Possible area 4-6 Days down the road?

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
SouthFloridawx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8346
Age: 46
Joined: Tue Jul 26, 2005 1:16 am
Location: Sarasota, FL
Contact:

Possible area 4-6 Days down the road?

#1 Postby SouthFloridawx » Fri Oct 20, 2006 4:09 pm

Currently there is a tropical wave with an attached low south of 15N in between 40-45 West.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_12Z.gif

Image

This area currently has little convection associated with the low. I am not thinking that this may develop in the short term but as it gets closer to the Caribbean it may be something we have to watch.

According to the HPC forecast a cold front will be stalled in the Vicinity of the Northern Caribbean days 5-6. If this low is still chugging along out there with not much convection until it meets up with this hold front with the trough axis moving out and High Pressure Building in.

With High pressure moving eastward as the trough does we'll see that high building on top of this wave/low as it nears the islands, this will keep the flow generally moving westward and not allow it to escape to the north.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_072l.gif

I may or may not pan out but, just looking at possibilities down the road in the Caribbean.
0 likes   

User avatar
tropicana
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8056
Joined: Sat Sep 27, 2003 6:48 pm
Location: Niagara Falls, Ontario, Canada
Contact:

#2 Postby tropicana » Fri Oct 20, 2006 5:04 pm

Any other year, I'd get all excited. This year, I know its all been promises promises, new areas to watch down the road..and it never seems to pan out.
I'm not getting excited this time around. No way no how.
0 likes   

User avatar
fci
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3324
Joined: Tue Sep 14, 2004 10:29 am
Location: Lake Worth, FL

#3 Postby fci » Fri Oct 20, 2006 5:10 pm

Nice analysis.
I tend to agree with tropicana that this year, it is unlikely to develop.

We'll wait and see if anything comes of it.
If anything does happen I sure hope it spares Puerto Rico and the surrounding areas of rain as they are pretty inundated already.
0 likes   

Stormcenter
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6685
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:27 am
Location: Houston, TX

#4 Postby Stormcenter » Sat Oct 21, 2006 2:15 am

No chance, IMO.
0 likes   

User avatar
SouthFloridawx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8346
Age: 46
Joined: Tue Jul 26, 2005 1:16 am
Location: Sarasota, FL
Contact:

#5 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sat Oct 21, 2006 7:37 pm

This wave with an attached low is still chugging along out there at about 45W and 15N

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-rgb.html

TWD graphic showing the surface wave with attached low.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_18Z.gif

Image

This wave may be moving into an area a little more favorable as far as upper and mid level wind shear goes.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

Windshear shouldn't be too bad as it nears 60 - 65 West in a couple of days.

A ridge building over the Caribbean should keep in moving west in three days.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_072m.gif
0 likes   

User avatar
wxmann_91
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8013
Age: 34
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2005 2:49 pm
Location: Southern California
Contact:

#6 Postby wxmann_91 » Sat Oct 21, 2006 7:39 pm

It's not the shear, it's the vertical instability.
0 likes   

User avatar
SouthFloridawx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8346
Age: 46
Joined: Tue Jul 26, 2005 1:16 am
Location: Sarasota, FL
Contact:

#7 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sat Oct 21, 2006 7:41 pm

wxmann_91 wrote:It's not the shear, it's the vertical instability.


That was rather vague, care to elaborate?

Image
0 likes   

Matt-hurricanewatcher

#8 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Oct 21, 2006 7:56 pm

NO chance in hell will this become a tropical cyclone. This system is over, the el nino is almost moderate.
0 likes   

User avatar
wxmann_91
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8013
Age: 34
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2005 2:49 pm
Location: Southern California
Contact:

#9 Postby wxmann_91 » Sat Oct 21, 2006 9:09 pm

SouthFloridawx wrote:
wxmann_91 wrote:It's not the shear, it's the vertical instability.


That was rather vague, care to elaborate?

Image


Hmmm...well then it's the subsidence.
0 likes   

User avatar
SouthFloridawx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8346
Age: 46
Joined: Tue Jul 26, 2005 1:16 am
Location: Sarasota, FL
Contact:

#10 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sat Oct 21, 2006 10:32 pm

I'm only trying to bring up possible area's where development occur in the future.
0 likes   

MiamiensisWx

#11 Postby MiamiensisWx » Sat Oct 21, 2006 10:38 pm

In a nutshell, here are some of my partial thoughts. I would watch for some subtropical development down the road over coming weeks, especially originating from weak to moderate frontal lows. I would monitor the central to west-central Atlantic for this over coming weeks, such as to the north-northwest, north, northeast, and east-northeast of the Leeward Islands, as well as in the deep central to west-central Atlantic waters. I see this as the best potential type of development for much of the remainder of the season, and I believe this may need to be monitored. As the shearing synoptics may be too unfavorable at the middle levels for more tropical development down the road, we may see some subtropical development; thus, I'd say one (maybe two) more named systems this year, though no more.
0 likes   

MiamiensisWx

#12 Postby MiamiensisWx » Sat Oct 21, 2006 10:55 pm

By the way, as for possible development of this weak surface to middle-level low via sporadic convective organization and flareups, I personally doubt this area, associated with a very weak wave axis, will develop down the road due to hostile mid-level shearing flow and synoptics, as evidenced on current visible and water vapor imagery loops and downstream synoptics. I don't really see any development, tropical or subtropical, of this.
0 likes   

Derek Ortt

#13 Postby Derek Ortt » Sun Oct 22, 2006 10:45 am

subsidence implies vertical stability
0 likes   

User avatar
SouthFloridawx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8346
Age: 46
Joined: Tue Jul 26, 2005 1:16 am
Location: Sarasota, FL
Contact:

#14 Postby SouthFloridawx » Mon Oct 23, 2006 12:14 am

This area flared up earlier today and TPC placed a low attached to the wave again.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_18Z.gif

I know that some are saying subsidence will not allow this to make it but, shear is not going to be too bad in the Caribbean during the next few days and with a stalled front in the North C. and nothing else in the Atlantic I'm just jotting down my thoughts here.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif
72 Hour Surface Forecast. :uarrow: :uarrow:

Image


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-rb.html


http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi ... =Animation

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Weathermaster
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 79
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 10:33 am
Location: Carolina, PR

#15 Postby Weathermaster » Tue Oct 24, 2006 8:50 am

This tropical wave has increase in shower activity and some banding could be seen in visible sat. images. It looks like a small vortex is near 14.9N 58.5W latitude. Is there any chance of something bigger to form? I do not see any strong wind shear near that area.
0 likes   

User avatar
Chacor
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10229
Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2006 10:43 pm
Location: Singapore

#16 Postby Chacor » Tue Oct 24, 2006 9:40 am

Low to zero 850-500mb wind shear per the 06Z GFS but about 15-20 kt of shear at the 850-200mb level.
0 likes   

User avatar
Hybridstorm_November2001
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2813
Joined: Sat Aug 21, 2004 2:50 pm
Location: SW New Brunswick, Canada
Contact:

#17 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Tue Oct 24, 2006 11:05 am

I agree.

I doubt we'll see anything tropical form this month, or even next month for that matter. I think the season is done.
0 likes   

User avatar
SouthFloridawx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8346
Age: 46
Joined: Tue Jul 26, 2005 1:16 am
Location: Sarasota, FL
Contact:

#18 Postby SouthFloridawx » Wed Oct 25, 2006 6:22 pm

We're seeing some stuff pop out there... wonder where the front will be when the trough pulls out?
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: 869MB, Cpv17, Ian2401, Keldeo1997, LAF92, Pelicane, SFLcane, skillz305, Stormi and 68 guests