It Is Alive ....
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- Portastorm
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It Is Alive ....
Hey, looks like our recently departed Tropical Depression #6 is making a bit of a comeback this morning west of the Lesser Antilles. Check out the morning satellite loops on your favorite site.
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- vbhoutex
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ticka1 wrote:Definitely increased cloud convection. Blobology 101 returns. Has to reform its LLC to be anything tropical - still dry air in front of it - but time will tell if TD6 survives! And plus Scott is still running maps on it - so it must be something!
Patricia
Unfortunately, tropical disturbances like this seldom just dry up and go away, even though it has happened. Due to it's apparent tenacity(ala Claudette) ALL S FL and GOM interests need to monitor former TD #6 as it progresses westward.
Personally, I was hoping for a respite for a few weeks till we approach the peak of the season in 6 weeks. Oh well!

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- Portastorm
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For what its worth, Bastardi this morning thinks this system will be a player for Florida and maybe even up the east side. He sees it moving more northwest shortly, regardless of development or not.
Interestingly enough, I just read the forecast discussions from the mets in south Florida and they aren't convinced this system would be a player for them.
Will be interesting to see how far south it stays .... and yes, that dry air and westerly shear ahead of it looks rather menacing.
Interestingly enough, I just read the forecast discussions from the mets in south Florida and they aren't convinced this system would be a player for them.
Will be interesting to see how far south it stays .... and yes, that dry air and westerly shear ahead of it looks rather menacing.
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- Toni - 574
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ticka1 wrote:David,
Rest for the Weary!!!! This is what we wait for each spring - this high level of stress watching the tropics. I am taking advantage of this down time and trying to relax and catchup on my sleep.
Patricia
Hey Ticka, I know what you mean. I am on vacation right now but have to return to work on Monday

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- GulfBreezer
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
She is sure trying to make a comeback, which I think she will at some point, but I also think we will see more break up b4 she gets it together. At least this way she will have a shorter length of time to strengthen b4 she decides what land mass she is going to invade.
She is sure trying to make a comeback, which I think she will at some point, but I also think we will see more break up b4 she gets it together. At least this way she will have a shorter length of time to strengthen b4 she decides what land mass she is going to invade.
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- Portastorm
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OK gang, I'm either seeing things or this system is developing a low level circulation that is moving almost due west.
Check out the last few clips of the floater satellite image.
While the convection is being blown northward somewhat, there seems to be a low level center spinning up.
Either that or I'm guilty of -removed-.
Check out the last few clips of the floater satellite image.
While the convection is being blown northward somewhat, there seems to be a low level center spinning up.
Either that or I'm guilty of -removed-.
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I think you are seeing things. There is some cyclonic turning...but I doubt seriously if there are any west winds. Winds in that area are pretty strong from the east. It will have to slow down and get out from the shear before any LLC will develop. I look for some better conditions in the NW Car or the eastern GOM. It will slow down some by then and the shear should relax.
It will be interesting to watch. Steering will be pretty weak over the GOM later this week and into the weekend. If it does develop into a strong TS or Hurricane while over the GOM...it will likely be steered northward towards the central / NE Gom coast due to an upper low which will be located over the NW GOM.
It will be interesting to watch. Steering will be pretty weak over the GOM later this week and into the weekend. If it does develop into a strong TS or Hurricane while over the GOM...it will likely be steered northward towards the central / NE Gom coast due to an upper low which will be located over the NW GOM.
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- vbhoutex
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Portastorm wrote:OK gang, I'm either seeing things or this system is developing a low level circulation that is moving almost due west.
Check out the last few clips of the floater satellite image.
While the convection is being blown northward somewhat, there seems to be a low level center spinning up.
Either that or I'm guilty of -removed-.
Maybe slightly guilty, but I will reserve judgement.


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- Portastorm
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Exactly right, David... like I have been saying right along, tropical systems should not have a high confidence level... in the case with Tropical Depression 6, the falling apart when there is still evidence of the system on satellite loops.
Wind shear can move away from and lower, at the same time dry air exists and can become more moist. This is something to watch and we are watching it.
Wind shear can move away from and lower, at the same time dry air exists and can become more moist. This is something to watch and we are watching it.

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