Possible area 4-6 Days down the road?

[SouthFloridawx]

Currently there is a tropical wave with an attached low south of 15N in between 40-45 West.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_12Z.gif



This area currently has little convection associated with the low. I am not thinking that this may develop in the short term but as it gets closer to the Caribbean it may be something we have to watch.

According to the HPC forecast a cold front will be stalled in the Vicinity of the Northern Caribbean days 5-6. If this low is still chugging along out there with not much convection until it meets up with this hold front with the trough axis moving out and High Pressure Building in.

With High pressure moving eastward as the trough does we'll see that high building on top of this wave/low as it nears the islands, this will keep the flow generally moving westward and not allow it to escape to the north.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_072l.gif

I may or may not pan out but, just looking at possibilities down the road in the Caribbean.

[tropicana]

Any other year, I'd get all excited. This year, I know its all been promises promises, new areas to watch down the road..and it never seems to pan out.
I'm not getting excited this time around. No way no how.

[fci]

Nice analysis.
I tend to agree with tropicana that this year, it is unlikely to develop.

We'll wait and see if anything comes of it.
If anything does happen I sure hope it spares Puerto Rico and the surrounding areas of rain as they are pretty inundated already.

[Stormcenter]

No chance, IMO.

[SouthFloridawx]

This wave with an attached low is still chugging along out there at about 45W and 15N

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-rgb.html

TWD graphic showing the surface wave with attached low.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_18Z.gif



This wave may be moving into an area a little more favorable as far as upper and mid level wind shear goes.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

Windshear shouldn't be too bad as it nears 60 - 65 West in a couple of days.

A ridge building over the Caribbean should keep in moving west in three days.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_072m.gif

[wxmann_91]

It's not the shear, it's the vertical instability.

[SouthFloridawx]

It's not the shear, it's the vertical instability.

That was rather vague, care to elaborate?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

NO chance in hell will this become a tropical cyclone. This system is over, the el nino is almost moderate.

[wxmann_91]

It's not the shear, it's the vertical instability.

That was rather vague, care to elaborate?

Hmmm...well then it's the subsidence.

[SouthFloridawx]

I'm only trying to bring up possible area's where development occur in the future.

[MiamiensisWx]

In a nutshell, here are some of my partial thoughts. I would watch for some subtropical development down the road over coming weeks, especially originating from weak to moderate frontal lows. I would monitor the central to west-central Atlantic for this over coming weeks, such as to the north-northwest, north, northeast, and east-northeast of the Leeward Islands, as well as in the deep central to west-central Atlantic waters. I see this as the best potential type of development for much of the remainder of the season, and I believe this may need to be monitored. As the shearing synoptics may be too unfavorable at the middle levels for more tropical development down the road, we may see some subtropical development; thus, I'd say one (maybe two) more named systems this year, though no more.

[MiamiensisWx]

By the way, as for possible development of this weak surface to middle-level low via sporadic convective organization and flareups, I personally doubt this area, associated with a very weak wave axis, will develop down the road due to hostile mid-level shearing flow and synoptics, as evidenced on current visible and water vapor imagery loops and downstream synoptics. I don't really see any development, tropical or subtropical, of this.

[Derek Ortt]

subsidence implies vertical stability

[SouthFloridawx]

This area flared up earlier today and TPC placed a low attached to the wave again.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_18Z.gif

I know that some are saying subsidence will not allow this to make it but, shear is not going to be too bad in the Caribbean during the next few days and with a stalled front in the North C. and nothing else in the Atlantic I'm just jotting down my thoughts here.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif
72 Hour Surface Forecast.




http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-rb.html


http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi ... =Animation

[Weathermaster]

This tropical wave has increase in shower activity and some banding could be seen in visible sat. images. It looks like a small vortex is near 14.9N 58.5W latitude. Is there any chance of something bigger to form? I do not see any strong wind shear near that area.

[Chacor]

Low to zero 850-500mb wind shear per the 06Z GFS but about 15-20 kt of shear at the 850-200mb level.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I agree.

I doubt we'll see anything tropical form this month, or even next month for that matter. I think the season is done.

[SouthFloridawx]

We're seeing some stuff pop out there... wonder where the front will be when the trough pulls out?