsense [Bot], pepecool20, USTropics and 41 guests