It Is Alive ....

#1 Postby **Portastorm** » Tue Jul 22, 2003 7:45 am

Hey, looks like our recently departed Tropical Depression #6 is making a bit of a comeback this morning west of the Lesser Antilles. Check out the morning satellite loops on your favorite site.

Guest · #2 Postby **Guest** » Tue Jul 22, 2003 7:52 am

Definitely increased cloud convection. Blobology 101 returns. Has to reform its LLC to be anything tropical - still dry air in front of it - but time will tell if TD6 survives! And plus Scott is still running maps on it - so it must be something!

Patricia

#3 Postby **vbhoutex** » Tue Jul 22, 2003 7:59 am

ticka1 wrote:Definitely increased cloud convection. Blobology 101 returns. Has to reform its LLC to be anything tropical - still dry air in front of it - but time will tell if TD6 survives! And plus Scott is still running maps on it - so it must be something!

Patricia

Unfortunately, tropical disturbances like this seldom just dry up and go away, even though it has happened. Due to it's apparent tenacity(ala Claudette) ALL S FL and GOM interests need to monitor former TD #6 as it progresses westward.

Personally, I was hoping for a respite for a few weeks till we approach the peak of the season in 6 weeks. Oh well! :roll:

Guest · #4 Postby **Guest** » Tue Jul 22, 2003 8:04 am

David,

Rest for the Weary!!!! This is what we wait for each spring - this high level of stress watching the tropics. I am taking advantage of this down time and trying to relax and catchup on my sleep.

Patricia

#5 Postby **Portastorm** » Tue Jul 22, 2003 8:15 am

For what its worth, Bastardi this morning thinks this system will be a player for Florida and maybe even up the east side. He sees it moving more northwest shortly, regardless of development or not.

Interestingly enough, I just read the forecast discussions from the mets in south Florida and they aren't convinced this system would be a player for them.

Will be interesting to see how far south it stays .... and yes, that dry air and westerly shear ahead of it looks rather menacing.

Toni - 574 · #6 Postby **Toni - 574** » Tue Jul 22, 2003 8:19 am

ticka1 wrote:David,

Rest for the Weary!!!! This is what we wait for each spring - this high level of stress watching the tropics. I am taking advantage of this down time and trying to relax and catchup on my sleep.

Patricia

Hey Ticka, I know what you mean. I am on vacation right now but have to return to work on Monday :cry:

, so I have been able to stay up late and track #6. Haven't gotten much done from my list of things to do. Maybe I can now, at least for a few days. Still think #6 will return, don't have a clue as what it will end up being at this point. Looks like she has taken a little dip to the south to get a drink of water and to keep herself going. Should know more tomorrow what her intensions are as she enters into the westem caribbean.

GulfBreezer · #7 Postby **GulfBreezer** » Tue Jul 22, 2003 8:24 am

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

She is sure trying to make a comeback, which I think she will at some point, but I also think we will see more break up b4 she gets it together. At least this way she will have a shorter length of time to strengthen b4 she decides what land mass she is going to invade.

#8 Postby **bfez1** » Tue Jul 22, 2003 9:00 am

Local met here is saying it is not expected to redevelop.
:roll:

#9 Postby **Portastorm** » Tue Jul 22, 2003 12:01 pm

OK gang, I'm either seeing things or this system is developing a low level circulation that is moving almost due west.

Check out the last few clips of the floater satellite image.

While the convection is being blown northward somewhat, there seems to be a low level center spinning up.

Either that or I'm guilty of -removed-.

#10 Postby **Air Force Met** » Tue Jul 22, 2003 12:32 pm

I think you are seeing things. There is some cyclonic turning...but I doubt seriously if there are any west winds. Winds in that area are pretty strong from the east. It will have to slow down and get out from the shear before any LLC will develop. I look for some better conditions in the NW Car or the eastern GOM. It will slow down some by then and the shear should relax.

It will be interesting to watch. Steering will be pretty weak over the GOM later this week and into the weekend. If it does develop into a strong TS or Hurricane while over the GOM...it will likely be steered northward towards the central / NE Gom coast due to an upper low which will be located over the NW GOM.

#11 Postby **vbhoutex** » Tue Jul 22, 2003 12:38 pm

Portastorm wrote:OK gang, I'm either seeing things or this system is developing a low level circulation that is moving almost due west.

Check out the last few clips of the floater satellite image.

While the convection is being blown northward somewhat, there seems to be a low level center spinning up.

Either that or I'm guilty of -removed-.

Maybe slightly guilty, but I will reserve judgement. :lol:

I think I see what you are talking about and I do not believe it is a LLCC. Interestingly recon is currently scheduled to fly tomorrow at 17N, 74W, so if they go we will see. Haven't checked the quikscat yet since I didn't see enough to make me want to. GB you are right about the up and down on this one, since the weather ahead of it is not particularly conducive to development ATT, but I am sure not going to count it out till I know It is gone!!!!

#12 Postby **Portastorm** » Tue Jul 22, 2003 1:24 pm

<sigh>

Good points all. I need to learn to not get so excited over a few frames of infrared satellite. Obviously there is a lot more at play when considering the regeneration of a tropical system.

ColdFront77 · #13 Postby **ColdFront77** » Wed Jul 23, 2003 4:05 am

Exactly right, David... like I have been saying right along, tropical systems should not have a high confidence level... in the case with Tropical Depression 6, the falling apart when there is still evidence of the system on satellite loops.

Wind shear can move away from and lower, at the same time dry air exists and can become more moist. This is something to watch and we are watching it.

It Is Alive ....

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